2014 End of Year: R-43.8

INTRO: Basically I want to figure out what I was doing in my bad months and stop doing that, and what I was doing in my flat months and keep doing that. You can find a rather colourful breakdown of each month at the bottom of this post if you want a headache.

BAD MONTHS: 

Number of months major issues were affecting my trading

• Over trading: 1
• Buying at supply, selling at demand: 3
• Under-trading (avoiding /missing): 7
• Method (changing difficulty executing): 4
• Personal Issues (health, external): 2 

OK MONTHS:

• Good days were when I was Having Fun/ Playing to win so happy to adapt to PA....
• A lot more trades placed by what looks like labeling highs and lows (being aware of pivot highs and lows), which seemed to keep me in the zone. Trading W bottoms and M tops.
• nice post on persistence.
• Focus on B/B Sweet Spots (focus on supply and demand levels) which I like asking the question " if I were Long/short where would my SL/ PT" be and using those tipping points as entries.
• Trading Al Brooks 20EMA PBs and RLs and SARing if they failed.

OBSERVATIONS:

• trading off the 20EMA really does require a strong trend.
• Could have avoided the low prob with trend trade and SAR'd instead if likely to fail (simply should be looking to short at supply and buy at demand instead of pigheadedly sticking to 20EMA)
• could really start to use alerts!

SUMMARY:

Well this year was diabolically bad. I didn't have one winning month in fact I only managed one winning week. What next? Well there are a myriad of things mentioned above but the points that stand out the most to me are  "trading off the 20EMA really does require a strong trend."I should be looking to short at supply and buy at demand instead of pigheadedly sticking to 20EMA setups at/near S&D" and "I could really start to use alerts!"........"Having Fun/ Playing to win", "Being aware of pivot highs and lows"and "being aware of S&D" had a better impact on my trading.

Is Al brooks wrong, are setups off the 20EMA shit?  Yes and no it depends on whether they coincide with supply or demand. In his defense he has always said setups off the 20EMA require a strong trend and I have observed that myself this year.  

Is Sam Seiden right? are setups off supply and demand right? Ultimately I don't know but surely supply and demand have far more to do with why markets move than the placement of the 20EMA on my chart. There are 2 Al Brooks quote I have written down:

1. "when you're about to take any trade, always ask yourself if the set-up is one of the best of the day. is this the one that institutions have been waiting for all day? if the answer is no and you are not a consistently profitable trader, then you should not take the trade either. if you have 2 consecutive losers within 15 mins or so, ask yourself if those were trades that the institutions have been waiting hours to take. if the answer is no , you are over-trading, and you need to become more patient." 

2. "if a trader has the patience to wait possibly hours for a best trade to develop (and he restricted himself to only the trades in this chapter) he would be a very successful trader...the best trades require a lot of patience, patience to occur and patience to work out...learning to restrict yourself to only the very best trades is perhaps the most difficult part of trading. If you are not making money it is something that you must seriously consider...(The single most important trade to avoid until you are skilled is trading within BW (in a volatile range) and a TTR (tight trading range))...many (with trend) setups will look terrible , but you have to trust your read and place your orders or else you will be trapped out of great trades, like so many weak hands...( in a strong trend you do not need setups you can enter at anytime, they merely allow tighter stops)... Once profitable increase size not setups"

I love these quotes but in all honesty I think this applies far more to a S&R/S&D method than that one of waiting for trending market (if you even get one) then waiting pullbacks to the 20EMA. Institutions don't chase price up or down, yes they may add to a ppositionon a rally or pullback but surely they are concentrating on filling there orders at absolute lows or highs.

What next?  I'm changing my method to one based on Supply and Demand.... I can't continue trading something I don't believe in (20EMA). 

If I base my entries off any pivot highs or lows confirmed by a LSH/HSL and IB's that are confirmed as S/D by a candle pattern, then I will be be basing my strategy entirely around S&D. This will enable me to trade even if there is no trend and easily implement alerts as I will be trading off static levels not a moving average which will reduce workload. On top of that this method will tie in with the behavior of my more positive months: being aware of pivot highs and lows, focusing on supply and demand and  having fun/trading to win. Selling high and buying low is a competitive act of trying to get the best price and that is a game/fun in itself... more on a method in the coming days...

As I have written this I have been monitoring the EU M5 chart all day. One of those classic days with clear highs and lows but almost no trend and spotted 4 trades I liked . It would have been entirely useless implementing a 20EMA strategy today the only thing that worked was supply and demand levels!

______________________________________________________________________________________________

BAD MONTHS
January: Over-trading caused by a very sensitive/short term S&R method and taking almost every candle signal.

February: OFF
April: Another month of pretty much AL Brooks Method but looks like I was often not aware of supply and demand areas.  I was often buying at supply and selling at demand. Another thing I'd like to note is that trading off the 20EMA really does require a strong trend. or at the very least orderly price action.
May:Still trading Al brooks but with reverted to 8/20 which is a bit slow. Also watching not trading, getting v tentative, also over worried about trading through yesterdays midpoint.  Not always aware of supply and demand, not a bad post I wrote on it here. Nice stretch of ISL if a obv level might be tested. Couple of good posts I wrote about my apprehensions 1.  S&R double edge sword (also includes a change in plan to ensure I'm trading off S/R+20ema) 2. recent apprehension
June: Again missing lots of trades, serious jitters also missing lots by being away from the charts...could really start to use alerts!
July: Just missing and avoiding LOADS OF TRADES! Quite liked that I wrote "I've got to remember that Uptrends test lows and Downtrends test highs"
August: Missing/Avoiding lots of trades. Started to relax mid month after this post but still missed alot. Good days were when I was Having Fun so happy to adapt to PA.... Bad days I was Not having much fun and feeling stiff so found it hard to react to PA and therefore missing and or adapting trades.
September: Actually a bad month!.Messing with method, a lot of missed/avoided trades.Interesting posts on 1.trading to win 2. tentative ...
November: Over worked, trading too many pairs and complex method. Trading 3 pairs using highs and lows as trend giver, trading off 20EMA and S&R levels very time consuming and tiring, meant I often found myself too warn out and frazzled when the trade setup. Focus on B/B Sweet Spots which I like asking the question " if I were Long/short where would my SL/ PT" be and using those tipping points as entries.

GOOD MONTHS
March: Trading Al Brooks 20EMA PBs and RLs and SARing if they failed. Aware of S&R levels (demand, supply, and 00s/50s) Could have been better had I not bought into supply and sold into demand, I was sometimes taking mechnical entries to literal. Could have instead avoided the low prob with trend trade and SAR'd instead if it was likely to fail.
October: A lot more trades placed by what looks like labeling highs and lows, which seemed to keep me in the zone. Trading W bottoms and M tops. nice post on persistence.
December: Started month trading 3 pairs (EU/EJ/UJ) using highs and lows for direction then reverted to Al Brooks / S&R trading 20EMA on EU only. Missed alot of trades due to external issues.

NOTES from Year

AL BROOKS"if a trader has the patience to wait possibly hours for a best trade to develop and he restricted himself to only the trades in this chapter , he would be a very successful trader...the best trades req alot of patience, patience to occur and patience to work out...learning to restrict yourself to only the very best trades is perhaps the most difficult part of trading. If you are not making money it is something that you must seriously consider...The single most important trade to avoid until you are skilled is trading within BW (in a volatile range) and a TTR (tight trading range)...many WT setups will look terrible , but you have to trust your read and place your orders or else you will be trapped out of great trades, like so many weak hands... in a strong trend you do not need setups you can enter at anytime, they merely allow tighter stops... Once profitable increase size not setups"
ME: ask " if I were Long/short where would my SL/ PT be" then use those tipping points as entries. if you don't get a good entry where they would be taking profit use the level they would have placed their TSLs instead as there will be an influx of orders hitting the market there too.

December 2014 Summary: R-6.5

Week 1: 1st-5th December 2014 : R-4.8. Started with no real method and because I insisted on continuing like this I did a number on my P/L over Monday and Tuesday I couldn't recover from. (Well I could have had I been a bit more confident on Tues PM,  not messed Thurs up.

Week 2: 8-12th December 2014: R-0.5. One of those weeks where life got in the way. Problems outside of trading happened, namely rented flat and health.  Got a little cautious at the end of the week but I'm not going to take this to heart. I have been under the weather and have had quite a bit of pressure from the flat weighing in and effecting my judgement and am certain it was just these two factors throwing me off.

Week 3: 15 -19th December 2014 R-1.2. Bitty week got Xmas'ed. Started well but made classic error of buying at supply. 

Summary: Don't really know what to say here, guess i just start from the beginning. Started month trading 3 pairs (EU/EJ/UJ) using highs and lows for direction, this was very time consuming and tiring (large loss in first week), Changed method middle of first week to something simpler (as advised by John) to one pair (EU) using more or less price action to 20EMA as direction giver and trading off S/R levels with 20EMA as a barometer for valid pullbacks and rallies. However the weeks that I was trading like this were not complete as I had problems at a property I rent out,  was ill and got Xmas'd last week.  So an incomplete month it terms of weeks and days and don't feel I can glean much from the data although I have managed to "dot the i's and cross the t's" with this new method.  Going forward all I keep thinking about is the importance of sticking to one method period because if I don't I am never going to be able to learn and get probabilities on my side.

15 -19 December 2014 R-1.2

Monday: R-1.2: Bought at Supply, then Discretionary Exit created Over Trading!

Tuesday: OFF

Wednesday: Observation not to short a R level price has closed beyond. OR a Buy a support level price has closed below.

Thursday: OFF

Friday: OFF

Notes: Bitty week got Xmas'ed

Summary:  Same as last week's. 

An Observation Regarding S/R levels

If an S/R level is broken it is probably best to level it as in "A".

While if it stays intact it is more likely to work "B" and "C".

R-1.2: Bought at Supply, then Discretionary Exit created Over Trading!

Started okay then went to shit...

• Don't buy at supply / sell at demand ever!
• Don't discretionary exit,  let trade plan play out!

EU Trades:

8 - 12th December 2014: R-0.5

Monday: R+0.1: In and Out Day (physically). Some problems at rented property which actually took all week to sort out. One good observation: Check M30 chart for any obvious setup before entering on the M5. Don't want to be buying at supply / selling at demand.
Tuesday R-0.5: Missed Getting in after BO of R. Nothing much of note, a good read with the exception of missing a good with trend trade that had broken out of R.  The reason I found this confusing was that I would have got in on the breakout of R on a PB however in this case the PB was very subtle, more of a sideways consolidation which I took as another test of R rather than a consolidation above it. C'est la vie but something Bob Volman has mentioned in the past and I need to be aware of "Pre-Breakout Tension". It's basically an ascending triangle around R and a descending triangle around S and a good sign that that level is going to break.
Wednesday: OFF. Doctor in morning, antibiotics.

Thursday:R-0.0: Observation No Trades. Just a a little note that occasionally I can take trades off S/R and something other than the 20EMA, ie Y HI/LO or .00 / .50.
Friday: OFF

Notes: One of those weeks where life got in the way. Problems outside of trading happened, namely rented flat and health.  Got a little cautious at the end of the week but I'm not going to take this to heart. I have been under the weather and have had quite a bit of pressure from the flat weighing in and effecting my judgement and am certain it was just these two factors throwing me off.

Summary:  similar to last weeks...Just adding in  the things I took from this week.

• Trade with Price to 20EMA, 
• Price blw 20ema = Short,  price abv 20ema = Long.  
• Wait for PBs/RLs to 20EMA which coincided with S/R (can break 20, mustn't break S/R)
• Occasionally I can take trades off S/R and something other than the 20EMA, ie Y HI/LO or .00 / .50.
• Used HSL/LSH as entry,  SL low/high trigger,  PT next S/R level (this needs to be stretched in all likihood). Also need to start trail the stop:  track higher lows if long and lower highs if short. 
• Check M30 chart for any obvious setup before entering on the M5. Don't want to be buying at long term supply / selling at long term demand.
• Avoid...Shorts triggering at S level/Longs triggering at R levels unless there is good  "Pre-Breakout Tension"(ascending triangle around R/descending triangle around S)
  
• Avoid SSs(or HMs) that O/C are outside prior bars range
• condense PA in AM if MT4 has over expanded it
• Must listen to PA not Emotion

Don't trade these days...

• BOE IR /policy and ECB IR/policy: fall on first Thursday of month = off
• US NFPS: fall first Friday of month = off
• FED IR / policy: 3rd Wednesday of month = off
• BOJ IR/policy: happen over night GMT = not an issue

R-0.0: Observation No Trades

Missed these on Thursday...

A:  was interesting as it was not my setup (S/R+20ema) but it was very similar as it occurred at S/R +.50.

B: see the chart...

R-0.5 Missed Getting in after BO of R.

FYI the number at the start of the post title is the amount my account is up or down for the day. Guess it could be written as a percent. I risk 1% on all trades,  today I lost 0.5% of risk, so my account is down 0.5%. 

• Happy with trades 1&2 wouldn't have traded them any differently. 
• Glad I got out of 3 early on realisation that I was buying at R,  would've been nice to just not trading it. 
• Shame I missed B, not very upset but I guess the longer term R was broken and that was my entry.

EU Trades

R+0.1: In and Out Day (physically)

Very long weekend meant I slept in a little this AM and missed a couple of trades.  Missed another later due to having to go out.  However the 3 I did take I'm happy with.

• Got the size a little low on my first trade meaning not the best PL return.
• 2nd trade long I was dubious of, as I had just seen a short setup on M30. This is something I should add to checklist.
• 3rd trade a SAR of "2"  was absolutely correct. I'm still a little bemused by selling at demand, however I guess it had broken down.

EU Trades: 

M30 trade

November 2014 Summary: A Lot of Trading To Iron Out Method: R-11

Week 1: 3rd - 7th November 2014: R-3.9 (success went to head). Summary: Basic, basic, basic, stuff lacking! Trend! TSL! Realistic PTs! Last week's success went to head, was focusing on LT goals in session rather than what needed to be done, as can be seen above (more here). Even the journal suffered ( was misidentifying faults). May sound down on myself  but I'm not, I just really needed to hammer home to myself here that I can't let the in session focus slip even for a minute... Not going to dwell but will remind myself occasionally this WE of what needs to be done then focus on relaxing and being fresh for Monday.

Week 2: 10-14th November 2014: R-1.1 (Some Confusion, Some Anticipation and Trading Overtired). Summary: The Plan is profitable, I just failed to follow it! I've got to stop trading Friday morning's as I am over tired and struggle to follow the plan. Maybe when I am successfully following the plan for the entire week I can work it back in. Getting an extra reason to get long or short helps trade IE Support/Resistance + (20ema / .00 / .50 / Y Hi / Y Lo)
Week 3: 17th-21st November 2014 : R-1.1 (Not Following the Plan Or Gaining Experience) Summary: The fact is I have been avoiding loads of trades and I need to trade more, to enable me to learn and earn more....
Week 4: 24-28th November 2014: R-3.9 (Messing with Method). Summary: Teething problems (messing with method!) at start of week, settled down on Thursday; Took John's comment on board dropping my work load. waited till actually wanted to trade (US session). Used 20EMA as barometer plus S&R to take trades (meant more of a waiting than "working" game), preprogrammed orders for all trades, walked away for a good deal of the time (updated stop levels occasionally), felt good.

UPDATE:  With a little Hindsight I think its important to add that this was really the month where I started to understand 2 things. 
 Firstly the importance of buying at demand (low) and selling at supply (low). And secondly that my method doesn't have to be complicated.  at the start of the month I was naffing around on three pairs labeling every high and low,  updating S& levels all the time... just running around like a headless chicken.
 Later in the month I knocked my work down to one pair (EURUSD) I stopped trading Friday mornings! More or less stopped updating highs and lows (unless it helped in someway) and based my method around waiting, doing very little before a setup, so I was fresh for it (using 20EMA as a barometer with S&R) instead of being absolutely spent and overwhelmed by the time it came.

1st-5th December 2014 : R-4.8

Monday:R-2.3: Neglected to Label Highs, Lows and S&R.  Resulted in shorting at demand. Really inbetween methods and doing neither of them correctly.  also trading EJ!

Tuesday: R-2.5: Mess on the EJ, Much Better on EU, Decided On Method.  More in post, in short; trading with price to 20EMA on pullbacks to demand and 20EMA, or rallies to supply and 20EMA. Losses came from EJ trading with no method.

Wednesday:R+0.9: Short off R+20EMA. An example of correctly trading tuesday's method.

Thursday: R-0.8: Selling at Demand and Failing to SAR. An example of trading tuesday's method incorrectly and incompletely,  I've got to SAR on failure to get back to BE.

Friday: OFF

Notes:  Started with no real method and because I insisted on continuing like this I did a number on my P/L over monday and Tueday I couldn't recover from. (Well I could have had I been a bit more confident on Tues PM,  not messed Thurs up.

Summary: 

• Trade with Price to 20EMA, 
• Price blw 20ema = short,  price abv 20ema = Long.  
• Wait for PBs/RLs to 20EMA which coincided with S/R (can break 20, mustn't break S/R)
• Used HSL/LSH as entry,  SL low/high trigger,  PT next S/R level (this needs to be stretched in all likihood). Also need to start trail the stop:  track higher lows if long and lower highs if short. 
• Avoid...Shorts triggering at S level (and Longs triggering at R levels)
  Avoid SSs(or HMs) that O/C are outside prior bars range
• condense PA in AM if MT4 has over expanded it
• Must listen to PA not Emotion

Don't trade these days...

• BOE IR /policy and ECB IR/policy: fall on first Thursday of month = off
• US NFPS: fall first Friday of month = off
• FED IR / policy: 3rd Wednesday of month = off
• BOJ IR/policy: happen over night GMT = not an issue

R-0.8: Selling at Demand and Failing to SAR

Quite a good read today despite being in the red.  Fixed mistake early (shorting at demand). Also was figuring what I want to do around major data. Traded it initially like Brooks would (with disregard to it) but it is very choppy so think I will most likely avoid it in the future.  To be clear the only data I will avoid (regard as major) and as such are days off are...

• BOE IR /policy and ECB IR/policy: fall on first Thursday of month = off
• US NFPS: fall first Friday of month = off
• FED IR / policy: 3rd Wednesday of month = off
• BOJ IR/policy: happen over night GMT = not an issue

Morning Price Action Note:  condensing PA at the start of the day when MT4 automatically expands it during low volatility actually makes it easier to read. Moves can often look huge and "unlikely" when expanded, where as condensed they can be seen and interpreted with greater clarity.

                                        over-expanded                                        condensed

EU Trades: Actually happy with all of this (inc the mistake at 1) however wish I'd SAR'd 2

R+0.9: Short off R+20EMA

Started twitchy then got my rhythm. particularly pleased I avoided C&D.
Avoid...
C. Shorts triggering at S level (and Longs triggering at R levels)
D. SSs(or HMs) that O/C are outside prior bars range

Missed two trades.
1. Must listen to PA not Emotion
2.  Out (so not an issue)

EU Trade: 

R-2.5: Mess on the EJ, Much Better on EU

Okay I'm over trading the EJ and UJ now!
TBH I'm still naffing around with my method. Last week Thursday went well on the EU and did something similar today....

EU method:

• Trading with Price to 20EMA, 
• Price blw 20ema = short,  price abv 20ema = Long.  
• Waited for PBs/RLs to 20EMA which coincided with S/R
• Used HSL/LSH as entry,  SL low/high trigger,  PT next S/R level (this needs to be stretched in all likihood). Also need to start trail the stop:  track higher lows if long and lower highs if short. 
• one observation on EJ trade 5 might be useful: if price has O/C ( in this case) under a S level, it might be weakened and worth a pass.

EU Trades:  need to let profits run!

EJ Trades:  Ghastly mess. However one observation on trade 5 might be useful: if price has O/C ( in this case) under a S level, it might be weakened and worth a pass.

R-2.3: Neglected to Label Highs and Lows

Not bad to begin with but trading with disregard to highs and lows is not something I can get away with... resulted in missing a PT and just a shockingly poor short at support. C'est la vie. back on it tomorrow... Also fucking swapped to EJ instead of sticking on EU as preferred the chart action.

 EJ trades: