PL: -0.7 (-18.76) CAP £2383.03
Trades:
A. HSL, couldn't takes as 252EMA just below so RRR less than 1:1
B. HSL, couldn't takes as 252EMA just below so RRR less than 1:1
C. HSL, couldn't takes as 252EMA just below so RRR less than 1:1
D. OBS: feels like there's a reversal trade here. price trends down , tests 252, then RL to 50SMA where a HSL works out , note that the triggers real body touched the 50SMA.
1. Data Trade (-0.7), exit 8SMA, fault should have been CAPH. Felt like I was being the dumb money trading into D1 21EMA (I was).
2. HSL (0), realized my mistake and managed to get out break even (price needed to RL to 252)
E. REV to & thru 252 (+0.9), missed this I got in such a tisswoss over trades 1&2 I gave up for the day.
Notes:
M1 strategy: 8/21/50 must be in alignment: buy on LSH @ 21/50, sell on HSL @21/50. ISL conf + 2pips / TSL / exit: FTMNH - ATMNL. IPT 1:2 / S/R
OR Use 221/50 as direction, price must PB/RL to at least the 21EMA, but not touch the 50SMA. use LSH / HSL as entry, ISL trigger high, IPT
Summary: price flirting around 252EMA, plus jobs in the PM made the day quite draining for me, a lot of concentration and no reward. I must note here that because there are so few trades that are trade-able my reaction to losses when they occur is over the top (but at least I'm aware of this). The data trade is pissing me off, I feel like I should be fading these moves (NFP's last friday see 060913 post) instead of going with them but I don't know how to trade them correctly ie stop loss, entry , target. This is something I need to work on (having said that I have been getting a lot of help from JMF3 and without his help I doubt I would have had the thought to fade, so this is progress (thank you)). Trade 2 I was damn lucky with to get out BE but this then ruined my confidence in my ability to follow my guide so I quit early and missed trade E ( I'm being too hard on myself). If I'd had E I'd be slightly up for the day. With the current 30- 40 pip ranges
over the last 2 days I've been drilling down to the M1 to see if I can get setups which won't be as affected by the RRR the M5 setups currently are, I can't see anything obvious using the close of a session as confirmation yet but will continue to look ( a scalping method is looking very appealing at the moment!). Ultimately though my strategy performed well, while I did not because I didn't follow it.
As I mentioned, I try to believe in the trend until it proves me wrong, so I shorted the pullback after the Unemployment Claims, and added to it, and had to start my day with a loss. I ultimately made it back, but just stuck with what I normally do. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I like to see after a large bar is the next one to go past it. Even if both the large bar and the following one have wicks on them, if price continues past the bar, I know that most likely the trend won't immediately be reversing and I can trade at least a couple pullbacks.
But I know that feeling trading into those spikes - "oh man, I'm one of the suckers!" - I just have to laugh now though - it happens. You do something that usually works for you and just know that sometimes it won't work, and then you manage it if you have to. We aren't the only ones short.
Plus, usually when I get caught in a trade like that, I know that if the trend follows through with a 180 degree change, that I can expect good movement the other way - the big money has shown their hand and while I got caught once, I now know where they are going and will play along and get it back.
Also - I forgot to push the damn publish button on my post this morning so my blog's not up, otherwise you can see me getting suckered in by those f**kers too ;)
ReplyDeleteThanks so much for the comments, not only are they insightful they cheered me up too. Really like the "bar passing large bar" I can see how that would show some strength, I hadn't thought of it that way before, I'm whacking that into my notes (thanks).
ReplyDeleteThe note on the big money showing their hand is great, not only a valid point but psychological it kind of makes a negative out of a positive, again another thing to add to the notes (thank you).