Old Thought: To date my thinking on daily bias has been to get with the H4 trend (at H4 supply/demand) whenever possible. And trade with the M30 trend (at M30 supply/demand) when between H4 levels. The issue with this is that it can cause ambiguity and as Paul says "Ambiguity in a fast moving market is going to kill you" which I thouroughly agree. it can be a fast death or a slow death through a thousand paper cut.
Issue: The ambiguity I'm talking about comes when price action is between H4 supply and demand levels or when the M30 trend is (sorry to use it again) ambiguous. What is my bias in this case? do I trade up or down? Even when I think of it in terms of the long-term/H4 trend it has still been confusing. For example: H4 trend is down and price is equidistant from H4 supply and demand. Do I trade price down with the H4 trend off an M30 supply level OR up into the stronger H4 supply level for a "better/stronger" short with the long term trend, where there will a greater supply/demand imbalance but where I'm fighting the trend to get there?!
Today's Thought: Today my thinking has evolved to this: Yes, I want to get in with the H4 trend but more importantly, I want to be buying low (at H4 demand) and selling high (at H4 supply). I want to be trading price into H4 S&D and then off it, and into the next when it is reached... with a slight bias to holding shorts if the trend is down and longs if the trend is up.
Translating the above into a plan...
In morning while labeling my levels, whichever H4 level price touched last I should trade away from, as price/Suppdy&Demand is doing so itself. IE the EJ today was a right conundrum for me, bang in the middle of H4 Supply and Demand. However viewing it as I just mentioned, Price has most recently touched an H4 supply level and fallen from it, thus I reasoned I should be shorting away from it and into H4 demand below using H4 or M30 supply as entries...
Put another way If I am waiting for price to reach a supply I can short at I should be getting long into it. And if I am waiting for price to reach a demand level I can get long at I should be getting short into it.
Issue: The ambiguity I'm talking about comes when price action is between H4 supply and demand levels or when the M30 trend is (sorry to use it again) ambiguous. What is my bias in this case? do I trade up or down? Even when I think of it in terms of the long-term/H4 trend it has still been confusing. For example: H4 trend is down and price is equidistant from H4 supply and demand. Do I trade price down with the H4 trend off an M30 supply level OR up into the stronger H4 supply level for a "better/stronger" short with the long term trend, where there will a greater supply/demand imbalance but where I'm fighting the trend to get there?!
Today's Thought: Today my thinking has evolved to this: Yes, I want to get in with the H4 trend but more importantly, I want to be buying low (at H4 demand) and selling high (at H4 supply). I want to be trading price into H4 S&D and then off it, and into the next when it is reached... with a slight bias to holding shorts if the trend is down and longs if the trend is up.
Translating the above into a plan...
In morning while labeling my levels, whichever H4 level price touched last I should trade away from, as price/Suppdy&Demand is doing so itself. IE the EJ today was a right conundrum for me, bang in the middle of H4 Supply and Demand. However viewing it as I just mentioned, Price has most recently touched an H4 supply level and fallen from it, thus I reasoned I should be shorting away from it and into H4 demand below using H4 or M30 supply as entries...
Put another way If I am waiting for price to reach a supply I can short at I should be getting long into it. And if I am waiting for price to reach a demand level I can get long at I should be getting short into it.
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