Monday, 27 January 2014

My trading goes to pot after 0830?!

PL R-3    £-60.21


Summary:  okay this morning started relatively well then all went to hell in the 2nd hour of my session. I don't know why this has only just occurred to me but I thought this happens all the bloody time. So I went back over my AM sessions and tallied it up to realize that after 0830 my results turn to shite and this is mostly due to the action getting choppy and triggering lots of SAR trades. So I'm going to try out just trading from 0720-0830GMT. I also had a look at the US session but it appears that it is best to trade it 1330 as per usual but ending a little earlier might do some good as the US session slows a little, about 1415. This doesn't mean I should close all trades at 0830/1415,  but I shouldn't take any new ones, letting the current ones play out.
Another thing that I realized , again stupidly late.  Is that my longs are worse than my shorts because I have the 1.5pip spread to make up on them each time.  So although I'm not going to stop trading them I should probably do so with a PT devised from the actual entry rather than entry + spread.
I should stop trading after 2% loss (trade7) because it's just soul destroying  looking a -3% losses.
Finally I can get in on already triggered trades, if they return to the entry level.  Using the same risk as the original trade but updating the stop level to current action to minimise risk.
Trade from 0720-0830GMT&1330-1415GMT, take spread into account on long PTs, get in past trades with original size but minimized risk.  Quit for day after a 2% loss.
  

1. Missed this long PB to prior PBLs (not at screen) might want to start 0720GMT
2. Saw this one but this short was based off S&R not on my current chart so avoided, maybe unwisely (can track back a little).
3. Long off PB to prior PBLs, Entry tick, Exit counter trade triggered (off PC) might be incorrect?! R+0.4 
4-9 occurred after 0830...
4. Short off test of (PC)RLH,  Entry tick,  Exit SAR at 5. R-0.7
5.  SAR long of 4 as price makes a LSH at R. Entry tick,  Exit counter trade triggered R-0.2
6. Short off test of prior RLHs,  Entry Tick, exit SAR at 7. R-0.8
7. SAR long of 6 as price makes a LSH at R,  Entry tick R-0.7
8. Short off test of RLHs,  Entry tick, Exit Stop R-0.9
9. Missed long off prior, just had enough/ quit for day.
NY Session
10. Shorted off prior RL high,  exit TSL R -0.1
11.  saw but avoided long off PB low.

Saturday, 25 January 2014

Weekly Summary 250114 : A Spate of Poor Entries

PL: R-4.2   £-72.87


Closed Trade P/L:-72.87



Equity:2 002.17Free Margin:2 002.17
 
Details:
Gross Profit:54.67Gross Loss:127.54Total Net Profit:-72.87
Profit Factor:0.43Expected Payoff:-5.21 
Absolute Drawdown:87.10Maximal Drawdown:106.48 (5.08%)Relative Drawdown:5.08% (106.48)
 
Total Trades:14Short Positions (won %):6 (16.67%)Long Positions (won %):8 (25.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):3 (21.43%)Loss trades (% of total):11 (78.57%)


SUMMARY: Friday says it all "The general strategy of trading off a recent level when tested is effective but the technicalities of how I execute the trades has been the issue". Last week I was over-trading. This week I managed to reign in the overtrading but I was still executing the action poorly. The two areas are Entry's and Exits. But I have been learning throughout the week and have some fixes to apply.

POSITIVES
1. Money management
2. Cutting down the overtrading
3. Working on the execution of the strategy.

NEGATIVES
The Entry issues have been 
1. trading off old (untested levels) levels,
2. trading triggers that are detached from/grazed a level,
3. trading inside bars.
4.trading triggers that have only grazed a level less than 0.5pip penetration
The Exit issues have been
5. Discretionary exits. be they greed/fear based or
6.  due to poor counter entries listed above.

FIXES
1. Don't trade old levels, infact don't even mark them,  only trade the levels you can see on your screen
2+4: Only trade triggers that are incontact with a level and penetrated by at least 0.5 pips (you want to see some clear wick on the otherside).
3. at least for the time being stop trading inside bars.
5+6. Only exit on TSL or genuine counter signal (see 1,2+4)

ADDITIONS
Good or bad, anything can happen so do not try and predict what the market is going to do. Let it tell you when to enter and tell you when to exit.

"I'm trying to enter the day with no bias and just trade/flow with what the market gives/does, as I'm coming to the realization that even when trend trading there are times when I will be fighting the market (at reversals)".

"I do not need to know the specifics of what is going to happen each day. I just need to know that the market will create something everyday, and all I have to do is flow with it."

"simplicity, prep and context beat convoluted, fancy and intricate"


SUMMARY OF TRADES/TRADING
Monday: When setting PT's use R2 as a guide but base the actually off the nearest price context. Use most recent levels, forget old ones. They will only be tested and it is this updated level you should be trading from. Stop discretionary exiting!
M1. Good Entry ,  Good Exit (TSL, could have discetionary for 2% though) 
M2. Poor Entry (old R), Exit Good
M3. Poor Entry (SAR had detaached from R),  Exit Good
M4. Good Entry , Poor Exit (discretionary)
Tuesday:Very frustrated as I'm getting shaken out of correct trades due to counter signals rather than fear. Check to make sure price has really reached a level before using it. Once in a trade only exit on your stop being hit or a counter trigger off another, valid level.
T1. Poor Entry (price not in contact with level) Exit good
T2. Poor Entry (price not in contact with level) Exit good
T3. Good Entry , Poor Exit (inside bar / discretionary)
T4. Poor Entry (inside bar).  Good Exit
Wednesday: Despite tempting, stop trading off old S/R levels, (trade the recent ones) wait for the test and trade off the test level it's more accurate! and for the time being avoid trading inside bars as of these both of these are knocking you out of holding good trades.
W1: Poor Entry (Old level), Exit good
W2: Poor entry (inside bar), Exit good
W3.Poor entry (inside bar), Exit good
Thursday: Good or bad, anything can happen so do not try and predict what the market is going to do. Let it tell you when to enter and tell you when to exit. 
Th1: Good Entry, Poor Exit (discretionary)
Friday: you want to see some clear wick on the otherside of the level on your trigger.The general strategy of trading off a recent level when tested is effective but technicalities of how I execute the trades is the issue.
F1: Good entry, Poor Exit (counter trade triggered with only a graze of a level)
F2. Poor Entry (trigger only grazed level), Good Exit


SWINGS: NA

Friday, 24 January 2014

Execution Additions

PL: R-0.9     £-18.33

Summary: The trigger of 2 was a HM that barely grazed the prior PBL level then triggered, this trade eventually got stopped out. I've had this happen before, despite working as triggers a deeper penetration would likely have made this trigger more successful.  Perhaps triggers should not only require that they touch the level but an imposed penetration requirement of say 0.5 pip (you want to see some clear wick on the otherside of the level) should be asked for confirming an actual "test". A "touch" would literally being a graze of the level and should not be traded. Had this been appiled  I could have held (1) on a TSL through the congestion. The general strategy of trading off a recent level when tested is effective but technicalities of how I execute the trades is the issue.

Green Arrows = Entries  Red Arrows = Exits

1. Short off test of prior RLHs,  entry tick blw prior bar low, Exit trade 2 triggered. R+0.1
2. Long off test of prior PBLs,  entry tick abv prior bar high, Exit ISL. R-1

Thursday, 23 January 2014

Did all the work but got off the ride early.

PL: R+1.7   £+32.56

Psychology: I was thinking today that I'm probably insane. The reason for this is that in the last 3 months and still now, I actually believe I'm going to make it, despite all my results saying otherwise. Is that faith, insanity or both?  I don't know, I don't even know if it matters, it's just a thought... However having said all that you might have noticed I was a little perturbed yesterday, "youfuckingfuck" rarely comes out of the bag. So there was definitely some kind of disconnect from this "faith" yesterday. To clarify I wanted to throw my laptop out of the window then piss on it. 
Yesterday I have never felt so frustrated and disheartened. The nearest I can sum it up to is the following, and in this exact order... 1. Really needing to take a shit. 2. Wanting hit something until it dies, 3. Wanting to inflict failure on my liver and 4. Wanting a cuddle from my mum.  Those words of JMF3  rang in my ears night "it's not easy, but it's not complicated" and he's right. This is why this game can hurt ones pride and cause so much frustration. As when you try your hardest at something that is simple in nature, you feel like a complete c*** when you fail.
Anyway feeling a bit happier today. Had a drink last night, a shit this morning,  got a hug from my mum and I'm just off to kill something.

BTW big thanks for all the comments. Note to fellow traders putting "Emotional" in your blog title is like turning on the "trading bat signal" :-) 

Summary:  You got to laugh and I did. Better entry, fucked the exit by getting scared and using a discretionary exit not letting the market tell me when to get out. Laird Hamilton's quote sums it up: “If you just get out of your own way... it's amazing what will come to you”. And I got all over this trade ;-).
Good or bad, anything can happen so do not try and predict what the market is going to do. Let it tell you when to enter and tell you when to exit. 

1. Long on PB to prior PBL,  entry tick abv prior low (actually much late than that, my fault) Exit discretionary just lost my nerve with the TSLs (guess I was just desperate for some gains). R+1.7

Wednesday, 22 January 2014

An Emotional Day!

PL: R-1.6   £-29.45

 Summary:  Again I find myself in another hole and a quandary, what I really mean is "fuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckahhhhhhhhhhhhyoufuckingfuck".
 The best trade today (0) and yesterday for that matter occurred outside my session, so I'm going to revert back to starting at 0730GMT. I traded (1) long off an old ON level and got punished for it,  mea culpa ( i really should to be trading off recent levels). (2) was BW but the highs and lows made within it were still valid making the short at (3) from the prior RLH  a perfectly good short,  but I avoided it out of respect/fear of the BW. (4+5) are where the confusion came in and continue to try me. Price tested the PBLs from (1) and ticked above the prior inside bar, so I took a long entry at (4) assuming a potential "W". Then price reversed and ticked below the lows of the inside bar making (5) a SAR(stop and reverse) short. The only thing I can think to cancel out this over trading is to either stop trading inside bars or SARs, both of which I don't really want to do. But if I had to choose It would be to cut out the inside bar trades  because this would cut out (4) which was a poor trade, whereas cutting out SARs would eliminate (5) which was technically correct.  I'll do this at least for the time being and ensure the trigger remains at the level's test extreme low/high. (6) was more BW so avoided the long at 7 that tested the the PBLs of (1) and I should have bought on a tick above the highs prior to 7. Despite tempting, stop trading off old S/R levels, (trade the recent ones) wait for the test and trade off the test level it's more accurate! and for the time being avoid trading inside bars as both of these are knocking you out of holding good trades.


0. Missed Short off RL to prior highs
1.  Long on PB to ON low, entry 1 tick above prior bar, exit on BW formation. Prep, Patience, Discipline good R-0.3
2. BW , 3+ overlapping bars,  just reminded me of the agony yesterday, waiting this out...
3.  Avoided MAYBE INCORRECTLY this short from prior Hi as it developed in BW so dubious over it's strength.
4. Long on test of prior lows, entry one tick abv prior bar, exit on imd SAR Prep, Patience, Discipline good R-0.8
5. SAR Short (4),  entry 1 tick blw prior bar, EXIT discretionary not concentrating! Prep, Patience Good Discipline BAD R-0.4
6. BW , 3+ overlapping bars,  just reminded me of the agony yesterday, waiting this out...
7. Avoided because of the BW

Tuesday, 21 January 2014

READ and further thoughts on this AM

RE this AM:  I have come to the conclusion, maybe incorrectly but through as logical thinking that I can muster that...

If I have entered at a solid S/R level on good confirmation and price does not SAR immediately (NB a SAR must occur imd after the entry and preferably still be on the level, not off it), then I have likely got it right and it is more important for me to concentrate on (holding until price reverses at another S/R level) not getting shaken out, than taking fake secondary signals that will in no way be as strong as my initial entry and will likely just be shake outs

I must not buy on Hi wave candles

Stop Loss thoughts (from the past)
1. I will place ISL at the other extreme of the trigger bar + spread.
2. I will SAR if and only if  the reversal happens imd after entry and price is (preferrably) still in contact with the level. If price has detached from the level then only a close confirmation should be considered.
3. I will commence TSL when current bar closes beyond the trigger extreme +spread.
3.1 will Then TSL everytime price closes beyond the extreme of the prior with trade candle.
4. I will NEVER place a TSL on a NRB,doji or bars that gap.
5. I will Only exit discretionary if and when price meets another valid area of S/R and confirms a reversal.


Very Frustrated! Poor Prep

PL: R-2.2    £-45.51



Summary: Very frustrated as I'm getting shaken out of correct trades due to counter signals rather than fear. I want to yell and scream but more so I want to fix it!... Correctly got long at 1 as price tested prior low.  Then got what I thought was a  reversal signal at 2, in fact price didn't quite test the underside of this level making 2 an invalid short. 3 was a valid re-entry long but then 4 gave what I thought was a valid counter signal short after a test of the highs at 2,  but the high I was using was created in BW (pink ellipse) so was dubious at best as a level.  Price finally RL to the lows of a prior PB and made a valid short down 5 which I avoided, of course that would have got me BE. POOR PREP!
Got to...
1. Stop trading SARs because they are locking me out of good trades.
2. ask JMF3 for a def on how to use SARs correctly.
3. Label BW, give it a wide birth and treat its S/R levels with contempt.
4. check to make sure price has really reached a level before using it.
5. Once in a trade only exit your stop being hit or a counter trigger off another, valid level.  


Drew S&R levels and updated
1. Long off PB to prior lows with big volume HM. Good Prep and Patience, Poor Discipline (discretionary exit) R-0.5
NB: price enters BW (3 or more overlapping bars at least one a doji) should have avoided trading until this had cleared.
2. SAR short on RL back to S/R level and tick below prior low Poor Prep and Patience (price in BW),Good Discipline  R-0.8
3. SAR long on PB test of prior lows and tick abv prior high R-0.2
4. SAR Short on on RL testor prior highs and tick blw prior low R-0.8
5. Missed. Short off RL to prior high

Monday, 20 January 2014

Don't trade off old levels, Trade off updates of these levels

PL: R-0.6    £-12.14

Summary: An improvement from Thursday and Friday. Less trades and a smaller loss. Still some persisting issues.  Firstly I'm being too precise on my PTs. I'm going for R+2s but am not taking context (which is the most important thing) into account. In the long at (1) price nearly hit my PT which I had placed just above an area of R, of course price hit R then reversed and took out my stop so a profit of very nearly R+2 turned into R+1. I must not be so anal, I was not listening to price / context because I was projecting unrealistic hopes onto the market. Secondly a fair amount of my overtrading is coming from taking trades from old levels rather than the most recent ones.  3 was a good example of this.  Price tested an old R level from last week and I took a short off it. However I really should have updated the level to the most recent test of it and then shorted it at a test of this updated level. (5) was correct but (3) was wrong and because of this so was (4) making 2 poor trades out of one. Finally messed up 5 by taking a discretionary exit instead of TSL.
When setting PT's use R2 as a guide but base the actually off the nearest price context. Use most recent levels, forget old ones. They will only be tested and it is this updated level you should be trading from. Stop discretionary exiting! 


Prep:  drawing S&R levels and updating when tested.
Patience:  to wait for a level to be tested
Discipline to take the trade setup when confirmed, up date the level and TSL correctly.

1.  Long on test of prior PBL. Exit TSL got shook because too greedy. Prep, Patience, Discipline Good (could have been less greedy) R+1
2.  Highs I wanted, was going for R2 which was just above this level of R, should have been less greedy/precise and taken R1.8 at this level it was near enough!
3.  Short on test of old R and confirmation Prep, Patience,  Discipline Good R-0.8 Can't argue that I didn't trade my plan however I think the short at 5's test of recent R had a better chance of working out than that of the Old R test.  
4. SAR Long on failed Short at 3. Prep, Patience,  Discipline Good R-0.3 Again can't argue that I didn't trade my plan but I'm not convinced I should have traded 3 so 4s SAR would of course invalid too in that case.
5. Short on test of prior RLHs Prep& Patience Good,  Discipline POOR (discretionary exit) R-0.5 

Saturday, 18 January 2014

Weekly Summary 180114: A Spate of Over-trading

PL: R-6.69   £-144.08




Closed Trade P/L:-144.08Floating P/L:0.00Margin:0.00
Balance:2 075.04Equity:2 075.04Free Margin:2 075.04
Details:
Gross Profit:110.98Gross Loss:255.06Total Net Profit:-144.08
Profit Factor:0.44Expected Payoff:-4.80
Absolute Drawdown:144.08Maximal Drawdown:148.88 (6.69%)Relative Drawdown:6.69% (148.88)
Total Trades:30Short Positions (won %):16 (31.25%)Long Positions (won %):14 (14.29%)
Profit Trades (% of total):7 (23.33%)Loss trades (% of total):23 (76.67%)





SUMMARY
This week I was trading well ( for me anyway) up until Thursday and Friday when I fell into a spate of over-trading.
The positives are 1. I am spotting all the best trades and am taking almost all of them. 2. that I maintained good money management. I've had 22 losing trades but have limited my drawdown to only 6.7%, despite risking 1% per trade.
The negative of course was the over trading which also a had a hugely negative effect on my ability to hold my winners because I kept "getting reversal signals". However I think/hope I have identified the issues as...
1. Trading before the open ( in low volume chop)
2. Not having any candle reference,  I've been inadvertently entering on doji and trailing my stops on the wrong bars because of my use of bar charts not candles. Which has meant quite few entries and exits could have been better or were just plain wrong.
3. Lazy Prep.  Using a whole number as an S/R level despite price not having confirmed it. Also not updating an S/R level after it has been tested.  This resulted in me taking trades off S/R levels that didn't exist or that were past.

SUMMARY OF TRADES/TRADING (so many trades going to do this by day instead this week)
Monday: R+0.1. 4 Trades, all good entries. Some early exits. Missed a corker due to focus on SL/DL over S&R.
Tuesday: R-1.8.  3 Trades, all good entries.  missed a great trade because quit after 3 losses,  but these 3 trades did take place in the pre-session which I am now avoiding.  (might need to change quit point to a % rather than a number of trades?)
Wednesday: R+2: 4 Trades,  all good entries, -some early exits.
Thursday: R-3.6.  11Trades! over trading due to taking 5 trades before the open! early exits (7) Trailing SL too soon (on every bar instead of with trend bars only). not using current/updating S/R levels.
Friday: R-3.6 8 Trades!  over trading again due to... early exits (tracking doji) and poor prep

POSITIVES
1. I am either trading or at least spotting in realtime all the best trades.
2. My money management is remaining in place.

NEGATIVES
1. Trading before the open
2. Not having any candle reference,  I've been entering on and tracking doji as TSLs
3. Lazy Prep.  Using a whole number as an S/R level despite price not having confirmed it.

FIXES
1.  Don't commence trading until 0800GMT
2. Have a small candle window of the chart open at all times  so you're more aware of context. Or simply revert to candles.
3. Just got to keep working on Prep.  I now know to update an S/R level everytime it's tested and that even whole numbers need to prove themselves. For starters I can stop labeling whole numbers and I can stick to the horizontal lines and update them every time they tested.

ADDITIONS ( a few key lines that have popped into my head while trading this week)

"I'm trying to enter the day with no bias and just trade/flow with what the market gives/does, as I'm coming to the realization that even when trend trading there are times when I will be fighting the market (at reversals)".

"I do not need to know the specifics of what is going to happen each day. I just need to know that the market will create something everyday, and all I have to do is flow with it." 

"simplicity, prep and context beat convoluted, fancy and intricate"
SWINGS: NA


Friday, 17 January 2014

READ and Thoughts on Desire

I always thought that money was a by-product of success, which I think is accurate but I've come to the realization that success is also a by-product.  In trading anyway IMHO it is a by-product of ones ability to flow with the market. I've been thinking a lot about this over the week and came to the conclusion that...

I do not know the specifics of what is going to happen each day. I just need to know that the market will create something everyday, and all I have to do is flow with it. Flow must be my primary objective and precede all personal goals. I can inform the market of what my desires are but it will make no difference. I must realize that my goals will all be achieved in good time as a by-product of my ability to flow with price.
Anyway here's the read, both sessions ended up pretty choppy.

Don't Use Doji As Triggers, Make Even Whole Numbers Prove Themselves

PL:  R-3.61    £-69.19

Summary: Today's action just didn't go anywhere. While now obvious that it was in a range, during my session one could easily argue 2 and 8 were potential continuations and 7 a potential "W" (I'm trying to stay away from labelling price action but this was fairly clear). The good news is I got all the best trades (1,2,7,8), the bad news is I exited them early because I got a counter signals.
 As I was trading this session I kept asking myself: "How can I be trading a 5 min chart for 90 mins and be getting 8 trades (12 yesterday) while JMF3 trades a 1 min chart for 90 mins and gets no more than 8?!"
These counter signals are creating the over-trading, answer my question and are what I need to eliminate.
There were two issues today:
1. not using candles (3+4). Despite preferring the look of bars the long at 3 could and should have been avoided because the trigger was a doji (Al Brooks) and certainly shouldn't have been used as a TSL point either. But I missed it because bars are not as clearly defined as a candle... If I hadn't entered 3 I wouldn't have had to SAR on 4. Might introduce a small Candle window to my screen so I have a clearer view of what's going on.
2. using 1.36 as a S/R level (5&6)... For no other reason than it was a whole number. Price had confirmed areas near it but it was not a confirmed area of S/R.... but I insisted on using it as one. 
Might have scraped a BE without these errors, or at least a smaller loss!
So main issue was really Prep... Failure to prep doji and using a lazy S/R level (1.36).



LHs, LLs = down trend got to wait for prior PB to be tested before REV.
1. Buy off test 2nd test of prior low, draw new S line. Prep good, Patience good,  Discipline good (though did want to scalp out some profit) R+0.4 GOOD TRADE
2. Sell on test of RLH, draw new R line. R-0.5 GOOD TRADE, BAD EXIT (doji TSL)
3. SAR Long on imd  REV (2 likely a shake out), draw new S line R-0.8 Shouldn't have exited 2 (doji TSL) Poor Prep!
4. SAR Short on imd REV (3 likely a shake out),  draw new R line. R+0.1 Shouldn't have exited 2 (doji TSL) Poor Prep!
5. Long on of 1.36 test (should have been 1 lows) and REV,  draw new S line. R-0.8 Shouldn't have used 1.36 as a S/R line , it hadn't been confirmed as one! Poor Prep
6. SAR Short on imd REV (5 likely a shake out),  draw new R line. R-0.6  Shouldn't have used 1.36 as a S/R line , it hadn't been confirmed as one! Poor Prep
7. Long on test of most recent S line (5). draw new S line. R-0.3
8. Short on test of (4) RLH ,  draw new R Line. R-0.9 Prep Good , Patience Good,  Discipline Good, hard luck getting stopped.

Thursday, 16 January 2014

READ and S&R Thoughts


Trying to heed to words of several people /blogs I read. To Paraphase "simplicity, prep and context beat convoluted, fancy and intricate"  I think I lost sight of that this morning  particularly updating my prep (S/R levels).
To surmise....

  • I need to mark all RLHs
  • I need to mark all PBLs
  • When price reaches an S/R line.  I can expect 1. a bounce off it. 2. a pause and continuation (likely a SAR). 3. a straight BO/BD (that at some point price will likely come back to test/PC). 4. that I will have to update the S/R level after the test.
  • In an uptrend (HHs/HLs)price will be making the new highs, and these will have to be tested before it reverses.  The with trend PBs will occur at previously passed S/R levels.
  • In an downtrend (LLs/LHs) price will be making the new lows, and these will have to be tested before it reverses.  The with trend RLs will occur at previously passed S/R levels.
  • All I have to do is wait patiently for the levels to be tested before taking a trade. 
  • Then be disciplined enough to take every trade that is triggered AND update the S/R level!



LLsLHs= down trend =  only reverse on test of most recent low
a. Long off touch of prior low and draw new lows
b. Short off touch of PC and draw new highs
c. Long off deep test of prior low and 1.36,  and draw new lows
d. short off test of prior RLH
e. Long on SAR of (d),  draw PBLs
f. HH/HL =  uptrend =  only reverse on test of most recent high
g. Short off test of most recent high (d) draw new highs

Dug myself a crater I couldn't climb out of but surprisingly upbeat?!

PL: R-3.6     £-79.69

Summary: Despite acknowledging that I should start at/on 0800GMT yesterday, I started prep early out of habit, then saw trade(1) and worried it might be "the one". This triggered a load of pre-market/low volume and poor patience overtrading (1-5) I disguised as SAR. Actually I was entering (2,4,5)  in "thin air" with no S/R reason (I must get short after a touch of R and long after a touch of S, even on SARs). .... A big volume spike at 0715GMT got me fearful volume had stepped in BUT this was a complete overreaction triggered by Mr Greed and Mr Fear (of missing out). The UK and EU haven't changed their opening times!
Trade (6) should have been my first trade and I gave up early, seeing but avoiding trade 12 - this of course made 2%. In general I could hold on to winners longer but I'm not going to rush to fix this,  because that will only mean adding "ifs and buts" to my plan which would be detrimental... The fact is IF I had just traded ALL the trades after 8am I'd be up 1.6% which I'd be very happy with.
I am not  upset about today's results.  It can be explained away by the pre-session trading and lack of patience there in. I did spot and enter all of the best trades (6-12) with the exception of 12 that I just failed to enter. GOT TO KEEP WORKING PREP, PATIENCE AND DISCIPLINE GEORGE!


Prep:  drew S&R from PBL, RLH, Ranges and rng MPs.
Trades 1-5 = Disaster,  I was trading before the open on low volume and got whipsawed like lumber. I recognized this after (1) but apparently I'm a masochist! 
1.  Buy on touch of Rng hi/PC.  Prep good,  Patience POOR ,  Discipline good. R-0.4
2.  SAR Short on tick blw 1. Prep POOR,  Patience POOR,  Discipline good. R-0.8
3. SAR Long on tick abv 1. Prep good,  Patience POOR,  Discipline good. R-0.4
4+5.  SAR Short on tick blw 1. Prep POOR,  Patience POOR,  Discipline good. R-0.8 (should have been less (0.5) I accidentally added a position to this)
6. SAR Long on 2nd test (could be a REV) of Rng low/PC tick   Prep good,  Patience good ,  Discipline good. R-0.3
7.  Short at PC Prep good,  Patience good ,  Discipline good. R-0.1 (NB had I tracked only the bearish bar highs as my TSL i would have stayed in this)
8. SAR Long at PC/ Rng low Prep POOR (needed to update S),  Patience good ,  Discipline good. R-0.1
9. SAR Short on tick blw prior bar. Prep good,  Patience Good ,  Discipline good. R+0.3
10. SAR Long at 1.36 Prep good,  Patience Good ,  Discipline good. R+0.3
11.  SAR short at test of Rng high Prep good,  Patience Good ,  Discipline good. R-0.8
12. (Missed) SAR Long (R+2) 

Wednesday, 15 January 2014

PM READ and Volume Observation


Okay TBH I didn't do this in real-time,  I had a long chat with the missus instead.  Anyway tried to be as honest as possible. Still worried about potential over trading as there were a ton of triggered trades today, however outside of my sessions....
What I noticed was that these constant SAR (stop and reverse) trades took place mainly between my sessions and when the market had "relatively" low volume... Resulting in me confirming that my session times are correct and that I could even start my AM session closer to 0800GMT as this is when the 1st profitable trade usually takes place and is when volume pipes up.  My PM session start time 1330GMT is perfect... Admittedly I'll still need some warm up time to get in gear.  But I'm thinking 0745GMT is probably an acceptable prep time and 0800GMT an acceptable trade time for the AM (LON) session. 1315GMT and 1330 respectively for the PM (US) session.

Here is chart of the volume spikes (Magenta Ellipses) pinging at 0800GMT and 1330GMT...

Taking Every Trade = A Better Day

PL: R+2      £+41.57    

Particularly happy I kept losses small and let profits run (could have done better with this but a step in the right direction).

Summary:  Much better day today because I traded every trade the market gave me. Shame I missed (2) I was looking up where to buy a book, classic case of boredom creeping in while waiting for price to develop. Still struggling with discipline, to be precise the ability to hold onto a profitable trade, bar (7) was utter torture and shook me out for R+2 on trade (6). Prep Good, Patience (not letting the mind drift when waiting for PA to develop) and in-(profitable)trade Discipline need work/more effort.


Prep: horizontal lines from RLHs and PBLs, no bias, just watching context.
1. missed the long here as it was "pre-session".
2. missed the short at prior RLH, although prepared for it was preoccupied with something else (errh!)
3. long on touch of prior PBL and reversal, Prep good, Patience good,  Discipline good. R-0.5
NB price had detached from MP prior to 3,Q does this confirm MP broken/PC?
4. SAR short on failed 3 long at MP  Prep good, Patience good,  Discipline Poor (discretionary exit)R+1.1
5. Long off S from 100114 Prep good, Patience good,  Discipline goodR-0.4
NB price had again detached from PBL and range low prior to 5,Q does this confirm PBL broken/PC?
6. SAR, short on RL to PBL and range low. Prep good, Patience good,  Discipline Poor (discretionary exit)R+1.8
7. holding through this bar was a complete C*^!,  watching a paper profit of R2 diminish to R1.5
Finishing early as hit 2% profit.

Tuesday, 14 January 2014

READ and thoughts

It's my birthday today and I've felt rather pensive. I'm not depressed, just thoughtful. I think this morning's trading added to the thoughtfulness. After my initial AM post  I had all these plans to go over all my trades from the past week and see how they would have worked out trading tick vs close confirmation but I haven't done any of it and probably wont. I know tick is better than the close and I know price context is better than tick (but that's still a way off for me). So what's the point? I don't actually know I've done all day. pfffh.

Today was the best I have ever traded (until I let emotions take over), it's ironic that despite flowing with the market better than I ever have I have a negative a PL to show for it. Maybe it's not ironic, it may have been my best trading (flow) but it wasn't my best effort,  I could have preserved and should have.

Winston Churchill “Sometimes it is not enough to do our best; we must do what is required”.

Sod it, I'm gonna have drink...  that's required!

NB some Q's in the last post if anyones got time to have a look I'd be v grateful. Worried I was overtrading the LON session today etc...

Here's the read. I'm trying to trade between S&R levels. PBL (pullback lows) RLH (Rally highs) and PC (Polarity Changes /  you know when S becomes R and vis versa). When an area is broken I must expect the next level to be hit before price will be able to make a valid reversal attempt so I must hold to that level (tricky emotionally).

Sabotaged Myself... Have Some Questions

PL: R-1.8    £-40.27

Summary: Actually trying less prep today in-terms of identifying trend direction. The reason for this is that I feel I got too caught up with trend trading rather than "context" trading yesterday. I was concentrating on the direction of the Demand/Supply line rather than the proximity of price to S&R and what it was doing there. I'm trying to enter the day with no bias and just trade/flow with what the market gives/does, as I'm coming to the realization that even when trend trading there are times when I will be fighting the market (at reversals).

Despite the poor PL I actually felt like I flowed with the market better than ever. After 3 losses in a row AND seeing (4)! I thought I had better re-access,  sod's law had I taken it I would have got my BE winner and some! Despite it feeling like I was getting it all wrong, I got myself (fear)! Seeing price reach 1.37 made me want to vomit out of my ass.
Today is the first day where I feel that my Prep, Patience and Discipline were correct in every trade I took, With the obvious exception of 4 which I didn't take.

Qs
1. Was I right to take all the trades I did. I got fearful that with a loss approaching 2% I might not make it up in one trade (TBH what I said about fear sounds wrong, I should do what the market tells me not my emotions, so I probably was right to take the trades I did, the only mistake I made was not taking 4)?
2. Was I over-trading in 1-3 (it felt like I was but I was definitely flowing with the market when I did)?
3. Was there a way I could have reduced the trades I took (I couldn't help but notice( despite knowing this is wrong that) had I used the close abv/blw prior high /low instead of a tick I would have only had to take trade (4))?
4.Was actually I trading correctly and should I have just continued to trade with the market?


1. Short on RL to PC Good Prep, Good Patience, Good Discipline. R-0.7
2. SAR Long when price PB to PC and bounces. Good Prep, Good Patience, Good Discipline R-0.5
3. SAR Short when price failed to continue up. R-0.6
Three losses in a row =  quit for day.
4.  SAR Long when price failed to continue down.

Monday, 13 January 2014

READ Practice

From this morning's live session I felt that I had too much bias on DLs and SLs over S&R /  price context. Been reading a lot of LevelHeadedTrading posts over the weekend and in this read tried to incorporate some of his methods. Notably the using the midpoint of a range as another S/R level. Lots more work to do, lots more that could be said but this covers the gist of it. I'm pretty tired from the morning session, I'm almost certain if I tried to delve deeper I wouldn't remain coherent ( a feeling trading has a particular knack of delivering to me ;-))



1. $ Breaks down MP, short retracement
2.  SAR on entry bar's strong rejection below this level
3. short on RL to prior RL high
4. short RL to prior PBL into RNG low.
5. Buy off lower RNGs MP
6. Short prior RNGs Low (current RNG hi)

Reactions Slow, But Got More Fluid

PL: R+0.1   £+3.50

Summary: Dug myself a hole but managed to climb out of it. I followed my prep guide but fear it has too great a bias on Supply and Demand lines rather than S&R lines which made me slow to react to moves.  Waiting for a DL to break then test the last rally high takes a long time as opposed to shorting a failure at R. Not that unhappy with the trades I took, more disappointment with missing (5). Trade 3 was just plain wrong, but at least I realised this and exited early. 4 was a good entry but in-trade I managed poorly (late) exiting on a TSL rather than PA.  7 was a great trade.  8 I exited early as my session was coming to an end I wanted to end BE, turned out to be the best thing to do but the correct exit would have been 5 bars later. Patience is improving but still needs work, just like my Prep and Discipline. 

Green arrows = Entries,  Red arrows =  Exits

Series of LHs and fanned SLs =  initial bias short
1. (Missed) Acute TLB. bias stays Short but prepared for reversal at or before prior PBL.
2. (Missed) HL long after TLB =  Long. (out of session hours and missed SLB at 1).
NB:  Bias changes to long as price breaks TL and makes HL =  only trade long and hold through PBs
3. Short off prior RLHs, exited early on realization of missing TLB at (1)! Poor Prep, R-0.5
4. Long off TL,and PB to prior RLH. Exit TSL (should have been close at tick below prior low).  Good Prep, Good Patience, Poor Discipline R-0.4
5.  Possible SAR  (stop and reverse a la Level Headed Trading?)
6. TLB bias stays long but prepared for reversal at or before prior RLH.
7. Long off rejection of Friday  range lows. Prep, patience, discipline good R-0.1
8. Short off rejection at prior PBLs, Prep, patience good. discipline poor R-0.1R+1.2



Saturday, 11 January 2014

Weekly Summary 110114 First Break Even Week

Intraday Weekly PL: R-0.25    £-6.04
Summary:



Closed Trade P/L:-6.04


Balance:2 219.12



Details:
Gross Profit:54.70Gross Loss:60.74Total Net Profit:-6.04
Profit Factor:0.90Expected Payoff:-1.01
Absolute Drawdown:54.72Maximal Drawdown:54.72 (2.46%)Relative Drawdown:2.46% (54.72)
Total Trades:6Short Positions (won %):2 (50.00%)Long Positions (won %):4 (25.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):2 (33.33%)Loss trades (% of total):4 (66.67%)
Largestprofit trade:40.30loss trade:-25.92
Averageprofit trade:27.35loss trade:-15.19


SUMMARY
As you can see I've called this week BE (I hope quarter of a percent off BE is near enough). This is the first BE week since the beginning of this blog so I'm pretty happy but obviously have a lot of work to do.
The week was cut short because I couldn't trade on Monday due to family commitments. Despite only winning 2 out my six trades, four of the trades were essentially good but I screwed 2 of them up with my in trade discipline (discretionary exits, or fighting price action).  The 2 poor trades (due to entries) and my lack of trades Friday were caused entirely by poor price prep (getting the direction wrong) and patience (pre-empting a PB rather than waiting for it). Got to tidy up my Prep method and keep working on my Prep, Patience and Discipline but with a bias on Prep. Focusing on how best to execute the next piece of PA is far more important than how it makes me feel!

SUMMARY OF TRADES/TRADING
1. poor prep( missing BW) poor patience (not waiting for price to touch S) =  poor trade
2. good prep , good patience, poor disicipline (discretionary early exit) =  essentially a good trade.
3. a fuck up from not not prepping correctly and getting flustered =  poor trade.
4. Good Prep, Good Patience,  Poor discipline (discetionary early exit) =  essentially a good trade.
5. Good prep, good patience,  Poor discipline (discretionary late exit due to fighting market) =  essentially a good trade.
6. Good Prep, Good Patience, Okay Discipline (still discretionary exit but held longer) = essentially a good trade.
Friday:  was a balls up (no trades) because of poor prep.  Luckily I didn't take any trades as would likell have had poor entries.

POSTIVES
1. First BE week
2. More good trades than bad trades

NEGATIVES
1. Poor prep/patience  =  poor entries thus losing trades
2. Poor  Discipline = discretionary early exits due to fear ( not reading price action)
3. Poor Discipline = discretionary late exits due to fighting the market ( not reading price action)

FIXES
1. Need to tidy up my Price Prep method.  I am basically using an amalgamation of Al Brooks and Level Headed Trading method and my guides a little off hence confusion sometimes.  This is the obvious first step to clearing the fuzz.
2&3.  Were both due to poor price prep once in the trade. One fearful early exit because I had not acknowedged that price had reversed so took a scalper loss, rather than holding for a swing profit.  The other was me holding through what should have been a scalpers profit for a swing profit that was never going to happen. Both occurred because I was concentrating on my emotions (fear and gutting it out) rather than PA,  I must focus on PA and nothing else!

ADDITIONS
Just would like to emphasize to myself and have on record that I know all that matters is price action and it's context. Your feeling are irrelivant George, you must trade PA not your emotions to be successful and the proof of that is above.

SWINGS: NA

Friday, 10 January 2014

READ: Friday Session

Won't bore myself with a wordy post after this morning's essay.  Basically just want to show that I probably would have had a better time with bars instead of candles.

aqua squares where price PB/RL to prior S/R level and might offer an entry
Red arrows potential trades
?  HTF do I get into this up move with my current idea? simply a TLB HL reversal entry?




No Trades! For Valid Reasons?...

PL: R0    £0

Summary:  Interestingly when I finished this AM session I thought it might have been some of my best trading, with some perspective it then felt like some of my worse. The reality is it was probably somewhere in the middle... I'm going to venture to say that it was probably some of my better trading.  The LON open sessions were choppy, big and angry, unlike the nice orderly sessions of the JAP close. I would ordinarily have traded it and got stopped out a lot so I probably did well to avoid it. BTW Any opinions I'd like to hear (as you can see below it's turned me schizophrenic for a while)...The question I found myself asking was: If individual sessions are choppy but they are respecting S&R, are the trades viable despite the far larger risk they require? A: I guess to me the risk was not worth it, to someone else it might have been a different story.

Ramblings this session created...
A series of HLs so initially thinking long (even after the TLB). Then price puts in a LL- LH  = making initial bias short and giving an imperfect LH short because it didn't meet a prior level of S/R at 1 (this i was right to avoid). Price then returned into (what was the area of ) a small but long overnight range (grey dashed hrz lines) my bias remained short, expecting a test of 1.36. Don't know if I put too much weight on this past and finished ON range? Price was clearly trending up on the JAP close and down in the LON open should I have traded the trend? was I making excuses? The candles certainly did little to inspire confidence with big overlapping trend bars and shadows. I think I was probably correct but maybe I could have reacted quicker when the average bar size started to reduce and I might have taken trade 6.  
Psychology:  Although the price action looked tempting the grey range was only 10 pips and my brokers spread is 1.5 pips making me doubt potentially good looking trades (in reality this ON range had passed!). It seemed reasonable to sit out the AM chop given several areas of BW but I'm aware that I might have been concentrating on preserving capital rather than reading price action which I know is incorrect. I also know that getting a breakeven week by simply avoiding trades for fear of losing my gains is outcome bias and is a pyrrhic victory. But at the time and because I made a case for it (perhaps because I was focusing on making excuses to not trade?!) I believed sitting out the AM action was correct, here's my chart and my reasons... Looking a couple of hours later 4 and 6 were the only possible trades but 4 was within BW and the middle of a small range. 6 came just after BW so threw me off. But both made nice RLs to R so were perfectly good shorts. Again if I'd stuck to bars not candles I might have seen this clearer!



TLB-LL-LH =  initial bias short but...
1. Imperfect LH as price did not meet prior level of S/R
2. Imperfect PB long entry as trigger was a hiwave doji/hammer (which would have been stopped out).
NB I can see that price is trending down (to 1.36 likely) but I'm not liking the way in which it's doing so (the hi wave candles and big trend bar in both directions)
3. BW, got to avoid all the overlapping bars...  going for a walk (0800-0830)....
4. More BW and a potential short off prior hi but for only a potential 1:1 as 1.36 just below (NB my brokers spread is 1.5 pips) and with the increased BW chop risk not worth it.
5. More BW! have to wait for this to clear...
NB there was a long entry at the botom of the range but it was in BW and the trigger was a doji HM so no good.
6. Q:  did BW clear here because bodies stopped overlapping or do I need to wait for the entire area to clear?
7. potential short off RL to prior low but BW not cleared (maybe it was?), stuck in ON range and 1.36 just below?

Thursday, 9 January 2014

READ: PM/US session and some Qs!

TBH not all of this traded in realtime today but God this action made me think.

As suggested I've been looking at the session in bars not candles and prefer the look of it.  It makes price flow evenly as the "sessions" are less obvious so price action becomes one not 150 individual little things. However I'm still technically using candle entries so am swapping between views...

It's interesting when reading Al Brooks "Reading price action ...." he says (and I paraphrase because I'm too lazy to find it) "not to worry about data and to just trade the price action that it creates because it is perfectly valid" and that is precisely what happened this PM.  US initial jobless came out BTE and the dollar rocketed and price action would have got me in on the move.

I'm using a two higher (lower) closes abv/blw a supply or demand line to confirm it as broken.. and a one close as it is still intact (any readers thoughts on this I want to hear please) So...

 TBH I would probably have walked away after the gain from 3. BUT technically I should be able to continue trading this. A few rhetorical Qs that I would actually like answered if anyones got time...
Should I always look for a reversal on a spike?
Should I continue to trade between levels that have been broken to hell? 
Should I simply quit after a large move?




2. was a long because if you look carefully 1 marks 2 bullish closes above the supply line.
3.  was a perfectly valid short as it hit the supply line from the London session and reversed down from there  after only one close above it (despite there being no TLB this was a spike top)... R+5.5
NB as price was moving down I started mapping demand lines from yesterday to help me find the next possible entry (is this correct?)
4&5. spike bottomed after validating a demand line from yesterday putting in reversals so both were long entries.
NB? Once price reversed at the demand level in 4&5 I removed the other demand levels I drew in as a guide (4 dark pinkish lines) as took this as the market confirming what was and wasn't relevant.
6.  was a short off the short term supply level between 4&5,
7&8. were longs off PBs to this supply (now demand) level 

Easier Entries, Poor In-Trade Prep

PL: R+1.7    £+34.28

Summary:  Another easy start. First trade I got in a little early... Despite price meeting the prior RLH the doji trigger should have clued me in to waiting a little longer,  c'est la vie, it was still "technically" correct. The exit on trade 1 was a disaster,  I was basically concentrating so much on stubbornly sitting through the pain of a PB/not getting shaken out I stopped prepping/reading what price action was doing (hitting an area of supply/1.36 and reversing?!). This stubbornness lead to the missing of the possible CT short at 2 (however as there was no TLB yet it would not have been technically correct). But I finished with a nice with trend trade at 3, although with a discretionary exit(1:2). This was in no small part due to the lingering feelings left over from trade 1 where I felt I had been pushing my luck. But this was not the case at all as price was still far away from meeting the next area of supply and so holding would have been the correct action (at least I let some run).
JMF3: "It's not easy , but it's not complicated" springs to mind... What I am doing is not complicated but once in a trade (despite there not being!) it feels as if I have to juggle a few plates. This is because my emotions spring up (the metaphorical second plate) that take my attention away from the the only plate that matters "focus on price action and the context it's in". My main issue today was in-trade-discipline, not continuing to prep/read price action when in a trade. 

Green Arrows Entries,  Red Arrows Exits.


Series of HLs =  initial bias Long, expecting at least a touch of 1.36
1.  Long on PB to prior RL high. Entered on doji, could/should have entered or added to position when 1st PB deepened (at least I didn't get shaken out). Exit late as was concentrating so hard on not getting shaken out of PB around 1.36 I stopped reading/prepping price? Good Initial Prep, Okay Patience, Good Discipline, Poor In Trade Prep,  R-0.3
2.  Missed this "obvious" exit of 1 at 1.36 as I was concentrating so hard on not getting shaken out of a PB I stopped reading/prepping price?! NB this was not a short opportunity as there was no TLB.
3. Long on PB to prior PBL.  Entry:  MO, Exit discretionary 1:2.  Good initial Prep, Good Patience, Poor In Trade Prep,  R+1.9

Wednesday, 8 January 2014

READ: Support and Resistance instead of TLs

This a reading practice post...

I noticed as I was trading this AM that just trading between S&R seemed simpler and did actually help the PL in terms of avoiding a trade that hadn't reproached a prior S/R level. I can't pretend to have witnessed the trades that occurred from 1135 - 1620 in realtime and I am no longer foolish enough to say "but they look easy enough" but from 0930-1135 and 16.20-1820 I hand on heart acknowledged all the green arrows in real time. I missed however the Aqua arrows but can subsequently see why they are trades. 

This is something that ScalpingtheStretch/LevelHeadedTrading has been patiently telling me for months. I guess my head and eyes needed to catch up with the information. Anywhoo, like he says "less focus on candles and more focus on context" is obviously the way I need to go. And to be honest made for a far more enjoyable experience. 


Bias on candles instead of Price Action

PL: R +0.66   £+14.40

Summary: Generally this was an easier day in terms of direction than yesterday... Having said that I did feel less rusty, spotting BW first thing and frustratingly acknowledging the potential short at 2 but not taking it as it was not "technically" a LH, this of course then went all the way to test 1.36 (Duh!). Gladly I started to respect price action over candles from this point so managed to avoid the short at 4 and take the short at 6 instead that I entered on a trailing Buy Stop. This is the first time ever I've trailed my entry stop, so pretty happy with that. But exited on touch of 1.36 which was a discretionary exit.  Good Prep,  Good Patience,  Poor in trade Discipline.



Series of LHs =  initial bias short
1. BW (barbwire), waiting this out...
2. Felt like a short trade off the small RL back to demand/support after its BD (Polarity Change). But I was focusing too much on the candles (it wasn't technically a LH) than on price action itself (as JMF3 warned me about), I guess at least I saw it could be a trade,  shame.
3. As DWTLs get more acute and the touch of 1.36, perhaps unwisely I'm starting to pre-empt a reversal despite no TLB.
4. Was technically a LH short,  but I avoided it as price action had not RL to a RLH or PBL and it's proximity to 1.36.
5. TLB,  bias technically remains short. But shows some bullish strength.
6. Short off prior RLHs on a trailing buy stop. Discretionary exit at 1.36. Prep & Patience good, Poor Discipline R 0.66