June 2014 Summary : R -2.3

So I got stopped out a lot

My ISLs were getting hit for 2 reasons...
1. Not trading the best PA. "Wicky" and "Rangy", so lots of tests of levels. To be precise the two trades this occurred on I was shorting into two equal(ish) lows very close to each other (so a W)
2. Being too stingy with ISL (must be spread + 1 full pip)

My Winning trades were...
1.  In Clear trend (MA's and trendline obvious and if trendline not clear, trend was very strong.)
2.  With only 1 top above or bottom below to get through.
3.  PB/RL to 20 and S/R

R-0.3 Stingy on ISL, Prep and Patience Good Though

GU Trade (ISL slightly too tight 2.8pips, instead of 3 pips resulted in getting squeezed out.  On a positive note I let this trade play out, rather than exiting early. With correct ISL placement = BE)

EJ Trade (waited for everything to line up, entered and held)

23rd - 27th June PL: R+1.1

Monday-Wednesday Issues:  Busy personal life (moving house)

Thursday: Simply waited for everything to line up and shorted.

Friday: Simply waited for everything to line up and shorted.

R+0.6 A Trade and Some Apprehension

GU Trade...

EU Obs...

EJ Obs...

R+0.5 Time to Stop Hypothosising and Start Trading

This week I have been a bit tied up and initially decided to watch rather than trade. This lead to lots of observations which predictably started to contradict each other and to the following thought...

Ultimately I don't know and will never know which setup is going to work.  But I can improve my odds by trading levels where lots of other trades will be doing a similar things.  IE shorting at convergences of R like a horizontal or diagonal level and a downward trending 20EMA... It also stands to reason that should this trade get stopped out, a lot of other traders will be being stopped out in similar levels too. So getting long in this influx of buy/cover orders should be a fairly safe and logical play.

On the chart side I've seen every possible variation on a setup work in every type of chart action.  But for me and my nerves I prefer...
1. predominately orderly candles (only a few hi waves)
2.  A clear Trendline,  failing that a clear trend
3.  trending MA's 8/20
4.  Buying with trend (8/20) on orderly tests of the 20EMA and a level of S. Selling with trend on orderly tests at the 20EMA and a level of R. And reversing the position should either trade get stopped out to capitalize on other traders covering too.

GU Trade..

Orderly Tests of S/R Are More Important Than Where The S/R Originated

EU Obs...

Original S&R appear Stronger than Polarity Change S&R

EU Obs...

Practice Read

EU Obs...  (Clear Trendlines and Moving Averages = Better Trades)

No Clear Trendline = No Clear Trade...... Clear Trendline = Trade as and When MAs Clear

Getting back into the swing by just PA again. My trade direction has for sometime been the 8/20 (8 abv 20 = long,  8blw 20 = short).  I have however had some issues with this in the past, particularly in ranges when this "direction" can chop about. Friday I was watching the EU, EJ, and GU and noticed the following...

Clear Trend-line(s) = Trade as and when Moving Averages are clear

No Clear Trend-line =  No Trades even if Moving averages are clear

EU Obs...(Clear TL and MAs = Clear Trades)

EJ Obs... (Clear TL but unclear MA's = No Trades)

GU Obs... (No Clear TL, even with a obvious MAs =  Not trades)

Observation: Above yesterdays levels = better flow

Been off a couple of weeks, just a warm up...

EU broke out above yesterday's high early as such PA had little interference.

The EJ on the other hand got slammed by yesterday's Hi

2nd-7th June PL: -3.0

Monday Issues: Not Trading the freshest levels and ISL too tight/

Tueday Issues:  No valid setups

Wednesday Issues: ISL too tight

Thursday/Friday: Personal Issues + don't particularly like trading big data.

R-1.0 Stop Loss Too Tight

Stop Loss too tight, this kind of happened on Monday too.  Something to think about.
GU Trade... Looking to short toward 1.67,  getting out before it was hit.  Stop Loss too tight. Then missed second opportunity (away from screen).

R+0 No Valid Setups

GU Obs... (price O/C ag 20 making this trade "invalid", however with so much supporting factors it was probably a mistake to pass on it!)

R-2.0 Pressuring Myself To Trade = Not Trading Freshest Levels

Had some fear issues last week resulting in missed trades and was tentatively working on something to overcome this on the weekend. Idea was pretty much to "trade every strategy that meets my criteria regardless of emotion". I implemented this mindset this AM.  However my PL has blown up and the trades I took weren''t "perfect", suggesting that at least for the time being "trading every setup" is putting too much pressure on me, thus inducing panic and resulting in reduced performance / I don't perform well under pressure.

EJ Trades:  Favoured a short.  "1" was too early, "2" didn't TSL,  "B" had lost confidence for.

Levels explained...

GU Obs: Easily the best trade, had I been concentrating...