Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Reverted Al Brooks Method but Switched to S&R halfway through Session

R-1.43   £-27.25
Trend down = initial bias short
TLB =  bias remains short but prepared for reversal
1. Short RL to range lows on tick below LSH.  Plan Okay,  Execution good (NB took extra size by accident , thought my sell stop hadn't triggered) R-1
2. Reversal long/Buy first PB after TLB (HL) on tick above LSH. Plan good/bad (started trade with Brooks Method,  reverted to S&R method halfway through),  Execution good (I entered correctly with Brooks method, and exited correctly with S&R method at 3)
3. (incorrect should have still been holding 2 until bar 4.) Short RL to range highs on tick below HSL. Plan poor (switched to S&R method), Execution good (I traded the S&R plan method well, and exited on realisation of error).

January 2014 Summary

PL: R-12.73%           £-283.20



Closed Trade P/L:-283.20



Balance:1 941.96Equity:1 941.96Free Margin:1 941.96
Details:
Gross Profit:228.34Gross Loss:511.54Total Net Profit:-283.20
Profit Factor:0.45Expected Payoff:-4.97
Absolute Drawdown:283.20Maximal Drawdown:283.20 (12.73%)Relative Drawdown:12.73% (283.20)
Total Trades:57



Profit Trades (% of total):13 (22.81%)Loss trades (% of total):44 (77.19%)





Week 1: First BE week (Al Brooks),
Week 2: A spate of overtrading (S&R trading),
Week 3: a spate of Poor Entries (S&R trading),
Week 4: NA an emotional write off ending in a me seeking some professional help (S&R trading).

Summary: it's very clear to see from the equity curve above that problems began when I changed my plan from an Al Brooks Method to a purely S&R method so I am just going to revert back to the former method...

Psychology: As I write this on Tuesday evening I am starting to feel myself again.  I had a couple of hard weeks at the end of the month (I should probably say I gave myself a hard couple of weeks at the end of the month) and ended up in a bad place both mentally and physically. The specifics don't really matter, what matters was I had a melt down ultimately because I saw plan failure as personal failure,  put a daily equity curve on each post and graded my trades incorrectly. 
1. The fact is plan failure is not personal failure as one must follow a plan to see if it works, this is success (even if the result is unsatisfactory) because one has successfully tested it and can either make amendments to it or write it off and create a new one.
2. Looking at my equity curve at the end of each day has been a very sobering but ultimately good thing because it has given me far greater insight as to where problems are developing, for example my short summary above. But because...
3. I was grading my trades incorrectly I took the failure personally rather than placing the blame on the plan (where it belonged). This month I graded trades on 1 prep,2 patience and 3 discipline all of which are about personal performance. Fact is there are only 2 things to grade in a trade. 1 the plan that created it and 2. the execution of the plan. Sure I still made some personal mistakes but the fact is a lot of the losses and over-trading were attributable to the plan rather than my efforts and where the blame should have been placed.

The S&R Method definitely created over-trading and I found this quote by Brooks that I thought might be quite useful.
"when you're about to take any trade, always ask yourself  if the set-up is one of the best of the day. is this the one that institutions have been waiting for all day? if the answer is no and you are not a consistently profitable trader, then you should not take the trade either. if you have 2 consecutive losers within 15 mins or so,  ask yourself if those were trades that the institutions have been waiting hours to take. if the answer is no , you are over-trading,  and you need to become more patient."

Monday, 27 January 2014

My trading goes to pot after 0830?!

PL R-3    £-60.21


Summary:  okay this morning started relatively well then all went to hell in the 2nd hour of my session. I don't know why this has only just occurred to me but I thought this happens all the bloody time. So I went back over my AM sessions and tallied it up to realize that after 0830 my results turn to shite and this is mostly due to the action getting choppy and triggering lots of SAR trades. So I'm going to try out just trading from 0720-0830GMT. I also had a look at the US session but it appears that it is best to trade it 1330 as per usual but ending a little earlier might do some good as the US session slows a little, about 1415. This doesn't mean I should close all trades at 0830/1415,  but I shouldn't take any new ones, letting the current ones play out.
Another thing that I realized , again stupidly late.  Is that my longs are worse than my shorts because I have the 1.5pip spread to make up on them each time.  So although I'm not going to stop trading them I should probably do so with a PT devised from the actual entry rather than entry + spread.
I should stop trading after 2% loss (trade7) because it's just soul destroying  looking a -3% losses.
Finally I can get in on already triggered trades, if they return to the entry level.  Using the same risk as the original trade but updating the stop level to current action to minimise risk.
Trade from 0720-0830GMT&1330-1415GMT, take spread into account on long PTs, get in past trades with original size but minimized risk.  Quit for day after a 2% loss.
  

1. Missed this long PB to prior PBLs (not at screen) might want to start 0720GMT
2. Saw this one but this short was based off S&R not on my current chart so avoided, maybe unwisely (can track back a little).
3. Long off PB to prior PBLs, Entry tick, Exit counter trade triggered (off PC) might be incorrect?! R+0.4 
4-9 occurred after 0830...
4. Short off test of (PC)RLH,  Entry tick,  Exit SAR at 5. R-0.7
5.  SAR long of 4 as price makes a LSH at R. Entry tick,  Exit counter trade triggered R-0.2
6. Short off test of prior RLHs,  Entry Tick, exit SAR at 7. R-0.8
7. SAR long of 6 as price makes a LSH at R,  Entry tick R-0.7
8. Short off test of RLHs,  Entry tick, Exit Stop R-0.9
9. Missed long off prior, just had enough/ quit for day.
NY Session
10. Shorted off prior RL high,  exit TSL R -0.1
11.  saw but avoided long off PB low.

Saturday, 25 January 2014

Weekly Summary 250114 : A Spate of Poor Entries

PL: R-4.2   £-72.87


Closed Trade P/L:-72.87



Equity:2 002.17Free Margin:2 002.17
 
Details:
Gross Profit:54.67Gross Loss:127.54Total Net Profit:-72.87
Profit Factor:0.43Expected Payoff:-5.21 
Absolute Drawdown:87.10Maximal Drawdown:106.48 (5.08%)Relative Drawdown:5.08% (106.48)
 
Total Trades:14Short Positions (won %):6 (16.67%)Long Positions (won %):8 (25.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):3 (21.43%)Loss trades (% of total):11 (78.57%)


SUMMARY: Friday says it all "The general strategy of trading off a recent level when tested is effective but the technicalities of how I execute the trades has been the issue". Last week I was over-trading. This week I managed to reign in the overtrading but I was still executing the action poorly. The two areas are Entry's and Exits. But I have been learning throughout the week and have some fixes to apply.

POSITIVES
1. Money management
2. Cutting down the overtrading
3. Working on the execution of the strategy.

NEGATIVES
The Entry issues have been 
1. trading off old (untested levels) levels,
2. trading triggers that are detached from/grazed a level,
3. trading inside bars.
4.trading triggers that have only grazed a level less than 0.5pip penetration
The Exit issues have been
5. Discretionary exits. be they greed/fear based or
6.  due to poor counter entries listed above.

FIXES
1. Don't trade old levels, infact don't even mark them,  only trade the levels you can see on your screen
2+4: Only trade triggers that are incontact with a level and penetrated by at least 0.5 pips (you want to see some clear wick on the otherside).
3. at least for the time being stop trading inside bars.
5+6. Only exit on TSL or genuine counter signal (see 1,2+4)

ADDITIONS
Good or bad, anything can happen so do not try and predict what the market is going to do. Let it tell you when to enter and tell you when to exit.

"I'm trying to enter the day with no bias and just trade/flow with what the market gives/does, as I'm coming to the realization that even when trend trading there are times when I will be fighting the market (at reversals)".

"I do not need to know the specifics of what is going to happen each day. I just need to know that the market will create something everyday, and all I have to do is flow with it."

"simplicity, prep and context beat convoluted, fancy and intricate"


SUMMARY OF TRADES/TRADING
Monday: When setting PT's use R2 as a guide but base the actually off the nearest price context. Use most recent levels, forget old ones. They will only be tested and it is this updated level you should be trading from. Stop discretionary exiting!
M1. Good Entry ,  Good Exit (TSL, could have discetionary for 2% though) 
M2. Poor Entry (old R), Exit Good
M3. Poor Entry (SAR had detaached from R),  Exit Good
M4. Good Entry , Poor Exit (discretionary)
Tuesday:Very frustrated as I'm getting shaken out of correct trades due to counter signals rather than fear. Check to make sure price has really reached a level before using it. Once in a trade only exit on your stop being hit or a counter trigger off another, valid level.
T1. Poor Entry (price not in contact with level) Exit good
T2. Poor Entry (price not in contact with level) Exit good
T3. Good Entry , Poor Exit (inside bar / discretionary)
T4. Poor Entry (inside bar).  Good Exit
Wednesday: Despite tempting, stop trading off old S/R levels, (trade the recent ones) wait for the test and trade off the test level it's more accurate! and for the time being avoid trading inside bars as of these both of these are knocking you out of holding good trades.
W1: Poor Entry (Old level), Exit good
W2: Poor entry (inside bar), Exit good
W3.Poor entry (inside bar), Exit good
Thursday: Good or bad, anything can happen so do not try and predict what the market is going to do. Let it tell you when to enter and tell you when to exit. 
Th1: Good Entry, Poor Exit (discretionary)
Friday: you want to see some clear wick on the otherside of the level on your trigger.The general strategy of trading off a recent level when tested is effective but technicalities of how I execute the trades is the issue.
F1: Good entry, Poor Exit (counter trade triggered with only a graze of a level)
F2. Poor Entry (trigger only grazed level), Good Exit


SWINGS: NA

Friday, 24 January 2014

Execution Additions

PL: R-0.9     £-18.33

Summary: The trigger of 2 was a HM that barely grazed the prior PBL level then triggered, this trade eventually got stopped out. I've had this happen before, despite working as triggers a deeper penetration would likely have made this trigger more successful.  Perhaps triggers should not only require that they touch the level but an imposed penetration requirement of say 0.5 pip (you want to see some clear wick on the otherside of the level) should be asked for confirming an actual "test". A "touch" would literally being a graze of the level and should not be traded. Had this been appiled  I could have held (1) on a TSL through the congestion. The general strategy of trading off a recent level when tested is effective but technicalities of how I execute the trades is the issue.

Green Arrows = Entries  Red Arrows = Exits

1. Short off test of prior RLHs,  entry tick blw prior bar low, Exit trade 2 triggered. R+0.1
2. Long off test of prior PBLs,  entry tick abv prior bar high, Exit ISL. R-1

Thursday, 23 January 2014

Did all the work but got off the ride early.

PL: R+1.7   £+32.56

Psychology: I was thinking today that I'm probably insane. The reason for this is that in the last 3 months and still now, I actually believe I'm going to make it, despite all my results saying otherwise. Is that faith, insanity or both?  I don't know, I don't even know if it matters, it's just a thought... However having said all that you might have noticed I was a little perturbed yesterday, "youfuckingfuck" rarely comes out of the bag. So there was definitely some kind of disconnect from this "faith" yesterday. To clarify I wanted to throw my laptop out of the window then piss on it. 
Yesterday I have never felt so frustrated and disheartened. The nearest I can sum it up to is the following, and in this exact order... 1. Really needing to take a shit. 2. Wanting hit something until it dies, 3. Wanting to inflict failure on my liver and 4. Wanting a cuddle from my mum.  Those words of JMF3  rang in my ears night "it's not easy, but it's not complicated" and he's right. This is why this game can hurt ones pride and cause so much frustration. As when you try your hardest at something that is simple in nature, you feel like a complete c*** when you fail.
Anyway feeling a bit happier today. Had a drink last night, a shit this morning,  got a hug from my mum and I'm just off to kill something.

BTW big thanks for all the comments. Note to fellow traders putting "Emotional" in your blog title is like turning on the "trading bat signal" :-) 

Summary:  You got to laugh and I did. Better entry, fucked the exit by getting scared and using a discretionary exit not letting the market tell me when to get out. Laird Hamilton's quote sums it up: “If you just get out of your own way... it's amazing what will come to you”. And I got all over this trade ;-).
Good or bad, anything can happen so do not try and predict what the market is going to do. Let it tell you when to enter and tell you when to exit. 

1. Long on PB to prior PBL,  entry tick abv prior low (actually much late than that, my fault) Exit discretionary just lost my nerve with the TSLs (guess I was just desperate for some gains). R+1.7

Wednesday, 22 January 2014

An Emotional Day!

PL: R-1.6   £-29.45

 Summary:  Again I find myself in another hole and a quandary, what I really mean is "fuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckahhhhhhhhhhhhyoufuckingfuck".
 The best trade today (0) and yesterday for that matter occurred outside my session, so I'm going to revert back to starting at 0730GMT. I traded (1) long off an old ON level and got punished for it,  mea culpa ( i really should to be trading off recent levels). (2) was BW but the highs and lows made within it were still valid making the short at (3) from the prior RLH  a perfectly good short,  but I avoided it out of respect/fear of the BW. (4+5) are where the confusion came in and continue to try me. Price tested the PBLs from (1) and ticked above the prior inside bar, so I took a long entry at (4) assuming a potential "W". Then price reversed and ticked below the lows of the inside bar making (5) a SAR(stop and reverse) short. The only thing I can think to cancel out this over trading is to either stop trading inside bars or SARs, both of which I don't really want to do. But if I had to choose It would be to cut out the inside bar trades  because this would cut out (4) which was a poor trade, whereas cutting out SARs would eliminate (5) which was technically correct.  I'll do this at least for the time being and ensure the trigger remains at the level's test extreme low/high. (6) was more BW so avoided the long at 7 that tested the the PBLs of (1) and I should have bought on a tick above the highs prior to 7. Despite tempting, stop trading off old S/R levels, (trade the recent ones) wait for the test and trade off the test level it's more accurate! and for the time being avoid trading inside bars as both of these are knocking you out of holding good trades.


0. Missed Short off RL to prior highs
1.  Long on PB to ON low, entry 1 tick above prior bar, exit on BW formation. Prep, Patience, Discipline good R-0.3
2. BW , 3+ overlapping bars,  just reminded me of the agony yesterday, waiting this out...
3.  Avoided MAYBE INCORRECTLY this short from prior Hi as it developed in BW so dubious over it's strength.
4. Long on test of prior lows, entry one tick abv prior bar, exit on imd SAR Prep, Patience, Discipline good R-0.8
5. SAR Short (4),  entry 1 tick blw prior bar, EXIT discretionary not concentrating! Prep, Patience Good Discipline BAD R-0.4
6. BW , 3+ overlapping bars,  just reminded me of the agony yesterday, waiting this out...
7. Avoided because of the BW

Tuesday, 21 January 2014

READ and further thoughts on this AM

RE this AM:  I have come to the conclusion, maybe incorrectly but through as logical thinking that I can muster that...

If I have entered at a solid S/R level on good confirmation and price does not SAR immediately (NB a SAR must occur imd after the entry and preferably still be on the level, not off it), then I have likely got it right and it is more important for me to concentrate on (holding until price reverses at another S/R level) not getting shaken out, than taking fake secondary signals that will in no way be as strong as my initial entry and will likely just be shake outs. 

I must not buy on Hi wave candles

Stop Loss thoughts (from the past)
1. I will place ISL at the other extreme of the trigger bar + spread.
2. I will SAR if and only if  the reversal happens imd after entry and price is (preferrably) still in contact with the level. If price has detached from the level then only a close confirmation should be considered.
3. I will commence TSL when current bar closes beyond the trigger extreme +spread.
3.1 will Then TSL everytime price closes beyond the extreme of the prior with trade candle.
4. I will NEVER place a TSL on a NRB,doji or bars that gap.
5. I will Only exit discretionary if and when price meets another valid area of S/R and confirms a reversal.


Very Frustrated! Poor Prep

PL: R-2.2    £-45.51



Summary: Very frustrated as I'm getting shaken out of correct trades due to counter signals rather than fear. I want to yell and scream but more so I want to fix it!... Correctly got long at 1 as price tested prior low.  Then got what I thought was a  reversal signal at 2, in fact price didn't quite test the underside of this level making 2 an invalid short. 3 was a valid re-entry long but then 4 gave what I thought was a valid counter signal short after a test of the highs at 2,  but the high I was using was created in BW (pink ellipse) so was dubious at best as a level.  Price finally RL to the lows of a prior PB and made a valid short down 5 which I avoided, of course that would have got me BE. POOR PREP!
Got to...
1. Stop trading SARs because they are locking me out of good trades.
2. ask JMF3 for a def on how to use SARs correctly.
3. Label BW, give it a wide birth and treat its S/R levels with contempt.
4. check to make sure price has really reached a level before using it.
5. Once in a trade only exit your stop being hit or a counter trigger off another, valid level.  


Drew S&R levels and updated
1. Long off PB to prior lows with big volume HM. Good Prep and Patience, Poor Discipline (discretionary exit) R-0.5
NB: price enters BW (3 or more overlapping bars at least one a doji) should have avoided trading until this had cleared.
2. SAR short on RL back to S/R level and tick below prior low Poor Prep and Patience (price in BW),Good Discipline  R-0.8
3. SAR long on PB test of prior lows and tick abv prior high R-0.2
4. SAR Short on on RL testor prior highs and tick blw prior low R-0.8
5. Missed. Short off RL to prior high

Monday, 20 January 2014

Don't trade off old levels, Trade off updates of these levels

PL: R-0.6    £-12.14

Summary: An improvement from Thursday and Friday. Less trades and a smaller loss. Still some persisting issues.  Firstly I'm being too precise on my PTs. I'm going for R+2s but am not taking context (which is the most important thing) into account. In the long at (1) price nearly hit my PT which I had placed just above an area of R, of course price hit R then reversed and took out my stop so a profit of very nearly R+2 turned into R+1. I must not be so anal, I was not listening to price / context because I was projecting unrealistic hopes onto the market. Secondly a fair amount of my overtrading is coming from taking trades from old levels rather than the most recent ones.  3 was a good example of this.  Price tested an old R level from last week and I took a short off it. However I really should have updated the level to the most recent test of it and then shorted it at a test of this updated level. (5) was correct but (3) was wrong and because of this so was (4) making 2 poor trades out of one. Finally messed up 5 by taking a discretionary exit instead of TSL.
When setting PT's use R2 as a guide but base the actually off the nearest price context. Use most recent levels, forget old ones. They will only be tested and it is this updated level you should be trading from. Stop discretionary exiting! 


Prep:  drawing S&R levels and updating when tested.
Patience:  to wait for a level to be tested
Discipline to take the trade setup when confirmed, up date the level and TSL correctly.

1.  Long on test of prior PBL. Exit TSL got shook because too greedy. Prep, Patience, Discipline Good (could have been less greedy) R+1
2.  Highs I wanted, was going for R2 which was just above this level of R, should have been less greedy/precise and taken R1.8 at this level it was near enough!
3.  Short on test of old R and confirmation Prep, Patience,  Discipline Good R-0.8 Can't argue that I didn't trade my plan however I think the short at 5's test of recent R had a better chance of working out than that of the Old R test.  
4. SAR Long on failed Short at 3. Prep, Patience,  Discipline Good R-0.3 Again can't argue that I didn't trade my plan but I'm not convinced I should have traded 3 so 4s SAR would of course invalid too in that case.
5. Short on test of prior RLHs Prep& Patience Good,  Discipline POOR (discretionary exit) R-0.5 

Saturday, 18 January 2014

Weekly Summary 180114: A Spate of Over-trading

PL: R-6.69   £-144.08




Closed Trade P/L:-144.08Floating P/L:0.00Margin:0.00
Balance:2 075.04Equity:2 075.04Free Margin:2 075.04
Details:
Gross Profit:110.98Gross Loss:255.06Total Net Profit:-144.08
Profit Factor:0.44Expected Payoff:-4.80
Absolute Drawdown:144.08Maximal Drawdown:148.88 (6.69%)Relative Drawdown:6.69% (148.88)
Total Trades:30Short Positions (won %):16 (31.25%)Long Positions (won %):14 (14.29%)
Profit Trades (% of total):7 (23.33%)Loss trades (% of total):23 (76.67%)





SUMMARY
This week I was trading well ( for me anyway) up until Thursday and Friday when I fell into a spate of over-trading.
The positives are 1. I am spotting all the best trades and am taking almost all of them. 2. that I maintained good money management. I've had 22 losing trades but have limited my drawdown to only 6.7%, despite risking 1% per trade.
The negative of course was the over trading which also a had a hugely negative effect on my ability to hold my winners because I kept "getting reversal signals". However I think/hope I have identified the issues as...
1. Trading before the open ( in low volume chop)
2. Not having any candle reference,  I've been inadvertently entering on doji and trailing my stops on the wrong bars because of my use of bar charts not candles. Which has meant quite few entries and exits could have been better or were just plain wrong.
3. Lazy Prep.  Using a whole number as an S/R level despite price not having confirmed it. Also not updating an S/R level after it has been tested.  This resulted in me taking trades off S/R levels that didn't exist or that were past.

SUMMARY OF TRADES/TRADING (so many trades going to do this by day instead this week)
Monday: R+0.1. 4 Trades, all good entries. Some early exits. Missed a corker due to focus on SL/DL over S&R.
Tuesday: R-1.8.  3 Trades, all good entries.  missed a great trade because quit after 3 losses,  but these 3 trades did take place in the pre-session which I am now avoiding.  (might need to change quit point to a % rather than a number of trades?)
Wednesday: R+2: 4 Trades,  all good entries, -some early exits.
Thursday: R-3.6.  11Trades! over trading due to taking 5 trades before the open! early exits (7) Trailing SL too soon (on every bar instead of with trend bars only). not using current/updating S/R levels.
Friday: R-3.6 8 Trades!  over trading again due to... early exits (tracking doji) and poor prep

POSITIVES
1. I am either trading or at least spotting in realtime all the best trades.
2. My money management is remaining in place.

NEGATIVES
1. Trading before the open
2. Not having any candle reference,  I've been entering on and tracking doji as TSLs
3. Lazy Prep.  Using a whole number as an S/R level despite price not having confirmed it.

FIXES
1.  Don't commence trading until 0800GMT
2. Have a small candle window of the chart open at all times  so you're more aware of context. Or simply revert to candles.
3. Just got to keep working on Prep.  I now know to update an S/R level everytime it's tested and that even whole numbers need to prove themselves. For starters I can stop labeling whole numbers and I can stick to the horizontal lines and update them every time they tested.

ADDITIONS ( a few key lines that have popped into my head while trading this week)

"I'm trying to enter the day with no bias and just trade/flow with what the market gives/does, as I'm coming to the realization that even when trend trading there are times when I will be fighting the market (at reversals)".

"I do not need to know the specifics of what is going to happen each day. I just need to know that the market will create something everyday, and all I have to do is flow with it." 

"simplicity, prep and context beat convoluted, fancy and intricate"
SWINGS: NA


Friday, 17 January 2014

READ and Thoughts on Desire

I always thought that money was a by-product of success, which I think is accurate but I've come to the realization that success is also a by-product.  In trading anyway IMHO it is a by-product of ones ability to flow with the market. I've been thinking a lot about this over the week and came to the conclusion that...

I do not know the specifics of what is going to happen each day. I just need to know that the market will create something everyday, and all I have to do is flow with it. Flow must be my primary objective and precede all personal goals. I can inform the market of what my desires are but it will make no difference. I must realize that my goals will all be achieved in good time as a by-product of my ability to flow with price.
Anyway here's the read, both sessions ended up pretty choppy.

Don't Use Doji As Triggers, Make Even Whole Numbers Prove Themselves

PL:  R-3.61    £-69.19

Summary: Today's action just didn't go anywhere. While now obvious that it was in a range, during my session one could easily argue 2 and 8 were potential continuations and 7 a potential "W" (I'm trying to stay away from labelling price action but this was fairly clear). The good news is I got all the best trades (1,2,7,8), the bad news is I exited them early because I got a counter signals.
 As I was trading this session I kept asking myself: "How can I be trading a 5 min chart for 90 mins and be getting 8 trades (12 yesterday) while JMF3 trades a 1 min chart for 90 mins and gets no more than 8?!"
These counter signals are creating the over-trading, answer my question and are what I need to eliminate.
There were two issues today:
1. not using candles (3+4). Despite preferring the look of bars the long at 3 could and should have been avoided because the trigger was a doji (Al Brooks) and certainly shouldn't have been used as a TSL point either. But I missed it because bars are not as clearly defined as a candle... If I hadn't entered 3 I wouldn't have had to SAR on 4. Might introduce a small Candle window to my screen so I have a clearer view of what's going on.
2. using 1.36 as a S/R level (5&6)... For no other reason than it was a whole number. Price had confirmed areas near it but it was not a confirmed area of S/R.... but I insisted on using it as one. 
Might have scraped a BE without these errors, or at least a smaller loss!
So main issue was really Prep... Failure to prep doji and using a lazy S/R level (1.36).



LHs, LLs = down trend got to wait for prior PB to be tested before REV.
1. Buy off test 2nd test of prior low, draw new S line. Prep good, Patience good,  Discipline good (though did want to scalp out some profit) R+0.4 GOOD TRADE
2. Sell on test of RLH, draw new R line. R-0.5 GOOD TRADE, BAD EXIT (doji TSL)
3. SAR Long on imd  REV (2 likely a shake out), draw new S line R-0.8 Shouldn't have exited 2 (doji TSL) Poor Prep!
4. SAR Short on imd REV (3 likely a shake out),  draw new R line. R+0.1 Shouldn't have exited 2 (doji TSL) Poor Prep!
5. Long on of 1.36 test (should have been 1 lows) and REV,  draw new S line. R-0.8 Shouldn't have used 1.36 as a S/R line , it hadn't been confirmed as one! Poor Prep
6. SAR Short on imd REV (5 likely a shake out),  draw new R line. R-0.6  Shouldn't have used 1.36 as a S/R line , it hadn't been confirmed as one! Poor Prep
7. Long on test of most recent S line (5). draw new S line. R-0.3
8. Short on test of (4) RLH ,  draw new R Line. R-0.9 Prep Good , Patience Good,  Discipline Good, hard luck getting stopped.

Thursday, 16 January 2014

READ and S&R Thoughts


Trying to heed to words of several people /blogs I read. To Paraphase "simplicity, prep and context beat convoluted, fancy and intricate"  I think I lost sight of that this morning  particularly updating my prep (S/R levels).
To surmise....

  • I need to mark all RLHs
  • I need to mark all PBLs
  • When price reaches an S/R line.  I can expect 1. a bounce off it. 2. a pause and continuation (likely a SAR). 3. a straight BO/BD (that at some point price will likely come back to test/PC). 4. that I will have to update the S/R level after the test.
  • In an uptrend (HHs/HLs)price will be making the new highs, and these will have to be tested before it reverses.  The with trend PBs will occur at previously passed S/R levels.
  • In an downtrend (LLs/LHs) price will be making the new lows, and these will have to be tested before it reverses.  The with trend RLs will occur at previously passed S/R levels.
  • All I have to do is wait patiently for the levels to be tested before taking a trade. 
  • Then be disciplined enough to take every trade that is triggered AND update the S/R level!



LLsLHs= down trend =  only reverse on test of most recent low
a. Long off touch of prior low and draw new lows
b. Short off touch of PC and draw new highs
c. Long off deep test of prior low and 1.36,  and draw new lows
d. short off test of prior RLH
e. Long on SAR of (d),  draw PBLs
f. HH/HL =  uptrend =  only reverse on test of most recent high
g. Short off test of most recent high (d) draw new highs