Tuesday 16 July 2013

160713 Introduction of 1. Quitting point 2. 8/21 as direction 3. adjusted TPO



P/L: -3.75% / -£96.40  CAP £2716.22 (could have been -2.25 had I exited on 3 losses in a row, or +1% had I exited on 1st RL/PB, see below)

Trades
1. HM -0.75. Exit TSL, Made about 1.5 retreated, rallied then topped out. Good trade, bad luck really, but maybe adjust TPO to 1st rally when price PB to 21EMA before hitting IPT .
2. HSL -1. Exit ISL (Should have been TSL), Again made about 1.5 retreated, PB then bottomed out. Good trade, bad luck really, but maybe take profit on second PB when this occurs.
3. SS -1. Exit ISL.  Poor trade outside of trading hours (now having looked back through back testing and forward testing I can see no real benefit of trading throughout the day, instead of my 3 sessions). However  I did feel that this trade signal was incorrect, I felt a long would be more likely and noticed that had I used the 8/21 as trend the trade I took would not have meet the strategy criteria  but "A" would have (see below). I then went back over all my FT to date and noted that I could indeed use the 8/21 as direction instead of 21/50 as I would get the same results (if not slightly better).  ...
A. HSL + 2. the potential trade I mentioned in "3" . Had I used a faster trend signal (8/21).
4. LSH -0.5. Exit TSL. Good trade Bad luck.
5. LSH -0.5. Exit TSL. Good trade bad luck. However after 3 losing trades (excluding my erroneous trade) in a row, less to do with luck and simply strategy not working very effectively today. 

Positives:  Good money management and good observations.
Negatives:  poor discipline 1. not trailing stop loss.  2.  trading outside of set sessions, I had mentioned trying this yesterday and this loss made me review past action to see if it was worth it (it's not). So in someways a positive as I have learnt from it.

Summary:  Again good money management, poor discipline (but due to my questioning my method yesterday and needing to be explored). To be honest despite some faults, with all trades losing the strategy didn't really work today. I'm not panicked, one can't expect perfection but I'm going to update my rules to reflect that...
1. If a trade PB/RL to 21EMA again before hitting TPO, adjust TPO to first high/low made.
2. Direction is actually better taken from the 8/21 EMA as it adapts quickly to the intraday changes.
With these additions I would have made approx 1% for the day which is considerably better than what I made. However do need to guard against large losses so am introducing...
3. 3 losses in a row is the "daily quitting point".
also I noticed...
4. trigger only needs to touch 21 EMA (and 252/50+21 after a XO/XD of 252).
and finally on an unrelated topic to intraday trading...
5. the 21EMA XO/XD setup I mentioned in my other blog is working well on the D1 chart, thinking of placing swing trades off it and also taking longer term direction cues from it too.


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