Monday 15 July 2013

150713 Decision to include 50SMA FTMNH/L Reversal



P/L: +1% / £19.09 CAP £2812.62

Trades
A. Example of 50SMA FTMNH reversal (+2). wanted to trade it but wanted to follow strategy more.
1. HSL -1. Exit ISL. Fault, after a XD of 252EMA must wait for (trigger) rally to 50SMA / 252EMA before trading.
2. HSL SS at 252 +2. Exit TPO (take profit order). Good trade.
B. Potential Trade outside of trading hours (0).
C. Potential Trade outside of trading hours (+2).

Notes:
1. Spotted a decent reversal strategy. When price PB to 50SMA trade with trend, but if price Fails To Make New High short if price can close below trigger's low ("M" confirmation). I am assuming this would work identically if the trend was down... When price RL to 50SMA trade with it but if it then Fails To Make New Low, buy when price closes above triggers high ("W" confirmation).
2. All successful with trend PB and RL trades (that closed against 8SMA), closed with the 8SMA on confirmation.
3. All successful  with trend PB and RL trades touched either the 21EMA or 50SMA, with the exception of when a HM or SS occurred on the PB/RL.
4. After a XO/XD of 252EMA, one should wait for a PB to 252 / 50 SMA before trading again.
5. Noted that a couple of trades (B&C) occurred outside my set trading hours. One would have broke even. another would have made +2. I do feel that considering now I have as little as 4 qualifying trades per day it might be worth trading the whole day to get the additional setups.

Summary: Good money management, dare I say "as usual". A nice spot of a good reversal pattern that is highly unlikely to give too many signals (overtrade) and some nice observations regarding current setups and getting them more precise. Despite not trading the reversal strategy (A) or the trades outside my trading times (B&C), I am happy with my discipline as this would have been straying from the strategy. But feel I should look into trading throughout the day seeing that setups are now pretty sparse. The one fault "trading a RL after a 252 XD before price (trigger) had touched the 50sma/252ema" was actually more an observation from having made the loss then going back over past chart action. In general a good day, I am aware I am updating my strategy yet again but I feel this is really just locking down the technicalities and I was lacking a reversal strategy so that felt like a necessity . However I will be careful not to amend too much and just get on with forward testing what I have. My first 1% gain feels like a step in the right direction.

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