PM READ and Volume Observation

Okay TBH I didn't do this in real-time,  I had a long chat with the missus instead.  Anyway tried to be as honest as possible. Still worried about potential over trading as there were a ton of triggered trades today, however outside of my sessions....
What I noticed was that these constant SAR (stop and reverse) trades took place mainly between my sessions and when the market had "relatively" low volume... Resulting in me confirming that my session times are correct and that I could even start my AM session closer to 0800GMT as this is when the 1st profitable trade usually takes place and is when volume pipes up.  My PM session start time 1330GMT is perfect... Admittedly I'll still need some warm up time to get in gear.  But I'm thinking 0745GMT is probably an acceptable prep time and 0800GMT an acceptable trade time for the AM (LON) session. 1315GMT and 1330 respectively for the PM (US) session.

Here is chart of the volume spikes (Magenta Ellipses) pinging at 0800GMT and 1330GMT...

Taking Every Trade = A Better Day

PL: R+2      £+41.57    

Particularly happy I kept losses small and let profits run (could have done better with this but a step in the right direction).

Summary:  Much better day today because I traded every trade the market gave me. Shame I missed (2) I was looking up where to buy a book, classic case of boredom creeping in while waiting for price to develop. Still struggling with discipline, to be precise the ability to hold onto a profitable trade, bar (7) was utter torture and shook me out for R+2 on trade (6). Prep Good, Patience (not letting the mind drift when waiting for PA to develop) and in-(profitable)trade Discipline need work/more effort.

Prep: horizontal lines from RLHs and PBLs, no bias, just watching context.
1. missed the long here as it was "pre-session".
2. missed the short at prior RLH, although prepared for it was preoccupied with something else (errh!)
3. long on touch of prior PBL and reversal, Prep good, Patience good,  Discipline good. R-0.5
NB price had detached from MP prior to 3,Q does this confirm MP broken/PC?
4. SAR short on failed 3 long at MP  Prep good, Patience good,  Discipline Poor (discretionary exit). R+1.1
5. Long off S from 100114 Prep good, Patience good,  Discipline good. R-0.4
NB price had again detached from PBL and range low prior to 5,Q does this confirm PBL broken/PC?
6. SAR, short on RL to PBL and range low. Prep good, Patience good,  Discipline Poor (discretionary exit). R+1.8
7. holding through this bar was a complete C*^!,  watching a paper profit of R2 diminish to R1.5
Finishing early as hit 2% profit.

READ and thoughts

It's my birthday today and I've felt rather pensive. I'm not depressed, just thoughtful. I think this morning's trading added to the thoughtfulness. After my initial AM post  I had all these plans to go over all my trades from the past week and see how they would have worked out trading tick vs close confirmation but I haven't done any of it and probably wont. I know tick is better than the close and I know price context is better than tick (but that's still a way off for me). So what's the point? I don't actually know I've done all day. pfffh.

Today was the best I have ever traded (until I let emotions take over), it's ironic that despite flowing with the market better than I ever have I have a negative a PL to show for it. Maybe it's not ironic, it may have been my best trading (flow) but it wasn't my best effort,  I could have preserved and should have.

Winston Churchill “Sometimes it is not enough to do our best; we must do what is required”.

Sod it, I'm gonna have drink...  that's required!

NB some Q's in the last post if anyones got time to have a look I'd be v grateful. Worried I was overtrading the LON session today etc...

Here's the read. I'm trying to trade between S&R levels. PBL (pullback lows) RLH (Rally highs) and PC (Polarity Changes /  you know when S becomes R and vis versa). When an area is broken I must expect the next level to be hit before price will be able to make a valid reversal attempt so I must hold to that level (tricky emotionally).

Sabotaged Myself... Have Some Questions

PL: R-1.8    £-40.27

Summary: Actually trying less prep today in-terms of identifying trend direction. The reason for this is that I feel I got too caught up with trend trading rather than "context" trading yesterday. I was concentrating on the direction of the Demand/Supply line rather than the proximity of price to S&R and what it was doing there. I'm trying to enter the day with no bias and just trade/flow with what the market gives/does, as I'm coming to the realization that even when trend trading there are times when I will be fighting the market (at reversals).

Despite the poor PL I actually felt like I flowed with the market better than ever. After 3 losses in a row AND seeing (4)! I thought I had better re-access,  sod's law had I taken it I would have got my BE winner and some! Despite it feeling like I was getting it all wrong, I got myself (fear)! Seeing price reach 1.37 made me want to vomit out of my ass.
Today is the first day where I feel that my Prep, Patience and Discipline were correct in every trade I took, With the obvious exception of 4 which I didn't take.

Qs
1. Was I right to take all the trades I did. I got fearful that with a loss approaching 2% I might not make it up in one trade (TBH what I said about fear sounds wrong, I should do what the market tells me not my emotions, so I probably was right to take the trades I did, the only mistake I made was not taking 4)?
2. Was I over-trading in 1-3 (it felt like I was but I was definitely flowing with the market when I did)?
3. Was there a way I could have reduced the trades I took (I couldn't help but notice( despite knowing this is wrong that) had I used the close abv/blw prior high /low instead of a tick I would have only had to take trade (4))?
4.Was actually I trading correctly and should I have just continued to trade with the market?

1. Short on RL to PC Good Prep, Good Patience, Good Discipline. R-0.7
2. SAR Long when price PB to PC and bounces. Good Prep, Good Patience, Good Discipline R-0.5
3. SAR Short when price failed to continue up. R-0.6
Three losses in a row =  quit for day.
4.  SAR Long when price failed to continue down.

READ Practice

From this morning's live session I felt that I had too much bias on DLs and SLs over S&R /  price context. Been reading a lot of LevelHeadedTrading posts over the weekend and in this read tried to incorporate some of his methods. Notably the using the midpoint of a range as another S/R level. Lots more work to do, lots more that could be said but this covers the gist of it. I'm pretty tired from the morning session, I'm almost certain if I tried to delve deeper I wouldn't remain coherent ( a feeling trading has a particular knack of delivering to me ;-))

1. $ Breaks down MP, short retracement
2.  SAR on entry bar's strong rejection below this level
3. short on RL to prior RL high
4. short RL to prior PBL into RNG low.
5. Buy off lower RNGs MP
6. Short prior RNGs Low (current RNG hi)

Reactions Slow, But Got More Fluid

PL: R+0.1   £+3.50

Summary: Dug myself a hole but managed to climb out of it. I followed my prep guide but fear it has too great a bias on Supply and Demand lines rather than S&R lines which made me slow to react to moves.  Waiting for a DL to break then test the last rally high takes a long time as opposed to shorting a failure at R. Not that unhappy with the trades I took, more disappointment with missing (5). Trade 3 was just plain wrong, but at least I realised this and exited early. 4 was a good entry but in-trade I managed poorly (late) exiting on a TSL rather than PA.  7 was a great trade.  8 I exited early as my session was coming to an end I wanted to end BE, turned out to be the best thing to do but the correct exit would have been 5 bars later. Patience is improving but still needs work, just like my Prep and Discipline. 

Green arrows = Entries,  Red arrows =  Exits

Series of LHs and fanned SLs =  initial bias short
1. (Missed) Acute TLB. bias stays Short but prepared for reversal at or before prior PBL.
2. (Missed) HL long after TLB =  Long. (out of session hours and missed SLB at 1).
NB:  Bias changes to long as price breaks TL and makes HL =  only trade long and hold through PBs
3. Short off prior RLHs, exited early on realization of missing TLB at (1)! Poor Prep, R-0.5
4. Long off TL,and PB to prior RLH. Exit TSL (should have been close at tick below prior low).  Good Prep, Good Patience, Poor Discipline R-0.4
5.  Possible SAR  (stop and reverse a la Level Headed Trading?)
6. TLB bias stays long but prepared for reversal at or before prior RLH.
7. Long off rejection of Friday  range lows. Prep, patience, discipline good R-0.1
8. Short off rejection at prior PBLs, Prep, patience good. discipline poor R-0.1R+1.2

Weekly Summary 110114 First Break Even Week

Intraday Weekly PL: R-0.25    £-6.04

Summary:
Closed Trade P/L:		-6.04
Balance:		2 219.12
Details:
Gross Profit:		54.70		Gross Loss:				60.74	Total Net Profit:			-6.04
Profit Factor:		0.90		Expected Payoff:				-1.01
Absolute Drawdown:		54.72		Maximal Drawdown:				54.72 (2.46%)	Relative Drawdown:			2.46% (54.72)
Total Trades:		6		Short Positions (won %):				2 (50.00%)	Long Positions (won %):			4 (25.00%)
Profit Trades (% of total):								2 (33.33%)	Loss trades (% of total):			4 (66.67%)
Largest		profit trade:						40.30	loss trade:			-25.92
Average		profit trade:						27.35	loss trade:			-15.19

SUMMARY
As you can see I've called this week BE (I hope quarter of a percent off BE is near enough). This is the first BE week since the beginning of this blog so I'm pretty happy but obviously have a lot of work to do.
The week was cut short because I couldn't trade on Monday due to family commitments. Despite only winning 2 out my six trades, four of the trades were essentially good but I screwed 2 of them up with my in trade discipline (discretionary exits, or fighting price action).  The 2 poor trades (due to entries) and my lack of trades Friday were caused entirely by poor price prep (getting the direction wrong) and patience (pre-empting a PB rather than waiting for it). Got to tidy up my Prep method and keep working on my Prep, Patience and Discipline but with a bias on Prep. Focusing on how best to execute the next piece of PA is far more important than how it makes me feel!

SUMMARY OF TRADES/TRADING
1. poor prep( missing BW) poor patience (not waiting for price to touch S) =  poor trade
2. good prep , good patience, poor disicipline (discretionary early exit) =  essentially a good trade.
3. a fuck up from not not prepping correctly and getting flustered =  poor trade.
4. Good Prep, Good Patience,  Poor discipline (discetionary early exit) =  essentially a good trade.
5. Good prep, good patience,  Poor discipline (discretionary late exit due to fighting market) =  essentially a good trade.
6. Good Prep, Good Patience, Okay Discipline (still discretionary exit but held longer) = essentially a good trade.
Friday:  was a balls up (no trades) because of poor prep.  Luckily I didn't take any trades as would likell have had poor entries.

POSTIVES
1. First BE week
2. More good trades than bad trades

NEGATIVES
1. Poor prep/patience  =  poor entries thus losing trades
2. Poor  Discipline = discretionary early exits due to fear ( not reading price action)
3. Poor Discipline = discretionary late exits due to fighting the market ( not reading price action)

FIXES
1. Need to tidy up my Price Prep method.  I am basically using an amalgamation of Al Brooks and Level Headed Trading method and my guides a little off hence confusion sometimes.  This is the obvious first step to clearing the fuzz.
2&3.  Were both due to poor price prep once in the trade. One fearful early exit because I had not acknowedged that price had reversed so took a scalper loss, rather than holding for a swing profit.  The other was me holding through what should have been a scalpers profit for a swing profit that was never going to happen. Both occurred because I was concentrating on my emotions (fear and gutting it out) rather than PA,  I must focus on PA and nothing else!

ADDITIONS
Just would like to emphasize to myself and have on record that I know all that matters is price action and it's context. Your feeling are irrelivant George, you must trade PA not your emotions to be successful and the proof of that is above.

SWINGS: NA

READ: Friday Session

Won't bore myself with a wordy post after this morning's essay.  Basically just want to show that I probably would have had a better time with bars instead of candles.

aqua squares where price PB/RL to prior S/R level and might offer an entry
Red arrows potential trades
?  HTF do I get into this up move with my current idea? simply a TLB HL reversal entry?

No Trades! For Valid Reasons?...

PL: R0    £0

Summary:  Interestingly when I finished this AM session I thought it might have been some of my best trading, with some perspective it then felt like some of my worse. The reality is it was probably somewhere in the middle... I'm going to venture to say that it was probably some of my better trading.  The LON open sessions were choppy, big and angry, unlike the nice orderly sessions of the JAP close. I would ordinarily have traded it and got stopped out a lot so I probably did well to avoid it. BTW Any opinions I'd like to hear (as you can see below it's turned me schizophrenic for a while)...The question I found myself asking was: If individual sessions are choppy but they are respecting S&R, are the trades viable despite the far larger risk they require? A: I guess to me the risk was not worth it, to someone else it might have been a different story.

Ramblings this session created...
A series of HLs so initially thinking long (even after the TLB). Then price puts in a LL- LH  = making initial bias short and giving an imperfect LH short because it didn't meet a prior level of S/R at 1 (this i was right to avoid). Price then returned into (what was the area of ) a small but long overnight range (grey dashed hrz lines) my bias remained short, expecting a test of 1.36. Don't know if I put too much weight on this past and finished ON range? Price was clearly trending up on the JAP close and down in the LON open should I have traded the trend? was I making excuses? The candles certainly did little to inspire confidence with big overlapping trend bars and shadows. I think I was probably correct but maybe I could have reacted quicker when the average bar size started to reduce and I might have taken trade 6.  
Psychology:  Although the price action looked tempting the grey range was only 10 pips and my brokers spread is 1.5 pips making me doubt potentially good looking trades (in reality this ON range had passed!). It seemed reasonable to sit out the AM chop given several areas of BW but I'm aware that I might have been concentrating on preserving capital rather than reading price action which I know is incorrect. I also know that getting a breakeven week by simply avoiding trades for fear of losing my gains is outcome bias and is a pyrrhic victory. But at the time and because I made a case for it (perhaps because I was focusing on making excuses to not trade?!) I believed sitting out the AM action was correct, here's my chart and my reasons... Looking a couple of hours later 4 and 6 were the only possible trades but 4 was within BW and the middle of a small range. 6 came just after BW so threw me off. But both made nice RLs to R so were perfectly good shorts. Again if I'd stuck to bars not candles I might have seen this clearer!

TLB-LL-LH =  initial bias short but...
1. Imperfect LH as price did not meet prior level of S/R
2. Imperfect PB long entry as trigger was a hiwave doji/hammer (which would have been stopped out).
NB I can see that price is trending down (to 1.36 likely) but I'm not liking the way in which it's doing so (the hi wave candles and big trend bar in both directions)
3. BW, got to avoid all the overlapping bars...  going for a walk (0800-0830)....
4. More BW and a potential short off prior hi but for only a potential 1:1 as 1.36 just below (NB my brokers spread is 1.5 pips) and with the increased BW chop risk not worth it.
5. More BW! have to wait for this to clear...
NB there was a long entry at the botom of the range but it was in BW and the trigger was a doji HM so no good.
6. Q:  did BW clear here because bodies stopped overlapping or do I need to wait for the entire area to clear?
7. potential short off RL to prior low but BW not cleared (maybe it was?), stuck in ON range and 1.36 just below?

READ: PM/US session and some Qs!

TBH not all of this traded in realtime today but God this action made me think.

As suggested I've been looking at the session in bars not candles and prefer the look of it.  It makes price flow evenly as the "sessions" are less obvious so price action becomes one not 150 individual little things. However I'm still technically using candle entries so am swapping between views...

It's interesting when reading Al Brooks "Reading price action ...." he says (and I paraphrase because I'm too lazy to find it) "not to worry about data and to just trade the price action that it creates because it is perfectly valid" and that is precisely what happened this PM.  US initial jobless came out BTE and the dollar rocketed and price action would have got me in on the move.

I'm using a two higher (lower) closes abv/blw a supply or demand line to confirm it as broken.. and a one close as it is still intact (any readers thoughts on this I want to hear please) So...

 TBH I would probably have walked away after the gain from 3. BUT technically I should be able to continue trading this. A few rhetorical Qs that I would actually like answered if anyones got time...
Should I always look for a reversal on a spike?
Should I continue to trade between levels that have been broken to hell? 
Should I simply quit after a large move?

2. was a long because if you look carefully 1 marks 2 bullish closes above the supply line.
3.  was a perfectly valid short as it hit the supply line from the London session and reversed down from there  after only one close above it (despite there being no TLB this was a spike top)... R+5.5
NB as price was moving down I started mapping demand lines from yesterday to help me find the next possible entry (is this correct?)
4&5. spike bottomed after validating a demand line from yesterday putting in reversals so both were long entries.
NB? Once price reversed at the demand level in 4&5 I removed the other demand levels I drew in as a guide (4 dark pinkish lines) as took this as the market confirming what was and wasn't relevant.
6.  was a short off the short term supply level between 4&5,
7&8. were longs off PBs to this supply (now demand) level 

Easier Entries, Poor In-Trade Prep

PL: R+1.7    £+34.28

Summary:  Another easy start. First trade I got in a little early... Despite price meeting the prior RLH the doji trigger should have clued me in to waiting a little longer,  c'est la vie, it was still "technically" correct. The exit on trade 1 was a disaster,  I was basically concentrating so much on stubbornly sitting through the pain of a PB/not getting shaken out I stopped prepping/reading what price action was doing (hitting an area of supply/1.36 and reversing?!). This stubbornness lead to the missing of the possible CT short at 2 (however as there was no TLB yet it would not have been technically correct). But I finished with a nice with trend trade at 3, although with a discretionary exit(1:2). This was in no small part due to the lingering feelings left over from trade 1 where I felt I had been pushing my luck. But this was not the case at all as price was still far away from meeting the next area of supply and so holding would have been the correct action (at least I let some run).

JMF3: "It's not easy , but it's not complicated" springs to mind... What I am doing is not complicated but once in a trade (despite there not being!) it feels as if I have to juggle a few plates. This is because my emotions spring up (the metaphorical second plate) that take my attention away from the the only plate that matters "focus on price action and the context it's in". My main issue today was in-trade-discipline, not continuing to prep/read price action when in a trade. 

Green Arrows Entries,  Red Arrows Exits.

Series of HLs =  initial bias Long, expecting at least a touch of 1.36
1.  Long on PB to prior RL high. Entered on doji, could/should have entered or added to position when 1st PB deepened (at least I didn't get shaken out). Exit late as was concentrating so hard on not getting shaken out of PB around 1.36 I stopped reading/prepping price? Good Initial Prep, Okay Patience, Good Discipline, Poor In Trade Prep,  R-0.3
2.  Missed this "obvious" exit of 1 at 1.36 as I was concentrating so hard on not getting shaken out of a PB I stopped reading/prepping price?! NB this was not a short opportunity as there was no TLB.
3. Long on PB to prior PBL.  Entry:  MO, Exit discretionary 1:2.  Good initial Prep, Good Patience, Poor In Trade Prep,  R+1.9

READ: Support and Resistance instead of TLs

This a reading practice post...

I noticed as I was trading this AM that just trading between S&R seemed simpler and did actually help the PL in terms of avoiding a trade that hadn't reproached a prior S/R level. I can't pretend to have witnessed the trades that occurred from 1135 - 1620 in realtime and I am no longer foolish enough to say "but they look easy enough" but from 0930-1135 and 16.20-1820 I hand on heart acknowledged all the green arrows in real time. I missed however the Aqua arrows but can subsequently see why they are trades. 

This is something that ScalpingtheStretch/LevelHeadedTrading has been patiently telling me for months. I guess my head and eyes needed to catch up with the information. Anywhoo, like he says "less focus on candles and more focus on context" is obviously the way I need to go. And to be honest made for a far more enjoyable experience. 

Bias on candles instead of Price Action

PL: R +0.66   £+14.40

Summary: Generally this was an easier day in terms of direction than yesterday... Having said that I did feel less rusty, spotting BW first thing and frustratingly acknowledging the potential short at 2 but not taking it as it was not "technically" a LH, this of course then went all the way to test 1.36 (Duh!). Gladly I started to respect price action over candles from this point so managed to avoid the short at 4 and take the short at 6 instead that I entered on a trailing Buy Stop. This is the first time ever I've trailed my entry stop, so pretty happy with that. But exited on touch of 1.36 which was a discretionary exit.  Good Prep,  Good Patience,  Poor in trade Discipline.

Series of LHs =  initial bias short
1. BW (barbwire), waiting this out...
2. Felt like a short trade off the small RL back to demand/support after its BD (Polarity Change). But I was focusing too much on the candles (it wasn't technically a LH) than on price action itself (as JMF3 warned me about), I guess at least I saw it could be a trade,  shame.
3. As DWTLs get more acute and the touch of 1.36, perhaps unwisely I'm starting to pre-empt a reversal despite no TLB.
4. Was technically a LH short,  but I avoided it as price action had not RL to a RLH or PBL and it's proximity to 1.36.
5. TLB,  bias technically remains short. But shows some bullish strength.
6. Short off prior RLHs on a trailing buy stop. Discretionary exit at 1.36. Prep & Patience good, Poor Discipline R 0.66

Carnage to PL

P/L:  R-2.4   £-54.72

Summary: Disastrous in terms of P/L. But the read wasn't that bad, esp considering the choppy nature of price action. I was correct but entered too early on 3. I was correct but exited too early on 4 (discretionary exit).  5 was completely wrong because of my discretionary exit on 4.  A ton of stuff to work on, in fact all of it Prep, Patience and Discipline.

Series of LHs and DWTL = bias short
1. TLB bias still short but prepared for a reversal if setup occurs at prior PBL
2. BW I missed,  should have waited to clear... Poor Prep
3.  Long off (near) low, thought it was reversing at prior PBL,  in BW,  Poor Prep & Patience.  R-1
4. Long off touch of PBL, (price had cleared BW). Discretionary Exit... Good Prep, Good patience, Poor Discipline.  R-0.4
5. Short off prior RLH,  poor discipline from prior trade  meant I should have held that one and not entered this one. R-1 

Method
1. Mark the series of HLs/LHs
2. mark PBLs and RLHs
3. draw a TL to define the trend
4. Trade with the series of LHs /HLs
5. On a TLB continue to trade with the trend
5.1 BUT if after a TLB price reverses at the prior PBL / RLH take the reversal trade