300813 No trading (as planned) Psychology issues

Trades:
A. LOLPB (+2) exit TPO
B. REV @ 252 (-0.2),  exit 8 SMA
C.  HSL (-0.4),  exit TSL
D.  HSL , don't trade because D1 R just beneath =  poor RRR
E.  HSL (+2),  exit TSL, hope I would have taken this trade as price had broken D1 R and RL so a short made sense.

LT Trade
1. I have a very basic setup on the D1 chart, which is buy when price closes above the 21EMA and sell when it closes below it.  Today price closed below the D1 21EMA so triggered a LT short for me...

Notes:
So today is the fourth day I haven't traded. This was intentional as I struggled adapting to the lower liquidity in August. However it took until late last week  for me to realize this,  so figured I may as well wait for September to start seeing that I only had 4 working days to wait (the UK, we had a bank holiday on Monday).
Despite knowing that I had a week's "holiday" I have  not enjoyed my time at all because I have had no direction. I have withered in my act not to trade. Not having to get up on time, not having to do my prep,  not having to wait for trades, not having to place trades, not having to manage trades have resulted in me having no purpose.  This week I have been a trader who doesn't trade. I have been nothing.
To me this boils down to something I've worked quite hard on in my psychology blog. Everyone needs a purpose. When I am direction-less I have no reason to be, so generally find myself feeling low. Ultimately this week I have denied myself a purpose (albeit for the right reason) and although I have not quite fallen in to the "low" feeling, I have certainly felt antsy, anxious and unhappy.
As I write this one question and one observation spring to mind.
Q1. Did I really need to take a break for the rest of the week?  I had in fact done quite a bit to overcome my problems and reorganize my guide over  the weekend.
A1. YES I did need to take a break. Sure I had done some work on my guide over the weekend but on commencing trading on the Tuesday morning some glaring holes came to light. These "holes" were not actually problems with setups or analysis  but guide order. It simply wasn't clear or concise enough to work and trade from easily. It needed deciphering (this was due to recent updates). So yes it has been frustrating watching the markets move without me and of course my ego has assumed that I would have placed every trade perfectly, but in reality without a clear guide this would have been impossible.
OB: My Direction and Drive are focused solely on trading so clearly when I'm not trading, I'm going to have no direction and fell low. It stands to reason a simple fix for this would be to add to my Direction and Drive an additional purpose (and a reason for it)  unrelated to trading, so when I am not trading I still have purpose and my subconscious will remain happy. (I'll get onto this!)

Summary:  So another day not trading. Again just recording the chart action for my records. Significant work on psychology today, and feeling much better.

290813 No trades - re writing guide

Trades
A. HSL (-0.2) ,  exit 8 SMA
B. HSL (-0.4),  exit 8SMA
C. HSL (+2),  exit TPO
D.  LOLPB (-0.2),  exit 8SMA
E.  HSL (+2), exit TPO

Summary:  again just recording the trades that I hope I would have taken.  All pretty clear and easy spots so don't see why I wouldn't have,  obvious trend down. Bit frustrating leaving 3.2% on the table, but you can't trade without a plan so did the right thing.  

280813 No trading (house keeping)

Trades:
A.  HSL , Hope I wouldn't have traded because 8/21 were super tight and nasty
B. HSL , Hope I wouldn't have traded because 8/21 were super tight and nasty
C. HSL (+2),  Hope I would have traded cos 8/21 were nice and clear on trigger, and despite a XO before confirm.
D.  REV to (thru) 252 (-0.3),  hope I would have traded , Hope I would have exited because another trade triggered
E.  REV at 252 (+2),  Hope I would have traded close below shooting star that hit both 252 and H1 R

Summary:  no trades, day spent doing boring shit (tax return etc) that needed to be done.  Volume is definitely coming back in and strategy is performing better. Not much else to say just wanted to record the chart so I can reference it in the future.

270813 Trades, but didn't take any!

P/L: 0% / £0.00  CAP: £2438.04

Trades:
A.  H1 ranging = can trade thru 252EMA
B.  Interesting REV to Trend but on 252,  feel like there's something in this?
C. REV thru 252 (0)
D. REV thru 252 (+2)
E.  HSL (-0.6)
F.  HSL (+0.4)
G.  REV to 252 (+2)

Summary: Just not with it today, doubting my strategy and setups despite having gone over them this weekend and proving that they work.  This is the remains of last weeks break down,  having realised that it was me who was fucking up I'm doubting whether I can trust myself. Good news is I can recognize this so I am definitely coming out the other side. Of course the day I decide I can't trust myself is the day with the easiest trades in a fortnight arrive! Went over guide tidying it up but need to type it up.  Doubt I'll trade tomorrow been dodging my tax return for a months so going to do that and type up the guide.

Summary of Weeks 5&6 Personal Breakdown

Summary: The guide kept me out of poor trading days in the 5th week but in the 6th week I started to doubt it's guidance due to feelings of frustration and greed. I then decided to overrule it and made discretionary trades which lost. The frustration was caused by lack of setups despite there being large moves.  I have noticed this before in times of low volatility and must admit I found it equally frustrating. I use the close of a session as confirmation and in times of low volatility the confirmation can be so explosive (large) the RRR is completely out of whack when the trade finally confirms. This breakdown was entirely emotionally driven,  starting with recency bias (valuing recent results over past results) which lead to outcome bias (valuing the result more highly than the quality of the decision at the time it was made). The fact is the guide was working but I was adapting badly to a period of low volatility and a ranging market and tried to reinvent the wheel! As a side note I have noticed others struggling to find trades too which only compounds the belief that I should not have been questioning my guide. Ultimately this is the first time my strategy has gone through a slow ranging market and it performed well. The next time this happens I know I can trust it.

Most losing days were caused by
1. Ranging market (everyone is struggling in)
2. personal failure:  not trading,  discretionary trades,  not following guide (resulting in discretionary trade)
2. learning days: following guide but noticing where it needed updates which had not yet been added.

I plan to add the following additions to my guide and tidy it up too!

• add 3 consecutive wins /losses =  quitting point 
• added Data trade back in, only profitable trade 
• count consecutive sessions =  use as exit
• check h1 chart on PB to 252 EMA too 
• don't trade if both the trigger and conf suck (trigger body nearer 21EMA,  conf clearly above 8SMA)
• Trade REV trdes thru (ignore) S&R 
• REV to LT trend might be easier as HOLRL (RL = price closes below low of most recent high) (+2) 
• Don't use 8SMA exit on REV setups

Here is a break down of the last 2 weeks

Green = Positives
Red =  Negatives
Orange =  Updates

WEEK 5  -1.2 (could have been 8.4 with new rules)
12th -1.6 (could have been 3.4) trending
Strategy perfromed well i just wasn't around to trade
add 3 consecutive wins /losses =  quitting point
I didn;t trade AM
13th  +2 ranging
lots of XO/XD but patience allowed one 2% trade
14th -0.4 ranging
choppy day, guide kept me out of. 
scalper struggled too
? don't REV to S (rev from 252) if Price has just BO/BD 252 wait for RL/PB? (personal error!)
15th -0.3 (could have been +1) ranging
 choppy day ,  guide kept me out of most
added Data trade back in, only profitable trade
NB:  scalpers struggling to find trades
16th -0.9 (maybe +1.8) large range 
count consective sessions =  use as exit
check h1 chart on PB to 252 EMA too 
??don't use 8SMA exit on REV to 252 trades until in profit??
discretionary trade

WEEK6 -1.4 (could have been 7.8)
19th -0.6 (could have been +1.4) Range + 1 move
possible HOLRL (high of last RL) as BO trade (+1.4)
don't trade if both the trigger and conf suck (trigger body nearer 21EMA,  conf clearly above 8SMA)
range in morning - big move - range in PM
scalpers struggling or not trading
20th +1.4 (could have been 5.4) trend
can I REV trade thru S&R even if less than 1:1? missed big move (+2)
REV to LT trend might be easier as HOLRL (RL = price closes below low of most recent high) (+2)
21st -2.4 (could have been -1) Range
FOMC
scalpers struggling or not trading
big move down,  range AM, Range PM
faults because I traded 2 strategies that i shouldnt have (personal error!)
?REV thru 252 failed exit at 8 would have been less painful?
22nd -1 (could have been +2) Range
scalper struggling again
shouldn't have traded trend trade thru S/R (personal error!)
REV from 252 (rev to S) could have made +2 if i had ignored S&R RRR factors

220813 need to stop and look into the last couple of weeks

P/L: -1% / £24.44  CAP: £2438.04

Trades:
A.  H1 ranging
B.  trade with trend freely as price has PB to 252EMA
C. LSH  (buy on PB on close above lowest session's high), untradeable because MN R over heard so RRR less than 1:1
D. Setup resembling a REV to S, however missing the PB to 252.
1.  LSH (-1), traded confirmation through MN R with an aim of trading into 252EMA.  Exit ISL (initial stop loss).
E. LSH couldn't trade because it BO 252EMA
F. REV to S I didn't trade because MN S just below.  thinking of revising this.
G. HSL, missed exit close ag 8SMA
H. REV to 252 variation ( close against prior RL high + H1 S/R.

Summary:
God I'm stuck at the moment.  I think this might have something to do with adding more and more S&R levels and fearing trading through them.  Taking tmrw off trading strategy to view the past weeks trading and delve deeper. Strategy not really working, neither am I.  Don't know if this is because of additions to my guide or because August is slow, work tomorrow will shed some light on it.  It might be as easy as reverting to an older version of my guide or as simple as the strategy is going through a draw down.  But at the moment I'm unsure which it is so feel it's best to stop momentarily and look into it. Also fits nicely into UK bank holiday this coming Monday.  So I can have tmrw off and although working it will be at a slower pace so will have a 4 day weekend which is probably a good thing as I've wound myself up tighter than a ducks arse and a little R&R and perspective will probably be a good thing.   

210813 Wow Nelly (negative)

-1.4%

Trades
A. Trade with trend because trend showing no sign of weakness
B. H1 trending, means I must respect 252EMA and not trade through it.
C. Price breaks down 252EMA cleanly ( no PB what-so-ever), needs to return to 252EMA (missed this, having breakfast)
1. HSL (highest session's low) -0.3,  Faults 1.  shouldn't have traded because of "C" 2. it didn;t actually trigger?! 3. RRR was poor. exit on realizing RRR was less than 1:1.  BUT shouldn't have traded because of "C".
2.  HSL (-0.1),  Fault. exit close above 8SMA. BUT shouldn't have traded because of "C".
3. REV thru 252EMA (-1). exit ISL. I recently changed this exit from close against 8SMA, but this result makes me question why I changed it . 
D. Three losses in a Row =  my quitting point!
E.  Price hits Weekly S and whipsaws.
F. Example of a failed HSL.

Notes:
Okay missing that big move at the beginning of the day was painful. But the 252 was so near it made the RRR whack, so couldn't chance it. Figured price would either bounce off it or BD (break down) and PB (pull back).  No luck with either! Trades 1&2 I simply shouldn't have traded (because price failed to PB to the 252 after the BD so is likely to return to it).
 I had a comment overnight from a scalper I particularly respect.  TBH this threw me for a loop, they basically asked a few questions, which I interpreted as questioning my strategy  but in reality it was a nice comment, they were interested. I miss read it  because I was tired, cranky and pissed off over yesterday. What's interesting is the way it effected my trading,  I doubted my strategy.  Of course this is no one's fault but my own but it's important to mention because now that I'm aware of this trait I know to look out for it and in the future and won't indulge it.  (At the beginning it was quite painful to admit this kind of stuff,  but I came to the realization that this is my trade journal and if I lie on the blog I'm lying to myself and I will never learn from the situations I find myself in).

Summary: I think I was in a funk over missing yesterday's big move and then missing this morning's (un-tradeable) move compounded the exasperation. This is not an excuse, just a note that my psychology (greed) is messing with my discipline at the moment and making me doubt my strategy. In fact the strategy would kept me out of trade 1&2 and  most of the weak moves in the PM. So actually the strategy performed quite well and I didn't. However I did mange my risk well on all trades.

200813 1. Frustrating 2. New Rev to Trend Setup

PL: +1.4% / £32.76  CAP £2494.67

Trades
A. price needs to return to 252 EMA
B.  H1 Ranging =  252 weak
1.  REV to & thru 252 (+1.4) as H1 was in range the 252 was weak.  Fault, exit discretionary. Could have made TPO for 2%, just wanted to book some profit. You can trade setups around major S/R provided they break them, (and you could have traded Trade C from 190813 because H1 was ranging) Add to Guide.
C. REV to R, couldn't takes as MN R just above so RRR poor.
D. trend weakens.  FTMNHC - ATMNLC
E. HSL,  could trade due to poor RRR with D1 and W1 S just below
F.  REV to Trend,  this is a new trade which uses a HSH (highest sessions high) at a RL/PB to 21EMA as the trigger,  confirmation comes when price closes above the high. Add to Guide.

Notes
In trade 1 I could trade through Monthly S because confirmation broke it.
Trade F.  Is a new setup but is really a variation on my REV to 252  setup.  But in this case instead of returning to the LT mean,  the trend instead returns to the prior trend after a little break.  Because the setup returns to trend the only confirmation required is a close above prior highs (if long) or lows (if short) as all MA's should be below Price  if it is trending.

Summary: Okay I can't lie this was a bloody frustrating day but I think (excluding scalpers) a lot of  traders might have struggled too. My problem was lack of setups.  I require strong PBs' and RL's (to the 21EMA) because I find otherwise the RRR is completely whack. TBH I went through hell, I tried writing new ideas down for trade strategies etc but managed to calm down and didn't act on them. The truth is I did trade well (except exiting trade 1 early) because I followed my strategy exactly.  The Strategy didn't perform as well as I would have liked, however it is very challenging trading safely around a truck load of major S&R and to be fair it did keep me out of 3 poor RRR trades that all would have lost me money. So I am being hard on it.  I wasn't to bothered about missing the first move up as there was D1 and W1 R to contend with. But the 2nd large move was hard  to swallow the missed opportunity. However i spotted a variation on my REV strategy which  is so obvious I'm surprised I haven't noticed it before. So actually not a bad day,  made some profit and got a new setup.

190813 1. Counter Trend LSH/HSL? 2. HOLRL/LOLPB?

P/L: -0.6% / -£14.19  CAP £2461.91

Trades:
A.  Price needs to rally to 252EMA
B. LSH @ H1 S,  this is not a setup but an observation. Spotted this counter trend trade, strictly speaking couldn't have taken it because the RRR would have been less than 1:1 before meeting 252EMA but represents an example.
C.  LSH (+1.6). Did't take this trade because my rule says Don't trend trade or if a PB/RL confirmation is a BO/BD 252EMA. Which most of the time save me from losses.

D. HOLRL @ R/252 (High of Last Rally). again not a setup but an observation I wanted to note and work on.

E. HSL @ H1 R, a variation on B.

1.  LSH (-0.6),  exit 8SMA,  TBH this trade didn't feel great because 1. the trigger real body didn't get particularly near the 21EMA and 2. confirmation candle only just scrapped above the 8SMA.  But technically it was a trade.

Notes:
Trade B+E are not setups yet, but i spotted them and thought they were interesting so wanted to make a note of them. My basic premise is not to counter trend trade unless there is trend weakness. On trade B price needed to RL to 252, so getting long at a S level made sense (trade B gave me a LSH at H1 S). On trade E price had broken MN R and needed to PB to it so getting short at a R level again seemed a fairly obvious trade ( trade E gave me a HSL at H1 R).
Trade C bugged the crap out of me and made me doubt my rules because it became such a large move. But  Monthly R was not far above the entry so the max win would have been 1.6%, so I can honestly say that in reality it is not as bad it looked or felt. I Then noted that I have an exception rule on my  "REV to 252" setup that if the H1 is ranging I can trade straight through the 252 as if it wasn't there (it doesn't count as a S/R area to factor into RRR because it's weak).  I was thinking I could apply the same rule to trend trade PB/RL. But this is not the case because the PB/RL will always have 2 areas of S/R to break , 1. the weak 252EMA but also 2. HOLRL (high of last RL) / LOLPB (Low of last PB).  Where as the REV trade incorporates a break of the HOLRL /LOLPB so it only has one S/R area to break (the weak 252EMA). Basically I don't need to doubt my rules and can actually simplify the "don't rules" to...
Don’t trend trade if there’s trend weakness (no PB/RL to 252 after BO/BD, FTMNH/L ATMNL/H)

Don't trend trade if RRR is less than 1:1 GOOD!

Don't Trend trade if a PB/RL confirmation is a BO/BD 252EMA. 

Trade D again is not a setup but an observation.  Trade C was so frustrating and I want to be careful not to grasp at straws but the basic idea here is that in a trend price can bang up against a S/R level and render PB and RL  trades useless due to poor RRR. The idea here is to continue to trade with the trend, marking the highest high at a R level (up trend) or lowest low at a S level (down trend) and trading when price closes against  that  level, resulting in 2 basic setups. 1.  In an uptrend buy when price can close above  HOLRL (High of last Rally) at a R level. 2.  in a down trend sell when price can close below LOLPB (Low of last Pullback) at a S level. 

Trade 1 bugged me because I knew that it was going to fail, as both the trigger and confirmation were poor. . The good thing is I did follow my guide. But i think I may be able to put a rule in: 

Don't trend trade if both the trigger(body nearer to 21 than 8), and confirmation(clearly abv 8) suck.

Summary:  Although similar I can't say I enjoyed my day like I did last Friday, this was just frustrating. A range in the morning,  a massive untradeable explosion through monthly R and then nothing. I know I mustn't get to disheartened, August is quite,  price is banged up against Monthly R and these massive untradeable moves happen around these big numbers. This is why only wanted to record my thoughts rather than add anything to my guide. I personally performed well because I followed my guide exactly.  The strategy didn't perform that well but I feel I can give it my leniency due to the circumstances. I am happy i made the observations and I am also very happy  I realized that they are not proven and could be white elephants.

160813 Guide worked, 3 lessons 1. H1 21EMA. 2. 8SMA & REV trades. 3. count sessions

P/L: -0.9% / -£21.26  CAP £2476.10

Trades
A.  Price needs to PB to 252EMA (H1 21EMA)
1. HSL @ MN R (-0.2), exit 8SMA. Q:  prior RL had FTMNL, is this a sign of weakness? NO
2. HSL (+0.2),  exit 8SMA. NB got v near TPO on 4 consecutive lows might have been a good idea to get out near rather than on TPO,  as highly likely to reverse. count consecutive  sessions near TPO Add to Guide
B.  Price nearly PB to 252EMA, however on H1, price does touch 21EMA (which is what the 252EMA represents) Q which is valid? H1 21EMA check H1 chart when price is near 252EMA Add to Guide

3. REV to 252 (-0.6),  exit 8SMA.  Annoyingly this trade eventually worked out which made me question whether I should use the same early exit strategies on my "REV" trades (which are technically BO/BD, so PB/RL are likely) as I do on my PB/RL trades. And instead only adopt early exit rules once price has closed in profit? A: Having checked all my prior REV trades I can confirm that despite being rare, universally I can expect a PB/RL after entry and on all REV trades adopting "early exit's" only after the trade had closed abv/blw entry price made no difference to the result or  improved it! Only adopt 8SMA exit on REV trades once price has closed in profit. Add to Guide
4. MN SS REV to 252 (-0.3). Okay this was a made up trade  but it just seemed to make sense as it's an amalgamation of 2 setups. didn't work wanted to try it, it happens Discretionary.
C. LSH, untradeable because 1.  it BO MN R and 2.  the RRR was less than 1:1 before meeting D1 R.

Summary:  Enjoyed today, always interesting when price is bunched up next to so much major S&R.  Strategy performed well again, keeping me on track. I traded well until I discretionary traded Trade 4 ( I had a hard-on for the 252EMA and was going to take anything that would get me to it), not too upset you've got to try these occasionally or else you go mad wondering "what if". I always think" If you're going lose -  learn" and I did. 

150813 Data trade, Trusting guide, Communication

PL:  -0.3%/ -£7.83   CAP £2497.36

Trades:
A.  Price needed to PB to 252 ( expect slow start/range as ITA anf FRE bank holiday)
B.  HSL,  avoided due to very tight direction MAs and weak confirmation
1.  HSL (-0.3),  exit close against 8SMA,  Fault1. didn't check guide RRR was less than 1:1 =  no trade. 2.  treated like a normal trade and exited on. Exit early as soon as you spot a fault Add to Guide
C. HSL, avoided because RRR less than 1:1
D. Price still needing to return to 252EMA before tradeable
E.  Data Trade.  this is an oldie but a goodie that I have not yet added to my current guide. You stop trading 30 mins beofre a major result.  If data comes out as expected  wait 10 mins for volatility to die down, then resume trading normally.  IF a Major change happens (better/worse than expected), wait for the first 5 mintue bar to close then trade with it's direction, exits all as usual NB can trade through 252 on data trades Add to Guide
F. Price needs to RL to 252 after BD.
G. Price BD D1 252EMA and RL, does this override the need for a 252 RL? A: reviewed past action = NO
H. Potential HSL valid? A: NO should wait until a RL to 252 (0),  exit TSL.

Notes:
In recent weeks my communication with other traders has increased massively and I'm very grateful for it. It is interesting to see what others are doing and how they trade the market to suit their personality. It only strengthens my resolve that no one method is right, wrong or better than someone else's. IMHO it's all about finding a method that matches your logic (the way you reason/think), as this way you're far less likely to have psychological problems with it. After chatting with a trader who wrote an interesting post on using a top down approach ( one can see it here) I realised that although starting that way I have actually become more of a bottom up trader without realizing it. This is because the top down approach didn't match my logic, so my psychology got very upset as it felt it was too slow and I was missing out on lots of moves.
As a side note: My logic says that the forex market is ruled my emotions (not supply and demand) as the only thing that can change the supply of a currency is its central bank (and they only change the supply once a month, if that), so if the market's moving it must be due to emotions because there's been no change in valuation. To me there is only optimism (up), pessimism (down) and  indecision (choppy). I want to trade with the trend of the smallest time frame I can manage because emotions change quickly, not slowly. But before placing a trade I (try to) always judge it in regards to it's proximity to LT S&R to avoid any silly losses.  I am also happy to drill out to a higher time frame if I can't get the direction. But essentially I want the fast moves, in fact I actually find them easier to trade as I get information quickly about how they're doing,  so don't micro manage them. My method is no more right or wrong than anyone else's it just suits my logic and psychology better than another strategy would.

Summary:  Strategy performed well. keeping me out of poor chart action.  I was particularly pleased that some of the blogs I respect the most (successful scalpers) are also struggling to find any trades at the moment, which has helped me not question my strategy keeping me out for long periods. I could have performed better by avoiding a silly loss (from not checking for underlying resistance), but I did manage my money well  and kept it small. The only trade that could have made me money was an old strategy of mine based on data but it would have worked, so pleased with that and will put it in to trade big data results.

140813 1. Slow but Good day ( Guide prevailed) 2. add MN S&R + D1 21EMA

P/L: -0.4% / -£10.83 CAP £2505.19

Trades:
A.  Price needed to RL to 252EMA
B. LSH, that didn't meet my criteria as confirmation crossed over 252EMA (BO)
1.  REV to S (-0.4), exit close against 8SMA,  fault ,  price had BD 252 (without a RL) should have waited for the RL before trading. So this trade was void. The only trade you can trade the XO/XD of the 252 is the REV thru 252. Add to guide.
C.  Constant XO/XD of 252EMA =  no trades due to waiting for PB/RL/trend to develop
D. Price again needed to RL to 252EMA
E.  LSH couldn't trade because confirmation was XO of 252.

Notes:
1. Trade 1: Don't trade if Price has XO/XD 252EMA without a RL/PB except on REV thru 252 Add to Guide
2. My analysis improved dramatically as I have finally accepted that the guide is king.  There's no "ifs and buts",  it's black and white.  If the guide says trade - trade, if the guide says wait - wait. It has also taken a huge amount of pressure off me as I no longer feel responsible to create trades.  The guide creates trades,  my only job during the trading day is to follow the guide. Add to Guide
3. Spotted an H1 setup (HSL) on drilling out for a wider view following such a choppy M5 morning. But on checking to see what kind of S&R factors there could be discovered W1 S and D1 21EMA below it which nullified the would be trade as the RRR was less than 1:1. Place W1 and MN S&R D1, place MN,W1,D1 S&R and D1 21EMA (H1 504EMA) on H1 chart. Add to guide

4. H1. LSH and HSL trigger must PB/RL and touch 21EMA,  conf close w 8SMA and hi's/lo's. Add to Guide.

Summary: Despite a loss I'm really happy with today.  Listless choppy day and my guide kept me out of all of it, only one mistake trading on a BD (break-down) of 252.  But this was not in my rules regarding REV trades, so even this can be forgiven (and has now been updated). Happy with my efforts and discipline following plan, happy with effectiveness of guide. 

130813 Patience and Discipline NB on M1 strategy

PL: +2% / £36.80 (didn't quite put full size on) CAP £2516.02

Trades/Action:
A.  Price needs to RL to 252 before I trend trade (can counter trend trade back into 252EMA)
1. REV thru 252 (+2). Exit TPO
B. Price needs to RL to 252 before I trend trade (can counter trend trade back into 252EMA)
C. Price needs to PB to 252 before I trend trade (can counter trend trade back into 252EMA)
D. Price needs to RL to 252 before I trend trade (can counter trend trade back into 252EMA)

Notes: 
Lots of cross overs / downs (XO/XD) of the 252 EMA without a following PB (pullback) or RL (rally) that I require. This is because the 252EMA represents the LT trend to me and as such a RL or PB to it is highly probable, so trading away from it before it has done this can be quite painful on reversals! Glad I spotted all of the XO/XD and despite feeling like I missed some profit in the PM, acknowledge that it is far more important to follow my strategy than discretionary trade.
Potential M1 TF strategy idea playing around with.  trend  = 21EMA/50SMA. Trade with the trend
 ie 21 above 50 =  long.  Trigger price PB and closes below 50SMA (mark lowest candle's high),  Confirmation Price close above 50 SMA and trigger's high. RRR1:1 ISL conf low + 4 pips,  Exit cls ag 50SMA
.


Summary: Strategy performed well and so did I. A good day.

120813 Probabilities for wins losses and trend

PL: -1.6% -£34.63 . CAP £2479.22

Trades
A.  HSL (+0.8),  exit close against 8SMA.
B. HSL (+2),  exit TPO
C. HSL (+0.6),  exit close against 8SMA
1.  HSL (-0.6),  exit close agaisnt 8SMA
2. HSL (-1), exit ISL hit

Notes
Trades 1 had particularly narrow 8/21 on confirmation.  Although still technically a trade clearly showing weakness.
Trade 2 had managed to reorder it's MA's however the thought occurred to me that there were 3 winners in a row early in the day and why shouldn't I have quit there?! After all my quitting point for losing trades is 3 in a row as it shows my edge isn't working.  While 3 winners in a row show that my strategy is working but I'm running low in terms of probability favour. It's all thoroughly interesting and perplexing at the same time. This is because even if my edge is working I only have a 12.5% (one in eight) chance of winning a 4th consecutive trade in a row. Also as an interesting and maybe more profitable after thought this should also true with long and short trades.  IE 3 long trades  =  probability of a short trade increases to 88% which may in fact be a more profitable way of managing ones trades. Something for me to digest tonight!

Long/Short (Win/Loss) Ratio
	1 Trade	2 Trades	3 Trades	4 Trades	5 Trades	6 Trades	7 Trades
L = Long (win)	L	LL	LLL	LLLL
S = Short (loss)	S	SS	LLS	LLLS
		LS	LSL	LLSL
		SL	SLL	LSLL
			LSS	SLLL
			SLS	LLSS
			SSL	LSSL
			SSS	SSLL
				LSLS
				SLSL
				SLLS
				LSSS
				SLSS
				SSLS
				SSSL
RESULTS	2	4	8	15	30	60	120
100					approx	approx	approx
chance of consecutive Long / Short / Win / Loss %	50.00	25.00	12.50	6.67	3.34	1.67	0.83

Summary:

Great day for strategy and for me as I followed my guide exactly, Plus I've learnt (remembered) basic probability theory. Unfortunately had problems at home which required plumber and being on hold for 45 minutes which kept from trading in the morning.  

080813 1st Month Summary

• I am down -10.8% / -£307  (instead of up the 100% my back-testing suggested)
• My strategy has changed immensely ( I practically have a new one)
• I am feeling  positive

Summary:  At the start the back-tested strategy didn't work very well in reality (slippage, overtrading), so in the second week I went about revising it. This required lots of trial and error that clocked up some large losses (but for the greater good). The strategy then started to perform well but due to not trading throughout the day, personal problems and bad health it was not traded correctly by me. The overriding positive is that the strategy now basically works, it's just been hindered by external problems (my health and my life).  At the beginning of the month I had good health and a bad strategy.  At the end of the month I have poor health (that will go) and a good strategy.

The following is a break down of the weeks making up the first month.

Green =  Positives  

Red = Negatives

Orange = Updates

Main reason for wins =  following strategy
Main reason for losses =  amending, learning, experimenting strategy /  poor health /  external factors taking me away from charts /  messy(unclear) guide

WEEK 1 -1.65% (4 days) complete beginning had no idea what reality was!

Surmised using positives and negatives which is useful when reviewing!

I was poor at Iding chart action

I was good at money management

good trade management

trading in 3 sessions  throughout day

trading up to 11 trades per day

trading both with and against trend LSH HSL

wasn't using TPO at 2% and fought myself introducing it!

made loss of -2.15% prompting first major change to ONLY trading LSH and HSL with trend (21/50)

WEEK 2 -6.3% (4 days) started on massively revised strategy lots of learning and adapting =  biggest loss

Introduced new strategy

Number trades per day dropped to 5 due to new method

Introduce TPO at 2%

Spotted REV to 252 / S/R strategy and started refining it

Introduced Quitting point (3 losses in a row)

Introduced 8/21 as new direction

Started to spot lots of trade occurring outside of the 3 trading sessions

Added D1 and W1 S&R

Poor at Iding charts

good money management

good trade management

work on trend weakness

WEEK 3 +0.7% (5 day week) less adapting, starting to learn new strategy but not trading thorughout day  =  gain, but only small.

First 5 day week

Starting to think about trading throughout day

introduced H1 S&R

Strategy guide getting messy

introduced REV thru 252 setup

good money management

good trade management

WEEK 4 -1.9% (5 day week)  Strategy performing well.  Start of personal problems keeping me from markets, still revising , guide getting messy. =  loss 

Introduction of trading througout day  

Don't trade confirmations thru 252 and D1 W1 S&R

Adjusted TPO (don't know if really that necessary now?)

Flat problems

Health Eye problems

Personal performance slipping (due to "tiredness")

Strategy performing well

good money management

good trade management

introduction of 252 Weakness in range 

messing with 21EMA exit 

1st major slip of really not following rules (no PB to 252EMA)

potential 252 PB?RL HM/SS trades

Guide getting messy again.

WEEK 5 -2.1% (3 day week) Strategy performing well. but psychological problems still lingering from last week + ill keeps me from trading = loss 

Start week still in a mess psychologically from last week

Starting to feel ill

in all honest drank too much this weekend too!

Flirted/experimented with and ruled out DWTL/UWTL to 50SMA setup

Strategy working well

good money mangement

good trade management

H1 range =  PB/RL where 8 can't stay above 21EMA

Goals for Second Month: 

• Despite now having a working strategy I don't feel it will be as profitable as my hypothetical back-tested strategy. So I am reducing my long term expectations of it  to 3% per day / 15% per week / 60% per month / 720% per year. 
• Because the new strategy is only very loosely based on the original I am treating it as a new strategy 2.0.  As such I'm going to reset my starting balance to what is in my demo account currently (£2513.85) and will work to triple this. I don't think it's fair or or logical to make a new strategy make up the losses an old one,  learning and experimentation created. 
• Finally I want to follow the new guide (when written and tidied) to the letter and record all results and observations on this blog.

Goal Summary:  In the first month I learnt that my back-tested strategy didn't work in reality and spent my time creating a new one based very loosely on the original. My mission is to now follow this new strategy exactly, aiming for 3% per day (60%PM) until I have tripled the balance in my demo account (£2513.85) and record all trades and observations on this blog.