October 2014 Summary: R-3.2

0-4 Large drop due to still ironing out how I was tackling trading

7-11 Drop caused by not SARing when a trend went against me

18-21 Discretionary exit caused over trading (2 extra unneeded trades)

23-25 Drop caused by getting whipsawed on a HM (because I wasn't trading it correctly!) triggering more over-trading.

27th-31st October 2014: R+0.9

Monday: Discretionary exit cut gains short. Missed with trend RL trades.

Tuesday: Simple M top,  but lacked courage to get in on trend PB's.

Wednesday: No trades market very sloppy before FOMC

Thursday: Simple W bottom, again missed a with trend RL.

Friday: hard trend created by BOJ,  struggled to get in on PB's no doubt due to my apprehension regarding the trend trades this week.

Notes: First profitable week in a long time. All trades were reversals however I don't think this reflects why the week was profitable as I clearly missed some good with trend PB and RL trades. Started the week quite fearful of HMs and SSs after getting ripped up by them last week. Think/know this fear transferred into fear of doji,  hi wave and narrow range bars all of which usually occur at PBs and RLs so completely debilitated me in these situations. Ironically I was reading "naked forex" this week which is particularly good at defining good and bad HMs and SSs so this started to dissipate towards the end of the week but threw me as I was trying to follow my statement from last week not to trade HMs and SSs.

Summary: Continue to trade classic M tops and W bottoms. Re-read "naked forex" chapters on HM's and SS's and apply rules to my trading strategy over the weekend to regain courage in entering with trend on PBs/RLs.  Take every setup that meets my critrea (PB/RL on S&R or S/R failure) remembering I can always SAR should they go against me.
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UPDATE 031114
Basically I want to trade every Bull and Bear Sweet Spot be it counter trend or a with trend PB/RL with the exception of those with trend setups whose triggers are HMs and SSs that ...

• print after a large correction 
• Don't stick out of consolidation (HM lower/SS higher)
• Don't occur on S/R level major or minor

AND SAR any with trend trades that fail.

In the last 2 weeks of the 22 with trend setups only 4 failed to reach the next level of S/R! An 80% success rate.

R+0: BOJ Triggered a Strong Trend I Struggled To Get In On...

... Started doubting uptrends in UJ and EJ after LL-LH+TLB, lost bottle to get long at a LL (as Al Brooks says) but that is precisely what I should have done on both!

UJ Obs:

UPDATE ALT Read:

EJ Obs: Same as UJ

EU Obs: yuck!

R+0.3: A Little Apprehensive But Got A Double Bottom (EU)

• Definitely lost track that I can always SAR should a trade go sour (created apprehension!)
• Started Trailing Stop, not something I'm unfamiliar but as I'm now that I'm trying to hold trades reintroducing TSL's definitely helped nerves.
• HM/SS Triggers: A few worked today, but I have a better understanding of why (in a cluster of overlapping bars, w large tail and @S/R) since reading "Naked Forex".

EU Trade: "W" long

EJ Obs: Lost confidence in trend ( due to forgetting that I could always SAR)

UJ Obs:

R+0: No Trades, Some High/Low Confusion & Big Bar Fear

Couple of Things...

• In a downtrend even after a HL I must stay short until the last High is taken out (triggers SAR).
• In an uptrend even after a LH I must stay long until the last low is taken out (trigger SAR).

EJ  Obs: was best chart,  got confused with HL-SL in downtrend.

EU Obs:  Lots of big bars and relatively large spread in comparison gave me the shits.

UJ Obs:

R+0.5: Simple M Top Short, Could Of Held Longer (EU)

Few notes...

• Marking M30 S&R as wider blue rectangles
• Marking M5 S&R as narrower blue rectangles
• At the moment don't have any problem trading off either type of S&R
• But trying to let profit (PTs) run into M30 levels

EU Trade:

EJ Obs:

UJ Obs:

R+0.1: Discretionary Exit Cut Gains Short (UJ)

UJ Trade: Cut winner short

EJ Obs:

EU Obs: ??? Yuck!

20-24th October 2014: R-1.6

Monday: Away

Tuesday: failed to SAR!

Wednesday: Nice simple setup

Thursday: Discretionary exit triggered 2 unneeded extra trades that mounted to a loss I couldn't surpass (1st big drop in PL)

Friday: With trend HM trigger got whipsawed and like Thursday triggered 2 unneeded extra trades that mounted to a loss I couldn't surpass (2nd big drop in PL)

Goal for next week: Take each and every setup with the exclusion of those with a HM,SS,Doji trigger. Continue to trade should I go in the red, SAR's may not get me completely back in the black but they sure get me near. Let my trade plan and orders play out or I risk the very real chance of over-trading.  Be aware that after a new level prints (high/low) its opposite can from very quickly after (low/high).

R-1.3: HM trigger Chopped Me Up And Started Over Trading (UJ)

Was only down R-0.3 at start of day, thought might get first BE week for a long time, ha! Glad I carried on and got a little back.

• F~%&ing HM's/SS's/Doji are killing me.
• Lacked awareness that PA can flip a HH-HL (LL-LH) on a dime so missed a couple of goodies.
• Emphasised importance to me of trading off S or R levels with the prevailing trend not reversing until the trend fails.

EJ Trades:

UJ Obs:

EU Obs:

R-0.6: One Discretionary Exit Screwed Day (UJ)

• Even bars need a little leeway to avoid being stop hunted/discretionary exit
• M30 chart was quite useful for S&R PT levels (just like JMF3 said a year ago!),  research!
• Find it hard to hold after trade temporarily goes from profit into loss

UJ Trades: Should have let short at "1" get stopped then SAR'd it (trade 4), avoiding trades 2+3!

EU Trade:

R+0.6: One Simple RL Short (EU), Avoided 2 Others Due to HL (EJ,UJ)

Missed a couple of Shorts on EJ and UJ as price had made a higher low prior to the setups, weakening my conviction in the trend.

EU Trade: Guess I could've tried for 1.27, but happy with prior low

EJ Obs:

UJ Obs:

Maintaining Persistance

There were a  few things in the last week or so that all seem to relate to the title...Particularly after today's missed SAR.

 Started with a post chat with Trin Cafe on google plus last week...

Saw JMF3 had added a bit to the Mark Douglas bit on his blog....

Finally saw this in "Fighters Only" magazine, an article for fighters trying to get out of a slump the 5 tips seemed applicable to trading.

R-0.3: Poor Exit (EU), Good Exit (EJ), Failured to SAR (EJ)

Failing to SAR the EJ =  biggest regret of session.

EU Trade:

EJ Trade:

12-17th October 2014: R-1.0

Monday Issues: would have been profitable, Failed to SAR and to continue trading.

Tuesday Issues: Profitable Trade. Could/should have continued.

Wednesday: Good trade just screwed up sizes on SAR's so didn't get back to BE.

Thursday: Better day. Took all trades initially, got out once back to BE. Could have continued.

Friday: Late start plus avoided some profitable trade as triggers were doji.


Goal for next Week:  Take each and every setup and continue to trade should I go in the red. SAR's may not get me completely back in the black but they sure get me near. Also start trading doji triggers again.

R 0 : Missed One, Avoided Two

Slightly late start meant I missed one setup, avoided a couple due to their triggers being doji.

Q: to trade or not to trade doji? ... made quite a point about not doing so last week

EU Obs:

UJ Obs

EJ Obs:

R+0.1: Unlike Yesterday Managed To Get Back To BE

Reads are getting easier and my belief in my convictions is slowly but steadily growing. Happy with EU trades,  had I been around for the second LH marked on chart I would have taken the short meaning that the SAR of it (getting long at "1") was correct. Would have been nice to get a couple of the UJ trades to supplement session.

EU Trades:

UJ Obs:

Faster Counter Trend Trade?

Pretty happy with my reads, I think I'm getting the direction right a lot of the time now and understand why. But I think I might be able to improve upon is my counter trend trades / reversals of trend in terms of getting in earlier....

TBH Not that sure about he following but I've written it so here it is for posterity...

In an uptrend I am currently using a LH then a break below prior low as confirmation of a reversal... I think I can probably short the top of the LH (at least into the prior low) and should it not reverse back to trend there, hold on to it.
Positive factors a LH is a potential M Top in all likelihood the prior Hi will work as resistance strengthening the trade, should it reverse way before the prior high this is clear weakness.

Thoughts on trading this idea... I should actually be able to get long with trend at the HL+S then treack the lows of each bar with my SL, because should it reverse below the prior bar's low this would mark a new high/top , should that high be above the prior high, then I must wait for a PB to then get back in with the trend. But should that high be below the prior high this would mark a LH and should be shorted back immediately....

R-0.6: Failed Longs So went Short, Got Their Sizes Wrong and Exited Early

Q: Can I short a LH is an uptrend?
Obs: Can strengthen counter trend trades by converging factors ie IB+SS+LH

 UJ Trades:

EJ Trades:

R+0.2:Quit After First Trade Worked

UJ Trade: simply waited for a PB to R and a HL

EJ Obs: Noted yesterday that trading each HL in an uptrend/LH in a downtrend is "possible" but probably foolish as it is easier to sell and lows and buy at highs.

R-0.6: Lacked Courage of Convictions

EU Obs: Reads good.  Just didn't follow through with thoughts...

UJ Trade/Obs: Reads good.  Just didn't follow through with thoughts...

R+0.3: Short Session, One Good, One Bad

EU Trade:  exited early on realisation that I bought late

 UJ Trade:  trading with trend