Thursday 31 October 2013

311013 when legs are difficult to spot, use trending highs and lows as guide

So more practice this morning  followed by some reading of Al Brooks.  I was questioning whether I should continue to blog this bit of my trading, as my entries have been pretty monotonous recently but I realized that first and foremost this is my trade journal (not a blog) and keeping a record of my progress is most important.

Today 2 clear DWTL and an UWTC could be drawn but once the LON session started it was particularly hard to spot the legs of the UWTC. This made me realise how important it is to keep my eyes on the big picture. Despite the Legs being difficult to see, what was clear is that price was clearly making higher lows so a bull was in place. IDing all the H/L 1,2,3,4 helps with this as not only are you spotting the legs you are focusing on the turns (his/los)

1 + 3. were a "W" bottom. Both bars were out of my session (i wasn't even awake), so although trades took place between them I wouldn't have taken any.

The move coming down to bar 2, although difficult to see was a 2 legged move, 2 bear trend bars separated by a bull doji.

The following bars could all be renamed slightly differently but they are still H/L setups regardless of their number. The most important thing here is that after the "W" and DWTL break,  price is making higher lows  (3,5 and 7) so the market is in a bull trend..
3. was an H1 and marked the 1st leg down
4. was an L2 but after a"W" and DWTL break and 21EMA break so the bias was on getting long.
5. was a rather imperfect H2 as the signal bar was not the low but marked the end of the 2nd leg down
6. was an L1 but again bias is long so not traded.
7. is a much better H2 and should have been traded. (aprrox 1: 1.5 TSL)
8. is an L2 and marks the 3rd leg up (1st 3-4, 2nd 5-6, 3rd 7-8)  but is the first test high of the TC and is a counter trend trade so should be avoided.
9. is and H3 but is rather OE so again should be avoided
10. is an L3 that forms a "M" at prior R, is a second test of the  top of the TC, and meets a LT DWTL making it an ideal short (approx 1: 7 TSL)



Wednesday 30 October 2013

301013 more practice and reading

This morning started choppy again.  I found it relatively easy to spot the TL and TC although  because of the chop I found identifying the legs of the moves far harder. Although there was a TC OE and subsequent test of of it that created a "M" top, this was not as definitive a REV as a TL break (a breakdown of the TC low)  that I felt I needed to commence trading in this circumstance.  So my plan was to wait for an actual BD of the TL (TC low) and then short the RL or wait for a continuation,  whichever confirmed  first.

What happened was after the "M" top was there were 3 (very) messy legs down, seeing that it this is a reversal signal and that it coincided with the UWTL and prior S.  getting long on the H2 would be the best entry.

Bar 1  was an entry H2 at UWTL  (approx 1:1)
Bar 2 BO of R and PB
Bar 3 was an L1 and marked the first leg up (expecting at least 2 legs)
Bar 4 was an H3 (PB entry) Long (approx 1:3)
Bar 5 was an L3 and marked 3 legs up so would have shorted a scalp back towards 21EMA ( approx 1:1)


Tuesday 29 October 2013

291013 LON AM practice (difficult range)

This morning's action was far harder for me to read  as it was quite choppy unlike recent days which have had a relatively good trend. I got a little confused/concerned as to which TLs were most important. There was a clear longer term UWTL and a clear shorter term DWTL too. However from watching the day develop I think price action itself is most important.  For example there was a "M" formation at prior R which clearly had more power that the LT UWTL and eventually overpowered it. I am starting the reversals chapter in Brooks book so hope this will shed some light on it.

Summary: Having read some pages on Reversals today this reading was far from perfect, but I was at least wondering down the right path.

1. is an H1 is low probability so is untrade-able
2. is an  L1 and marks the end of the 1st leg
3. H2 (MS2) but there's no meaningful TL break so is untrade-able
4. is an L2 and marks the end of the 2nd leg up
5. is an H3 (MS2) and can be traded after a clear TL break between H2 and H3
6. touches prior R
7. is an inside reversal bar and marks the end of the 3rd leg,  which after such a strong development can now clearly be seen as 2 legs up. So 5 is renamed an (H2).
8. is an L3 scalp into TL
9. is an L4 but with no meaningful TL is untradeable and proably should not be seen as an L4
10. is an H3 after a TL so is tradeable.
11. (L1) is an L4 , but again with no meaningful TL break is untradeable
6-11 now complete a "M" =  bias down. And Bar 10 now clearly ends the 1st leg down.  So 11. is now renamed an L1.
12. is an H1/MS2 but with thebias down is untrade-able. it also ends the 2nd leg down.
13. is an  L2 that is trade-able becasue a meaningful TL has broken. as Price is clearly in a LT range PT at next level of S =  RRR 1 : 1.1 TSL
14.  is an H2 scalp near D1 S back into 21EMA / DWTL = RRR1:0.5.  14 also ends the 3rd leg down but now on viewing the size of leg 3 compared to legs 1 &2 we can see that elgs 1&2 are really on choppy leg.  so really 14 ends the 2nd leg down
15. is an L3 and because there was a meaningful TL break between L1 and L2 it was tradeable. with a TSL RRR 1: 3



Monday 28 October 2013

2801013 more practice LON AM

Bar 1 - 2 =  "W" =  bias long
Bar 3 an H1 but "W" not confirmed so invalid.
Bar 4 is an L1 but after a "W" is ignored
Bar 5 is a H2 and price has broken above a meaningful DWTL =  long (approx 1:2)
Bar 6 is an L1 CTT after 2 legs up =  no trade
Bar 7 is an H1 so is not traded due to low probability
Bar 8 is an L2 but after so little test of prior high is not valid.
Bar 9 is an H2 but price is now clearly in barbwire so is not tradeable
Bar 10 is a L3 that confirms a "M" so is valid = short (approx 1:1)
Bars 6 -10 = "M" =  bias Short
Bar 11 is a H1 but is invalid after an "M"
Bar 12 is a L2 that broke an UWTL =  Short (approx 1:-0.5)



Friday 25 October 2013

251013 Reading LON AM session practice


  • Bars 1 &2 mark a clear "M" at D1 R  plus a break of Maj UWTL =  bias short
  • Bar 3 is an H1 and marks the 1st leg down.
  • Bar 4 is an L1, but it is better to wait for a higher probability L2
  • Bar 5 is an H2 trapping more bulls
  • Bar 6 is an L2 after a TL break  =  valid. Trade into low of TC approx 1: 1.2 RRR
  • Bar 7 is an H1 at the bottom of the 2nd leg down, better to wait for a H2
  • Bar 8 is an L1 trapping Bears at the bottom of the TC
  • Bar 9 is and H2 after a meaningful TL break so is trade-able back to test the prior extreme. approx 1.2RRR or with TSL 1.-0.3
  • Bar 10 was an L2 but there was no meaningful TL break between L1 (8) and L2 (10) so this was a Bear trap.
  • Bar 11 is an H3 but  should be reordered as an H2 and Bar 9 as an H1 as there is now a clear leg up. approx RRR 1 ; 1.5,  with TSL: 1: 1
  • Bar 12 is an L3 but because there was no meaningful TL break between L1 (8) and L2 (10) this could not be traded despite is being a TC overshoot.
  • Bar 13 is an H3 and could be traded. approx RRR 1:2 / TSL 1:0.5
  • Bar 14 is a Bearish RB and the 3rd clear leg/push up which is a topping pattern and at D1 R bias turns to short.
  • Bar 15 is an L1 after 3 pushes up a TC OE and bearish RB, and test of 1.38 =  good short. approx 1: 0.7
  • Bar 16 is an H1, better to wait for a H2 in this situation with all the bearish data.
  • Bar 17 is an L2 that was tradeable because a meaningful TL had beeen broken between L1 (15) and L2 (17). approx 1.0.5
  • Bars 1,2, 14 have now formed a triple top putting a real bearish slant on the day this could even be seen as 2 "M" the first from  bars 1-2 the second from bars 14-18. either way...
  • Bar 20 was a great L2 / 2nd leg after breaking the STTL between L1/1st leg (19) and L2 (20), and forming a mini "M" itself (18-20). a target of 1.38/38.2 seems reasonable with so much bearish pressure. approx RRR1 : 2.5


Summary: again happy with my reading of the action, it's good practice and is increasing my confidence. I am also understanding that there really is a science to reading price action correctly.  And although scalping is often described as an art, perhaps for me it is more accurate to think of it as an artful science (there is a right and wrong way of doing everything but once you learn how to do things correctly you can start being creative). Also noted (can confirm to myself) that in a non trend day set PT's are far more profitable than using a TSL just as Brooks says: scalp in ranges, swing in trends.  Finished a chapter on Ranges and BO/BD,  writing up notes this PM. Family stuff all day and night Sunday means a start on Tuesday next week is more than likely.


Thursday 24 October 2013

241013 Psychology and Brooks practice

So this week I have continued to concentrate on working through the Al Brooks book, I'm about halfway through and have covered Price action,  TL and TC, trends, PB/RL and am now starting on ranges. Last week I was given some advice from a skilled trader who advised starting the Brooks method with the H2 and L2 setups, however although I had a glossary definition of them I didn't feel that confident trading them.  I have now covered them in the book and feel far more comfortable with the concept so thought I'd spend the London AM session trying to spot them as practice before continuing with the book.

Before continuing I would like to first mention a post from the same trader that included an insightful quote that I want to record in my journal.
New favorite quote, courtesy of "I AM RICHARD":

"Rather than work on complicating your chart, work on simplifying your mindset. Lately I win right around 50% of the time, which I used to think was terrible. Now, I understand that it is just the opposite. The ultimate freedom is when you don't have to depend on being right to make money. Think about that until you understand it."
http://scalppipping.blogspot.com/2013/10/october-23.html

I have rules regarding fear that I have bastardized from Curtis Faith's The Way of the Turtle. The reason I mention this is because I think in a small way they are related.  My "rule" ( theory is probably a better name for it) for dealing with fear is...
 "I only feel fear when I focus on the outcome of a trade (what might happen).  Anything can happen so focusing on what might occur is a complete waste of time and energy because I have no control over it. I must switch my bias from one of outcome to execution. If I am focusing entirely on how best to execute the next piece of price action (not necessarily trading it) then the probability of me "trading" it correctly increases dramatically".

Until now I only thought about this when I was experiencing fear however from reading the quote above I realised that this is not only a mindset I should focus on when fearful but one that I should endeavour to enact throughout the each and every trading day. I know the two quotes are not entirely related but I feel I would have a much better chance of achieving the former, particularly "simplifying your mindset"  if I focus solely on how to best execute a situation.

So to continue with the Brooks practice... One of the things that I hadn't understood was that as much as the H/L1,2,3,4  are setups, they are just as much and maybe even more importantly a counting method. The basic idea is that there are at least two legs in each trend (move with trend or counter trend) and in some degrees (although not always perfectly) H/L1,2,3,4 help you identify them.
Another concept which I think I was more familiar with although may not have had it quite so succinctly in my head is that "the market will usually try and do something twice,  if it fails the second time it will usually do the opposite (reverse)".

This morning I had a much easier and enjoyable time of reading price action because I was focusing on the execution rather than the outcome. Instead of looking for trades I was counting legs which was the best thing for me to do and resulted in me instead of jumping into (theoretical) trades waiting for a better/ higher probability setup (2nd entry on the 2nd leg usually).


This morning I started at 0730GMT ( on my charts this is 0930?)
I noticed that price had broken above 1.38 and had not PB , also it was approaching the top of the TC so i had a  bias towards a short scalp.

  • at bar 1 price had formed a L1 but this was a first leg up so was unlikely to be a good short.
  • at bar 2 an L2 triggered and this would have been a great trade, despite there not being TL break between L1 and L2 there was one on confirmation. The IPT target was approx 1.38 but a TSL tracking the the highs of each new low close would have been most profitable (1:6 RRR).
  • bar 3 was an H1 but was weak because there was only one leg down and was still OE from 21EMA and 1.38.
  • bar 4 was an H2 but there was no meaningful TL break between H1 (3) and H2 (4) so was void.
  • bar 5  price closed below the TC low,  my initial thought was to prepare for a RL back into the channel.
  • bar 6 changed the order of the prior H1 and H2, I could now clearly see two distinct down legs the first ending at bar 4 (so now H1) and the second ending at Bar 6 (now H2), however this was not trade-able because no meaningful TL had been broken.
  • bar 7 was an L1 but because this was a first leg the probability was low that it would succeed. 
  • bar 8 was an L2 which could be traded because a ST TL had clearly been broken and it even formed an "M". a PT around 61.8 fib which coincided with S would have yielded 1:1.4RRR or 0.5% if using a TSL.
  • bar 9 marked the end of a clear 3rd leg down and was (i think for that reason an H3?)  a valid scalp back up to the 21EMA / 1.38 / TC.  for a high probability but low return 1: 0.5 RRR

Not that would I would trade it because it was outside of my session but...

  • After 3 legs down and a Maj TL, break 2 up legs are expected. The first can be seen from bar 9 to 10 (an H1).
  • bar 10 is the H1 entry but it is better to wait for a higher probability trade H2 as price has entered barb wire.
  • Bar 11 is a nice H2 which can be traded back into 1.38 for just over 1:2 RRR  or a TSL could be used for to test the prior highs (4) (I believe this is a Brooks method although i need to check?)
Summary:  TBH I'm really happy with today. I'm amazed at how much I have absorbed without realizing it. I have been taking quite a lot of detailed notes while reading but I think it's Brooks style, which is relentlessly repetitive.  But that's great because if you miss the point the first time he repeats it another 5 times.

Friday 18 October 2013

181013 Mustn't forget that price action is most important

Struggled to read this morning's price action despite it being quite obvious.(Banging on about this but)I'm plowing through Al Brooks and I was trying to see everything I've read about, which resulted in me seeing nothing, haha.
Big Spike up this morning made me think the market was trending (which it was) and I had decided to put no more weight on D1 hi's and lo's over other S&R levels, which was an idea but probably not the best one. So a PB to D1 R was likely but in my head I was on about only trend trading as this is what I've been reading about most recently (coincidently this is not what Brooks says, as after a TL break he advocates fading as well as trend, my mistake). So kept picking any opportunity to get in with the trend resulting in lots of (potential) stops being hit. The fact current price action is most important.

The rest of the day I wrote up notes on the last two chapters I've read on TL , TC and trends.

So on second looks the clear trades were...
A. short stretch SS OE back into D1 R / 21EMA level (probably a 1:2 RRR, tracking the hi's of new lows)
B. Buy second entry PB at 21EMA as spike and PB quite dramatic so a 2nd entry had higher probability,( again a 1:2 RRR,  tracking lo's of new highs)
C. short the "M" back into 21EMA / UWTL (again a 1:2 RRR , tracking the highs of new lows)
D. Buy BD of UWTL avoid 1st entry at 21EMA for higher probability 2nd entry.  (probably a 1:2 RRR, tracking the hi's of new lows)


Note: sometimes trend PB don't get that far (ie to S) but a 3 bar drop is a setup that works pretty consistently despite not getting to an S area.

Thursday 17 October 2013

171013 Practising Al Brooks: Lessons so far...

Trades I really did spot as the market was developing using Al Brooks method.
Price looking to Double Top near D1 R waiting for short confirmation...
A. Short "M" near D1 R,  both tops had dark cloud cover,  move sell stop to low of small high after first not being triggered. PT: 21EMA not perfect because 2nd high higher so better fill, which Brooks would be wary of. approx 1% return 1:1
Price PB from high breaks ST up trendline which is a Brooks buy signal, wait for buy confirmation...
B. Buy 21EMA PB (BD of ST UWTL), move buy stop to bull bar hi after bear bar failed to trigger. PT : Brooks says you must hold the swings in the trend direction. Even though not actually in this move I could feel my doubt coming in.  drew TC as Brooks recommends, closed on trade above it. There were in fact 2 TC a small and large one... I doubt I would have held until the test of the larger but there was no sign of momentum slowing so I guess I going to have to learn to hold in a trend if there is no sign of weakness.  Aprox 5% - 13% return 1:5-13


RE yesterday's comment:  Thanks so much for the advice and simplifying it for me, makes a lot of sense. I guess I just have to get my eyes tuned into new things.  Your indicator sounds brilliant, where can I get my hands on it?

Wednesday 16 October 2013

161013 Confusion Continues

It just feel like there's a million ways to skin a cat and all are correct but only a couple are likely to match your personality. There's too many options and I keep swapping between them.  D1 hi and lo,  fibs, pivots, 50sma etc. The only thing I'm certain is that price action is for me and scalping it on the London and US opens are the times I want to trade, which is a positive. But how to divide it up into manageable chunks to trade between (horizontally / S&R) is the chestnut. TBH I mentioned this yesterday, I'm stuck because I'm between methods (reading Brooks) So I'm going to persist with the book (Read chapter on trend lines and trend channels, still to write up notes but very enlightening).

Trades I would have liked to take...
A. Short off stretch into prior high
B. Long off stretch into 21EMA ( think because this was a 1st PB from a higher high I should have avoided this according to Brooks and waited for the second PB D to enter)
C. Short off stretch into prior high
D. Long off stretch into 21EMA
E. Long off Continuation inside bar high at the top of large up bar.
F. Short 2nd small bar at bottom of large down bar because 1st didn't trigger.
G. Short 2nd small bar at bottom of large down bar because 1st didn't trigger.




Tuesday 15 October 2013

151013 Polarity Change

Back to trading today having read the first chapter of Al Brooks Reading Price charts bar by bar.  Really surprised at how dense it is,  I thought a lot of reviewers were over exaggerating but it has taken me 3 days to read 50 pages properly (and I haven't even written my my notes). It has definitely helped but as with all new information I have found it's confused me and my method while I digest it, so no trades this morning or this afternoon. I spotted stuff that meet my criteria but I chickened out. I hindsight it is always easy to spot trades one would have liked to have taken but in this case it wasn't that I didn't see them (as I was just looking for price stretches) it was the fact that there was too much S&R on my chart (admittedly that I put on) that put me off. Had I kept my chart clean like Brooks and traded price action I would have had an easier/less stressful time of it. I don't think it's massively important to place the would be trades in the journal today as they're all pretty obvious.
I think the best thing for me to do today is to write up my notes on what i have learnt, this will hopefully clarify some stuff. This I have done and the fog is starting to clear.

Notes:
One thing I would like to note that I observed today was to do with a when a S/R level has actually swapped roles /  changed polarity.
I noticed that once you get a floater (a bar that completely detaches itself from the level) above or below the level , that area seems to be broken. (It may require 2 floaters, still a work in progress)

Here's some examples:
1. Price tests 252EMA then bar floats above it = 252EMA now support
2. Price tests 252EMA then bar floats below it = 252EMA now resistance
3. Price tests D1 S then bar floats below it = D1 S now Resistance
4. Price tests 1.35 then bar floats below it = 1.35 now Resistance



Wednesday 9 October 2013

091013 indifference & exhaustion

P/L: -1% / £22.42  CAP: £2374.85

Trades:
1. Short off D1 S into S1 (-0.52)
 fault1. hadn't mapped Pivots, this got me fearful and made fault2.  discretionary exit.
2. Long off SS into 21EMA (-0.44).  fault1. SS hadn't touched S/R, so invalid entry.


Trade(s) I should have taken.
A. Short off D1 S into S1 (+3) , Actually got this trade entry screwed the exit due to lack of prep.


Notes:
Price has been ranging within the prior days range for quite a few sessions.  This changed today.  I usually use Fibs to plan my entries.  obviously these are useless once price has broken the range.
Map Fibs for Ranging (within prior days Hi&lo)sessions ATG
Map Pivots for trending (out of prior days hi/lo)sessions ATG

Summary:  Again right idea, terrible execution.  I'm not on form. I'm not  upset because I'm seeing the correct opportunities I just have a general feeling of indifference about trading at the moment and this is because I'm over tired. I'm just going in a cycle of  waking up, don't feel terrible,  but don't feel great,  think I might fuck up if I place a trade,  think this is an excuse not to trade and I'm being a pussy so decide I should trade, have no patience because I'm not in the right head space and lose due to not waiting for the correct entry or exit... When I first started I had a strong trait for avoiding loss. So much so that I would simply not trade to avoid it! I'm so scared that this will creep back in that I trade even when I'm over tired,  which is stupid. I guess I've got to accept that I have moved on from that behaviour and I can trust myself to manage my time and self better. Unless I wake up wanting to trade tomorrow and/or Friday I'm going to take the rest week off. 

Tuesday 8 October 2013

081013 No trades. Analysing: Tick VS Close

Last night as I finished my post and published it I took some time to see what other traders had done for the day. While doing this I spotted that a trader I respect had taken some trades around some levels that I was interested in but could not trade effectively due to my using the close for my entry.  On examining his charts I saw (and know this because he has told me) that he does not wait for the close but merely for price to tick above or below the level he considers to be the turning point. I was very happy to see that I had spotted some of the entries that he had taken and even taken one of them (this was a big moment for me).

Here's a comparison of the 2 methods.

JMF3 (http://scalppipping.blogspot.com/)
 Me

For me trade 1 was a zero sum game because I would have used the close below the doji as my confirmation.  While on trade 2 I would have made a similar return to JMF3 because I would have used the formation of a hammer as an entry.

This got me looking back at my recent efforts to see if I could have been more profitable with a "tick" entry rather than a close entry. The simple answer is YES however it does require a variation on the setups that I am using.

1. The trigger must be the most recent with trend candle or HM/SS. ie...
uptrend = bull candle / SS
downtrend = bear candle / HM
2. The trigger must touch S/R ie...
21/252/fib/WN
3. Confirmation is a tick against the extreme of the trigger ie...
Long =  tick above the highs of the most recent bear candle / HM at support.
Short = tick below the lows of the most recent bull candle /SS at resistance.
4. Initial Stop loss would be at the other extreme of the trigger. ie...
Long  = the lows of the most recent bear candle /HM at support.
Short =  the highs of the most recent bull candle /SS at resistance + spread.
5. Initial Profit Target would be a test (push through) of the next level of S/R. ie...
21/252/fib/WN
6. Risk requires a standardized lot size  because conf can occur so quickly.  ie...
 1% CAP / 6 pips . Or 1%CAP / 5.2 pips AM, and 1% CAP / 6.6 pips PM

The following are the revised trades I would have liked to have taken yesterday. 
1. short off 38.2 into 21EMA
2. long off 21EMA into 38.2
3. short off 38.2 into 21EMA
4. long off 21EMA into 38.2
5. short off 21EMA into 23.6
6.  buy off 23.6 into 21 EMA
7. short off 21EMA into 23.6
8. buy off 23.6 into 21 EMA
9. short off 21EMA into 23.6
10. Buy of D1 S into 21EMA / 23.6





Monday 7 October 2013

071013 Rushing - I mustn't trade when I'm tired!

PL: -2.1 / -£51.08  CAP: £2397.27

Trades:
1. (-0.6) Short Dark cloud cover at 38.2,  exit didn't like price action.
fault1: Dark cloud cover is a weak signal that isn't one of my setups so I shouldn't have traded. ATG (entry)
2. (-0.5) Short SS @ 38.2,  exit discretionary.
Fault1:  should have held it was a valid signal, and followed price action closes. ATG (exit)
3. (-1) Short CBPL at 21EMA,  exit ISL
Fault: should have exited on formation of HM .ATG (exit)




Trades I would have liked to have taken...
A. CBPL, Short at 38.2 +252EMA on CBPL. problem occurred before 0730,  but volume had ticked up so was tradeable.  This is what the 0730 start is for, to ensure there's some action.
B. SS short @ 38.2 (got this one, but managed poorly)
C. Bull EP, Long at 21EMA into 252EMA, missed had quit for the AM.
D. CBPL into 23.6 (got this one but messed up the exit).
E. HM off 23.6 into 38.2 area
F. HM off 23.6 into 38.2 area
G. SS @ 21EMA





Notes:
Fault, I saw trade A but didn't take it because I was trying to obey my rules.  But volume had ticked up prior to it so I could have traded it. Volume is more important than a precise time ATG

The only candles I can trade with no confirmation are Hammers (HM) and Shooting Stars (SS), provided they're at the top or bottom of a move, or on S/R. All other entries must have touched an S/R area and got confirmation. if long CAPH (close above prior high), if short CBPL (close below prior low).

You've got to exit a Short when price CAPH, and a Long when price CBPL. Exits ATG
You've got to track the low of each new high (long), and the high of each new low (short). TSL ATG
You've got to re-realize that there's nothing wrong or scary about taking small losses. Psych ATG
You've got to accept that price action will tell you what to do. Psych ATG

Summary:  In all honesty I didn't feel like trading today, I just didn't have the enthusiasm,  I was up late last night with family stuff  but I felt like I was being a pussy so traded. The positives are the ideas were right ( trading off the stretches,  looking for bounces through and from S&R) but my execution was appalling!
Today's poor result, was a product of my rushing, not having patience, lacking confidence and enthusiasm but these were all a by-product of my exhaustion (I can't trade when I'm tired!).


Thursday 3 October 2013

031013 working the stretch and snap to (and off) S+R

PL: +1% / £25.06   CAP: £2448.35

Just looking to get the potential stretches from S+R and the snap(back)s to them.

Trades: 
1. -0.0 Short CPBL at D1 R (stretch) into 252 area , exit on formation of HM.
fault1 started b4 0730, fault2 hadn't marked 1.36 on chart! ATG
2. -0.1 Buy (cls abv) HM at 1.36, (snap) back to D1 R ,
fault1 screwed the exit got greedy, fault2 probably should have bought the HM formation. ATG
3. +1.2 Short (formation of) SS at D1R(stretch) into 252 area,  exit discretionary 1:1.


Trades I would have liked to have got into...
A.  HM formation, snap back into D1R (got this one , but screwed exit)
B. SS formation, stretch into 252 area (got this one)
C. BO Failure of continuation, snap back into D1R ( missed it but recognized it).


Notes:
Managed to stay out of nasty hi wave candles at end of AM session.  Just adopted an "if I'm not sure, wait, if there's no clear stretch there's no clear edge" strategy. ATG
Applying the principles of The Science of Getting Rich that I have recently finished, making a difference to my out look.
Struggling to find an edge on the H1 TF.  Thinking of applying the same kind of method that I am now using intraday (Stretch and Snap).

Summary: Super happy with today's results and effort. Another step in the right direction.  Off this PM and tmrw due to family commitments. 

Wednesday 2 October 2013

021013 Trade the Stretch and Snapback

PL: +0.4 / £1  CAP: £2423.29

Trades:
1. -0.4: Buy on PB to D1 S using CAPH,  exit: CBPL, poor RRR to 252EMA
2. +1.2: Short on Shooting star at prior resistance,  exit:  discretionary.
3. +0.1: Short on close below D1 S, exit TSL, should have took profit on 4 bar drop.
4. -1.0:  long on BO above 252EMA,  exit ISL, unlucky. on BO place ISL at prior low. ATG
5. 0.0: Short off Fib 23.6 on CBPL,  exit discretionary due to time it was taking.
6. +0.5: Shorted the stretch above D1 R on the close of the shooting star.



The trades I would have liked to have got in on are...


A. Shooting Star short of R (got this one)
B. This kind of "W" OE from D1 S was ripe for a RL back to D1 S / 252 (missed)
C. This HM PB at 252EMA would have been a nice continuation. (kind of got this with trade 4, should have waited for a pause/PB)
D. would have liked to Bought this start of a stretch on all confirmation, close above D1 S, 252 and RL. (missed)
E. Short the stretch into D1 R (got this one)

Notes: 
Volume didn't actually pick up till around 0730GMT which would have been a better time for me to start, also it started to dwindle around 0930GMT which would have been a better place for me to finish the session. This is what I do for the the US session (start half an hour before the open and trade for 2 hours),  makes sense to do the same for London. Times 0730-0930 , 1330-1500 ATG

There's some bend in D1 S&R levels, you can trade through them a bit. They're likely to snap back but you don't have to be obey them too rigidly. These stretches can be capitalized on, you can trade the stretch and the snap back. Look for the Stretch and  Snap ATG

Can enter on PB to 252EMA. can trade PB/RL off 252EMA ATG

2:1 is too big a target, you kept getting some nice 1:1;s then giving most of your gains up.  anything around 1:1 is great. 1:1 is good RRR

Summary:
You've got to expect price to stretch S&R a little. Trade the stretch thru S&R and be prepared to trade the snap backs too.
Trade with the trend (stretch) on PB and RL to 21 /252 using CAPH, CBPL, HM and SS as entries.
Trade counter trend (snapback) on OE PB and RL from S&R again using CAPH, CBPL,  HM and SS as entries.
Really happy with breakeven, a step in the right direction.

Tuesday 1 October 2013

011013 Strategy Ammendment



PL: +0.1 / £3  CAP: £2422.29

Trades:
1. SS short (+0.1). fault should have taken profit at 252EMA.

Notes:
I've been putting this off. I meant to start on this yesterday and didn't and then again first thing this morning and here I am at ten to twelve finally getting into it.
I am simply not getting the results I want from my strategy and efforts which means more action is needed as I am trading my strategy to the letter and it isn't working.
I've been away for a couple of weeks on holiday and feel refreshed and I have been working on some ideas. To be honest some of these ideas are ones that have been imparted by others but they are also observations I have made of the market, my personality and watching of others trade.
I still want to trade the M5 chart, I have had success with it in the past and want to find success again with it in the future.
 I really don't suit over complicated stuff, when I first started I struggled to place trades, so a laborious method is not best suited to me. This has been proven with my stupidly simple Daily strategy which is Buy when price closes above the 21EMA (with a stop at confirmation's low) and the reverse for short trades. Interestingly this works well not only on the EU but also the AU, UC and GU (however the GU would probably need a wider stop considering it's volatility). Coincidentally this something that I have begun (swing trading the majors).
This simple swing method has lead me to want to simplify my day trading method and even create a simple hourly trading strategy to build up the pips. my current thoughts are as follows.

Trade D1: buy on close above 21EMA, sell on close below 21EMA, ISL: confirmation hi/lo + 20 pips.

Trade H1: still working on... but thinking something using the 50SMA or 21EMA as a base (maybe PB/RL to a MA and BO of RL'sand BD of PB, maybe just trading hammers and shooting Stars -and maybe using limit orders)

Trade M5: ...
only trade on EU/UK and US opens (0700-1000 and 1330-1500)
trade just with the 252EMA, 8SMA,  D1 S&R levels and fibs (not a fan of pivots yet)
Buy when price closes above 252,  Sell when price closes below 252 (LT)
Buy when price closes above D1 R (prior RL must be broken),  Sell when price closes below D1 S (prior PB must be broken),  (LT continuation)
Buy on PB to fib / pivot / D1 level using CAPH, Sell on RL to fib/pivot /D1 level using CBPL.  (ST)
Counter trend trade on HM and SS back into an S/R level. (ST)
ISL: conf hi/lo + spread
IPT: 2:1 , S/R level
TSL:  track los of each new high + spread
Exits: close against 8SMA,  CBPL,  CAPH,
DEF: a PB is can be identified as such when price CAPH,  and a RL when price CPBL.
Prep:  keep marking RL and PB hi's and los.

For now I'm going to continue using the close for my entries. But I have been getting a lot of help from scalpingthestretch who has been introducing and teaching me how to trade price levels rather than waiting for the close. I am delaying this slightly because I'm just getting used to looking for different signals and while my eyes tune in I'm going to stick to a method I can perform with ease, also have to admit I love the beauty of trading the close, but I hope the same love will come for trading the level.

Things to do tonight so I'm ready tmrw
1. download some pivots (done)
2. set D1 chart up with 21EMA (done)
3. set M5 chart up with 252EMA,  8SMA, (done)