310713 1. 21 exit when not in profit, 2. 8 exit when in profit. 3. trading weakness 4. 252 weakness in range

P/L: -0.2 / -£6.46  CAP£2603.24

Trades:
A. Trend Weakness FTMNL - ATMNH =  Wait for trend to develop...
B.  BD of UWTL (+2) after trend Weakness.
1. REV thru 252 (-0.2),  exit 8SMA. Fault used close against 8SMA instead of close against 21EMA,  see below.
C.  REV to 252 (+0.7) ,  exit close ag 8SMA, trade-able because H1 ranging so 252 weak.
D. REV thru 252 (+0.6),  exit cls ag 8SMA, a little difficult to spot with such huge confirmation.

Notes:
Noticed that on Trade 1 had I used cls ag 21EMA as exit I would havbe held this trade into profit.  went back over all trades to date and can confirm that when price has not closed above confirmation it is is more profitable or makes little or no difference to use the 21EMA instead of the 8SMA as early exit... Once the trade has closed above confirmation then you should revert to using the 8 as your exit signal.
When not in profit exit if price closes against 21EMA Add to Guide
When in profit exit when price closes against 8SMA Add to guide
When does trend reset from weakness to strength?? When trend weakens look for CTT and draw a trendline agaisnt trend , enter if  trendline is broken,  this also signals the trend is restablished.  OR trade REV trade which confirms trend change. Add to Guide
BO/BD trade occurs after trend weakness and must touch 50SMA,  conf =  Cls blw TL and 8SMA. Add to Guide
When H1 is ranging, the 252EMA (21 EMA) will be weak so you should be able to trade through it  with out much worry. Add to guide

Summary:  Personally a shit performance today.  I hate saying it but am so tired, I feel like I'm wimping out. By 11am  (5hours) I just didn't care whether the market moved or not. The week definitely had a tough start to it (external problems/ stress/chores) which have worn me out a quite a bit,  but these are still long days and I need to figure out a way of trading them with a little more respite so I can still function.  I need 8 hours sleep (in bed by 10pm), I need  fresh air and a break at least twice during the day,   the best time to takes breaks is when you're not in a trade and price is OE as you need to wait for a PB/RL for any setup to be viable.   and I think audio alerts  should help too. Strategy performed well which is good news, shame about the execution!

300713 Introduction BO/BD setup after Trend Weakness

P/L: -0.1% / -£2.07 CAP £2609.70

Trades
A. Trend Weakness
B.  ??? Really felt like there could be a trade here, but what I'm not quite sure. 1. REV to 252 was unrealistic as 252 was so near the RRR would have been awful. 2. LSH with convergence of support (50 sma + H1 S), is feabile but H1 S&R areas are not precise numbers so could have been false. 3. BO above R (DWTL) + 8/21 after trend weakness. In all honesty think 3 is best as all the parameters can be measured. (+0.8)
1. LSH (-0.1) ,  exit close agianst 8SMA. Bad luck
C.  Trend Weakness
D. BO abv R +8/21 after Trend weakness (+2).

Summary:
Another difficult day personally as I had a doctors appointment I had been waiting for over month for in the afternoon (concerning my eyesight, bill of good health though!).  This meant I couldn't trade the afternoon session however as you can see I didn't miss much. Quite a slow day, stuck around W1 and D1 R.  But provide a nice spot of a new and probably rare setup. 

290713 update of 1. LSH/HSL confirming thru 252, 2. Adjusted TPO update, 3. 252 LSH HSL update.

P/L: 0% / +£1.66 CAP £2611.77

Trades
1. SS 252 (-0.4),  Exit close against 8SMA.  Fault don't trade a PB/RL trade whose confirmation BD/BO 252EMA. Should have waited to trade 2.
2.  HSL 252 (+0.1). Exit close against 8SMA. frustrating was up quite a bit then dwindled.
3. REV thru 252 (+0.1). frustrating like trade 2, as was up quite a bit then dwindled.
A. adjusted TPO. downtrend  when price closes above prior low (not HM/SS), set PT at prior lows
B. adjusted TPO.  uptrend when price closes below prior high (not SS/HM), set PT at prior highs
A. HSL 252 (+2),  exit TPO. This is a variation on a RL trade, it shows that when price RLs to the 252 trigger needn't touch 21EMA, 252EMA is fine.

Notes  to add to Guide!
1.  don't trade PB/RL trades with confirmation BO/BD 252EMA.
2.  Adjusted TPO.A. adjusted TPO. downtrend  when price closes above prior low (not HM/SS), set PT at prior lows.B. adjusted TPO.  uptrend when price closes below prior high (not SS/HM), set PT at prior highs
3. HSL / LSH at 252 triggers need only touch 252EMA (21EMA not needed) and close with 8SMA.

Summary: One fault at the beginning of the day, kind of knew this but needed to experiment. glad I did as I have satisfied that thirst and now know it doesn't work definitively. Great lesson on adjusted TPO and the same on HSL and LSH at 252. Really hard day personally I had a lot of problems at my flat that I rent out and actually spent a lot of the day sorting things out there even visiting mid afternoon. Overall very happy with my results due to this!

260713 Notes on Direction (8/21), trading through S&R, minimum RRR, out of session trades, 252 EMA

P/L: -0.5% / £12  CAP £2610.11

Trades
A. a series of un-trade-able trades because direction (8/21) was extremely narrow and created multiple XO/XD.
B.  LSH (1),  exit D1 R, this was trade-able because direction had expanded and established itself. Add to rules.
1. LSH (-0.5), exit 8SMA. Shouldn't have traded this D1 was so near the IPT was less than 1:1.  The key thing to understand here that a 1:1 RRR is okay on high probability setups,  however less than this is unacceptable due to slippage.
C.  REV to 252 (2),  exit IPT. Example of an out of session trade that worked. You can trade through H1 S&R (it's weak)
Notes:
D. SS (2), out of session trade that worked out, again you can trade through H1 S&R, just don't trade through D1 and W1 levels.
E.  Example of HSL Fault because price had BD 252 but had not PB and touched it!
F. LSH fail (-1).

Notes.

• Direction:  don't trade if conf /trigger uncertain in anyway. Direction is very narrow and XO/XD continuously, wait for Direction to expand before trading. Add to Guide.
• S&R:  Trade through H1 and MA's (50/252), use D1 and W1 S&R as TPO.  never trade if RRR less than 1:1. Add to guide.
• Out of session trades are profitable.
• always wait for a PB/RL after a BO/BD of 252.

Summary:  Personally I struggled today as I was really tired, TBH this is the first week in which I have traded 5 days in a row (the prior 2 weeks were only 4 days for certain reasons). A much better week +£9.88. as opposed to -£179.65 last week, so definitely a solid step in the right direction. I could be far more profitable if I took the out of sessions trades too,  this was probably the biggest factor in my low P/L. I would like to start at 0630GMT and finish at the same time 1530GMT. Learnt some good lessons this week which is what this process is all about. 

250713 New trade "REV Through 252" and tidy guide!

P/L: -1.8% / -36.35 CAP £2623.76

Trades:
1. LSH (-0.4), exit close against 8SMA. Good trade bad luck. H1 tf did show weakness.
2. OE REV (-1),  exit ISL. Fault,  252EMA (potential exit) was directly below entry price so trade had nowhere to go. This is in the guide but not clearly marked (make it so!)
3. LSH (-0.4), exit close against 8SMA. Good trade bad luck. H1 tf did show weakness.
A. HM (2),  is an example of how perseverance and listening to the market  pays off.
B: NEW 252 REV (+2), exit IPT.  Trigger =  lows of last PB to 21EMA, Confimration = cls against trigger lows and 252EMA.
C. LSH (2), out of session.
D. LSH (-0.2), good trade bad luck.

Notes: 
Trades 1 &3 were identical. I followed the strategy correctly and they lost. Got worried by looking at the H1 chart seeing weakness but there was no short confirmation and as such these feeling were invalid. The market will always tell you what to do and it was telling you to be long (Trade A proves this!).

Trade 2 I traded as an OE REV however it wasn't as it was already at its 252 (IPT), so was highly unlikely to work. This made me release that..

1. my guide was not clear enough for me to spot this TO DO TIDY GUIDE.
2. there is infact another REV trade (B) going through the 252 TO DO ADD NEW SETUP.
3. The names of my REV trades are confusing. TO DO RENAME SETUPS.

The three REV strategies are.
1.  REV to 252 = price is OE from MA's, trade back into LT mean.
2. REV to S/R = price is at LT mean,  trade back into S/R.
3. REV through 252 = LT direction is changing,  trade a break through it.

Trade B is an example of the setup I should have been looking for on trade 2 (2 didn't confirm though).

H1 S&R = where price has had polarity changes ADD TO GUIDE

H1 strategy: ADD TO GUIDE
Direction 8/21EMA, 8 abv long, 8 below short.
Trend trades : LSH /HSL, confirmation must close with 8SMA
Reversal,  price close against both 8+21MA in one session.
Exits: ISL:  confirmation hi/lo IPT: 1:2TSL:  track lows (highs) of new highs (lows).cls ag 8SMA,  new trade.

Summary: 3 losses in a row = Quit. My personal success was actually quite good despite me thinking otherwise at the start of this process.  The main loss of today (2) was mainly due to my guide being unclear,  which is ultimately my fault as I wrote it. But it certainly wasn't my lack of following the plan,  it was my inability to follow it correctly as the information was not clear. Another thing I have been able to do today is identify a new trade and develop a basic H1 strategy. Despite this being negative on my P/L, quite a positive day.

240713 update triggers from each PB/RL and respect D1 and W1 S&R as PT's

P/L: 0% / -£2.04  CAP £2660.11

Trades:
A. OE REV (+1), I avoided because I was uncertain of the trigger. I think this was actually due to lack of prep,  I should have marked the high's of the most extreme session of the last  RL to 21EMA. Add to Guide. Also I doubted was unsure of the potential PT (despite my guide saying D1/W1 S/R).
1. OE REV (+0.4), exit TSL. could have and should have taken profit at 252EMA, this is in my rules,  however with the H1 session closing below it's 21EMA it seemed reasonably to hold for a lower price, No follow strategy
2. 252REV (-0.4). exit close against 8SMA. Could argue this was a bit much to ask from price, but TBH, price had been surprising me all day and this REV setup often surprises me from it's strength,  so I guess this was just bad luck.

Notes:
Maybe once up 2% in a session, quit and start at the next.

Summary:
One key thing of today was my unwillingness to follow my guide when trading REV trades, particularly their PT's. In some respects I think this is because I am so used to using a 1:2 that despite my guiding telling me not to I had some internal conflict. However I was lucky and didn't really lose much from this error, and can see plainly with my eyes I must respect the guide. I also learnt that I need to keep updating the potential triggers at each PB/RL as this lack of prep resulted in me missing the first trade (A) of the day. 

230713 8SMA exit, add H1 S&R

P/L: +1.2% / £27.75 CAP£2662.15

Trades
A. HSL (+2) outside of session.
B.  Potential New REV Trade (+2) involving Convergence of S/R. In this case 252EMA + H1 S. Trigger must touch both S/R factors,  Conf must close with 8SMA.
1. HM (-0.5),  Exit close ag 8SMA showed little strength in move. Add to Guide.
2. LSH (-0.3),  Exit close against 8SMA,  good trade.
3. LSH (+2),  Exit TPO, Good Trade.

Notes:
Trade A. although an example of a trade working outside of my trading sessions this is probably quiet unrealistic as I would have had to be trading by 0630.
Trade B.  In two minds about this as I don't want to confuse my guide. I hinsight It's easy to say that it would have been easy to take this move. Either way it pointed out that my chart is lacking H1 S&R,  which considering I'm trading the M5 TF is an indiscretion. Add to Guide.
Trade 1.  Interesting observation on an exit,  "close against 8SMA" = Exit. I used to use this in the past, not convinced I completely understood it. My theory now is that "if price can close back against the 8, the trade doesn't really have much strength/conviction in it". Add to guide.
Trade 2.  LSH benefited from the 8SMA exit.

Range/S/R: Although tempting to go for exact numbers.  you must remeber that they are infact areas. This is why trading BO/BD can be so difficult and why trading PB/RL can be more fruitful , especially if used with a convergence of S/R factors (Polarity changes can be particualy helpful for identifying these areas).
(H1) Range =  area of S/R that matches consolidations and polarity changes in price. Add to Guide.

Summary:  Personally a good day following strategy and money management. Strategy starting to turn a profit (for the time being).  But feel like I'm leaving some profit on the table due to trading in sessions.

220713

P/L:  +1.8% / +£20.52 CAP£2634.40

Trades
A.  HSL outside of trading session (+2)
1. LSH (-0.2),  Exit adjusted TPO as price PB to 21EMA before meeting IPT. Good trade.
B.  LSH outside of trading session. (+2)
C.  Range BO outside of trading session. (+2) despite this not being a setup on my strategy it's pretty clear.
D.  HSL outside of trading session (+2)
2. OE REV (+2). Exit TPO. Good Trade.

Summary: good personal performance and strategy performing much better, however really quite frustrating leaving so much potential profit on the table. I am wondering now that I have such specific trade rules  can I now trade throughout the day? Thought that the BO trade (C) looked good but TBH the LSH (B) triggered before this and would have made the same profit, so I can't justify complicating the strategy yet. But setting a price alert might have been useful  for ease of trading.

180713 Identifying trend weakness, don't trade BO/BD throughS/R/MA's

 example of comparative trend strength on EURJPY

PL: -1.45% / -£45.78 CAP £2613.88

Trades
1. HSL -0.6. Exit ISL. Fault,  could have avoided this trade as trend was showing weakness, see below.
2. OE REV -0.6.  Exit close against 21EMA. Good Trade, Bad luck.
A. Missed a LSH when MA's had aligned!!!
3. HSL -0.25.  Exit TSL, fault,  trading BD through 50SMA,  should have waited for RL. 
B. Example of the Rally I should have traded after the BD of 50SMA
C. Example of another failure to trading a BD through S&R level (this time D1 S)

Thoughts / TO DOS
1. ADD TO GUIDE: Despite not using FTMNH/L as an Entry.  It is really very good at predicting trend weaknesses....
Weakness in down trend: 1 Failure To Make New Low PB + 2 Able To Make New High RL
Weakness in Up trend:  1 Failure to Make New High RL, + 2 Able To Make New Low PB
PB/RL = touch of 21EMA.
2.  ADD TO GUIDE: Trend trading through S&R / MAs can be quite frustrating. There are 2 things I have noticed.
1.  The trades often work for a bit but rarely make 1:2, meaning one could consider an inverted RRR,  but the problem is what is acceptable if at all? 1:1, or just be patient and wait for ...
2. a 1:2 trade only really occurs once price has "detached" itself from the area then RL/PB to the 21EMA.
I've got to say I think waiting for the 1:2 trade is the best option as you have set parameters,  the "1:1" trade is just too vague. So don't trend trade through S&R or 50 / 252EMA,  wait for price to BO/BD then PB/RL for a better trade.
3. DON'T ADD TO GUIDE!  if OE/252 REV fails, you will likely have a good PB/RL trade on the M15 21EMA. Which actually makes logical sesne as a reversal occurs when the ST trend is exhuasting,  A reversal is essentially a medium term PB/RL that will either fail (ST trend REV works) or works (ST rev fails). NO, STICK TO M5! It's what all your work has been on!

Summary: Okay although it is only Thursday this is the end of my week as I'm going to LoveBox tomorrow and I'm bloody knackered. Not going till the PM but just want to go through my guide in AM, I've updated it so much this week I just want to get to know it ( it's like it's had a face lift and I can't recognizie it). I also want to brain storm and think of any thing else it's missing. I know the whole point of this journal is to learn how to trade the strategy but I'd really like to book some profit at some point (not that I'm not grateful for all that I am learning).
Positives:  managed money well, followed Quit rule.
Negatives:  missed a trade,  I was reading emails!. TBH not bothered about trades 1 or 3 because I didn't actually know what I know now when I was trading them so technically I didn't make a mistake. 

170713 Introduction of OE Rev, 252 Rev and Daily and Weekly S&R

P/L: -2.1%/ -£56.56. CAP £2659.66

Trades
1. HSL -0.3.  Exit TSL. Fault, trigger didn't touch 21EMA, personal error!
2. False entry -0.3. Fault, not waiting for close to enter. I was not adapting my strategy I just wasn't concentrating.
3. HSL -1. Exit ISL. Good trade.
A. Example of 252 Reversal , See below.
B.  Example of OE Reversal, See Below.
3. 252 REV -0.5. Exit TSL, Fault D1 R over head should have either placed a TPO around that price, or waited for a PB.
C. Example of OE Reversal, See Below.

Having viewed my old EUM5Scalping blog although flawed in terms of actual execution (I was cherry picking trades instead of being honest), the 21EMA reversal setup is interesting and I was wondering if I could adapt it to my current strategy. This inspired some research and the following thoughts.
There are basically 2 types of reversals I want to get in on they are...
1. OE Reversal:  when price is above all its MA the ST trend might be exhausting.
Short = If price can close below the extreme low of last PB + 50SMA
Long = If price can close above the extreme high of last RL + 50SMA
NB: IPT around 252 as this is when the LT trend might re-establish itself.
2. 252 Reversal: when price has returned to its 252 (LT mean) the LT trend might take over.
Long = Once Price PB to 252, Buy if price closes above the extreme high of the last RL +50SMA
Short = Once Price has RL and touched 252,  Short if price closes below low of last PB + 50SMA
NB: IPT around D1 / W1 S/R.

These would replace FTMNH/L+50 setup as they give the same setups and are easier to spot.

Also I noticed I was marking the D1 and W1 S&R levels (yesterday's and last weeks extreme Hi's and low's) and it seems crazy not to trade with them as they are such important numbers. So I would like to reintroduce them.

Summary: Been very hot in the UK this week,  had fan on through night,  didn't sleep great and woke up late because couldn't hear the alarm (due to fan),  got in front of the charts 10 mins late. Thought I was ok,  as i managed to do my morning routine (feed the cats, go for a walk) but clearly not entirely with it (trades 1&2?!).  Eventually ended making 3 losing trades in a row which is my quitting point and I obeyed it. Despite not having enough sleep I don't want to fall into the habit of saying "well I don't feel perfect so I'm not going to trade today",  this is job, everyone else has to go to work on not enough sleep, you just have to learn to deal with it.  Let's be honest I've only got 5 trades a day max this is hardly exhausting. When I'm tired I've just got to double check each trade with my guide.
Negatives:  Poor chart ident / following strategy. =  got to check each trade with the guide.
Positives: good money management,  obeyed quit rule. Great bit of homework / research, feeling positive.

TO DO
1.  Add D1 and W1 S&R to charts, add to guide...
2. update guide with new reversal trades, replacing old ones. add to guide...
3. big confirmation bars will have eatten up some of the potential profit, don't push your luck on TPO, go for double candle not double risk. add to guide...

160713 Introduction of 1. Quitting point 2. 8/21 as direction 3. adjusted TPO

P/L: -3.75% / -£96.40  CAP £2716.22 (could have been -2.25 had I exited on 3 losses in a row, or +1% had I exited on 1st RL/PB, see below)

Trades
1. HM -0.75. Exit TSL, Made about 1.5 retreated, rallied then topped out. Good trade, bad luck really, but maybe adjust TPO to 1st rally when price PB to 21EMA before hitting IPT .
2. HSL -1. Exit ISL (Should have been TSL), Again made about 1.5 retreated, PB then bottomed out. Good trade, bad luck really, but maybe take profit on second PB when this occurs.
3. SS -1. Exit ISL.  Poor trade outside of trading hours (now having looked back through back testing and forward testing I can see no real benefit of trading throughout the day, instead of my 3 sessions). However  I did feel that this trade signal was incorrect, I felt a long would be more likely and noticed that had I used the 8/21 as trend the trade I took would not have meet the strategy criteria  but "A" would have (see below). I then went back over all my FT to date and noted that I could indeed use the 8/21 as direction instead of 21/50 as I would get the same results (if not slightly better).  ...
A. HSL + 2. the potential trade I mentioned in "3" . Had I used a faster trend signal (8/21).
4. LSH -0.5. Exit TSL. Good trade Bad luck.
5. LSH -0.5. Exit TSL. Good trade bad luck. However after 3 losing trades (excluding my erroneous trade) in a row, less to do with luck and simply strategy not working very effectively today. 

Positives:  Good money management and good observations.
Negatives:  poor discipline 1. not trailing stop loss.  2.  trading outside of set sessions, I had mentioned trying this yesterday and this loss made me review past action to see if it was worth it (it's not). So in someways a positive as I have learnt from it.

Summary:  Again good money management, poor discipline (but due to my questioning my method yesterday and needing to be explored). To be honest despite some faults, with all trades losing the strategy didn't really work today. I'm not panicked, one can't expect perfection but I'm going to update my rules to reflect that...
1. If a trade PB/RL to 21EMA again before hitting TPO, adjust TPO to first high/low made.
2. Direction is actually better taken from the 8/21 EMA as it adapts quickly to the intraday changes.
With these additions I would have made approx 1% for the day which is considerably better than what I made. However do need to guard against large losses so am introducing...
3. 3 losses in a row is the "daily quitting point".
also I noticed...
4. trigger only needs to touch 21 EMA (and 252/50+21 after a XO/XD of 252).
and finally on an unrelated topic to intraday trading...
5. the 21EMA XO/XD setup I mentioned in my other blog is working well on the D1 chart, thinking of placing swing trades off it and also taking longer term direction cues from it too.

150713 Decision to include 50SMA FTMNH/L Reversal

P/L: +1% / £19.09 CAP £2812.62

Trades
A. Example of 50SMA FTMNH reversal (+2). wanted to trade it but wanted to follow strategy more.
1. HSL -1. Exit ISL. Fault, after a XD of 252EMA must wait for (trigger) rally to 50SMA / 252EMA before trading.
2. HSL SS at 252 +2. Exit TPO (take profit order). Good trade.
B. Potential Trade outside of trading hours (0).
C. Potential Trade outside of trading hours (+2).

Notes:
1. Spotted a decent reversal strategy. When price PB to 50SMA trade with trend, but if price Fails To Make New High short if price can close below trigger's low ("M" confirmation). I am assuming this would work identically if the trend was down... When price RL to 50SMA trade with it but if it then Fails To Make New Low, buy when price closes above triggers high ("W" confirmation).
2. All successful with trend PB and RL trades (that closed against 8SMA), closed with the 8SMA on confirmation.
3. All successful  with trend PB and RL trades touched either the 21EMA or 50SMA, with the exception of when a HM or SS occurred on the PB/RL.
4. After a XO/XD of 252EMA, one should wait for a PB to 252 / 50 SMA before trading again.
5. Noted that a couple of trades (B&C) occurred outside my set trading hours. One would have broke even. another would have made +2. I do feel that considering now I have as little as 4 qualifying trades per day it might be worth trading the whole day to get the additional setups.

Summary: Good money management, dare I say "as usual". A nice spot of a good reversal pattern that is highly unlikely to give too many signals (overtrade) and some nice observations regarding current setups and getting them more precise. Despite not trading the reversal strategy (A) or the trades outside my trading times (B&C), I am happy with my discipline as this would have been straying from the strategy. But feel I should look into trading throughout the day seeing that setups are now pretty sparse. The one fault "trading a RL after a 252 XD before price (trigger) had touched the 50sma/252ema" was actually more an observation from having made the loss then going back over past chart action. In general a good day, I am aware I am updating my strategy yet again but I feel this is really just locking down the technicalities and I was lacking a reversal strategy so that felt like a necessity . However I will be careful not to amend too much and just get on with forward testing what I have. My first 1% gain feels like a step in the right direction.

120713 Decision to include TP Order

P/L: -0.75% / -£5.99 (i used slightly smaller risk today) CAP £2739.49

Trades
1. HSL 0.35, Exit TSL. Good trade. But could have been 2% gain if TP order used.
2. HSL 1.5,  exit TSL Good trade.  But again could have been 2% gain if TP order used.
3. HSL 0.8, Exit TSL. Good trade. and again could have been 2% gain if TP order used.
4. HM -1, exit ISL. Bad trade,  shouldn't be trading a HM that is not at the bottom of a move.
5. HSL -0.3,  Exit TSL.  Good Trade. Stopped out too early could have been another 2% gain,  tracking narrow range candles is dangerous.
6. HM -1, Exit ISL. Good trade.  But I'm just getting slaughtered trying to pick reversals I'm thinking of leaving them alone and only trading with the trend (21/50).
7. HSL -1,  Exit ISL. Good trade, bad luck.

Summary:
A good day personally as I followed the strategy and my money management rules well.  However because I am asking so much of the strategy (large gains)  it isn't performing as well as it could if I would just take some profit when it's up 1:2, So I'm relenting. I can't keep fighting the facts. I'm dropping my desire to go for big gains and I'm going to set TP orders and get 1:2 as and when I can. I'm also going to stop trying to pick reversals and look into a new way of going about it as these are killing me (I'm thinking only trading against trend 21/50 when price reaches the LT 252),  so essentially only trend trading (21/50) for the time being.  The number of trades is decreasing which exactly what I wanted (as the strategy was over-trading) and the trade profits are increasing.  Had I traded with TP orders and only with the trend I would have had approx 7% day from only 5 trades. Definitely a step in the right direction.

110713 Decision to Make First Major Change

P/L: -2.15%/-£63.70 (could have been -0.85 without mistakes) CAP £2745.48
Trades
1.  LSH rev at 21EMA (0.1 could have been 1.4). new entry, essentially a MA entry (just like 50/252). Exit inccorect candle resembling a hammer.
2. HM (-1) ISL hit.  Not a hammer
3.  LSH (-1) Exit ISl hit. Good trade.
4. "W" (-0.6) exit TSL. Good trade.
5. LSH (-0.1) exit TSL. Good trade.
6.  SS (0.3) exit TSL.  Good trade.
7. 252 HM (-0.25) ,  exit LSH triggered. Good trade.
8. LSH (0), Exit TSL. Good trade.
9. LSH (0.3),  Exit SS triggered. Good trade.

Summary:
Personally I made one mistake which correctly traded would have netted a 1% gain but resulted in a 1% loss. However the rest of the day was free from mistakes and I followed the strategy well as well as managing risk correctly. But again the strategy disappoints...
The fact is the strategy works on paper but in reality when trading in a moving market that experiences slippage the win/loss ratio is massively reduced from backtesting results of around 50%, to probably below 25% during forward testing.  At the start I felt a few adaptations to the strategy could re-establish the potential profitability.  However after just 3 days I am seeing that the "ifs and buts" needed are relentless and are now even starting to contradict each other. Which of course is completely unacceptable, as a trading strategy must be easy to understand and follow. My backtesting showed that in a month I never had more than 1 losing day and the average daily P/L was 4.88%. In just 3 days I have not been able to achieve anywhere near that return without bending my strategy and losing one of its strongest features...
The beauty of the strategy in backtesting is that although it experienced many losses it kept you in during large moves. This meant unlike a lot strategies it didn't leave large profits on the table (ie 090713 trade 11). So I am keen to keep this. However the problem with this is that in reality its win loss ratio is not as it seems on paper which ultimately means it overtrades. So I need to reduce the trades that meet its critrea and reduce the ISL so my percentage gains are bigger. I understand that this will magnify my losses but the losses aren't the problem as I am managing them well (always under 1%) the problem is the winners aren't paying for the losers.

As you can see my current trade strategy is getting quite complicated...

So I am going to dramatically simplify it to...

Days: M-F

Times: 0700-1000, 1130-1150, 1330-1530

Trend: 21/50

Setups:

Buy on PB using LSH, lowest low (trigger) must touch a MA,  

Buy on a PB using a strong HM (needn't touch MA),

Sell on a RL using a HSL, highest high(trigger) must touch a MA,  

Sell on a RL using a SS (needn't touch MA),

ISL: Confirmation + 4pips

TSL: low of each new high + 4pips (never anything resembling a SS)/ high of each new low (never a HM)

Exit:  ISL, TSL,  when new trade triggers.

100713

P/L: 0.5% / £15.35 (without errors 4.4%) CAP £2809.18

Trades
1. SS at 252 EMA (-0.2). Good trade,  Exit LSH triggered.
2. LSH (-0.2).  Exit 252 reversal triggered. Could have had smaller ISL of 2.5pips
3. 252 reversal (-0.4). Good trade, exit HM triggered.
4. HM (1.3).  Exit TSL.  Could have had a smaller ISL of 2.5 pips. Frustrating as was up 2% at one point.
5. Bull EP (-0.46). Good trade had managed to adjust to correct ISL size.
6. HM (0.1). Exit TSL. Frustrating as was up 2% at one point.
7. "M" (-0.3). Good Trade Exit HM triggered.
8.  HM (1.1). Exit SS triggered, incorrect as I should never trade the first reversal after a range BO/BD or Price MAXO unless price has touched the 8SMA.  Frustrating as was up 2% at one point.

Summary:
In general a much better personal performance today, trade identification was much improved, maintained good risk management and followed strategy loyally. However I was less impressed with how the strategy performed.

Negatives:  

• Getting ISL size wrong for long trades at the beginning of the day. I was using +4 pips rather than +2.5 pips on long trades.
• Leaving profit on the table,  there were 3 trades in which I could have booked a 2%  profit (6% in total!). My backtested strategy does not use TP orders, but I feel I have to review this!
• Exiting on a reversal signal after a BO before Price had PB to 8SMA.

090713 The Start

P/L: +0.75%/£27.02 (without errors 3.35%) CAP £2793.83
Trades
1. (-1) "M" incorrect identification.  Use a line chart to help in identification, ensuring 2 definite peaks. But good money management.
2. (-0.6) LSH incorrect identification. Trigger should have touched 8SMA. But good money management.
3. (-1) "M" incorrect entry.  Correct entry = when price closes below low of "M" trough. But good money management.
4. (-0.55) A good trade.
5. (0) "M" incorrect entry.  Correct entry = when price closes below low of "M" trough. But good money management.
6.  (-0.5)A good trade.
7. (0) A good trade.
8. (-0.3) A good trade.
9. (-1) A good trade.
10. (0) A good trade.
11. (5.7)A good trade,  had to hold through a Rally but was expecting this after a cross down of moving averages.
Summary: Despite poor morning of over trading I managed to settle down in the afternoon session and book a small profit for the day. A good day as I am identifying my weaknesses so know where to focus my energy and can start updating my guide/strategy.
Negatives: I am poor at identifying chart action as it is developing in front of me. Solution: keep practising so I get better at identification and update my guide with the lessons I have learnt today so I am far less likely to make them again.
Positives: In all my trades I used good money management, never losing more than 1% of my account on any one trade. I have been able to learn and update my guide and now have a yard stick to measure my progress from.