Friday 12 July 2013

110713 Decision to Make First Major Change




P/L: -2.15%/-£63.70 (could have been -0.85 without mistakes) CAP £2745.48
Trades
1.  LSH rev at 21EMA (0.1 could have been 1.4). new entry, essentially a MA entry (just like 50/252). Exit inccorect candle resembling a hammer.
2. HM (-1) ISL hit.  Not a hammer
3.  LSH (-1) Exit ISl hit. Good trade.
4. "W" (-0.6) exit TSL. Good trade.
5. LSH (-0.1) exit TSL. Good trade.
6.  SS (0.3) exit TSL.  Good trade.
7. 252 HM (-0.25) ,  exit LSH triggered. Good trade.
8. LSH (0), Exit TSL. Good trade.
9. LSH (0.3),  Exit SS triggered. Good trade.

Summary:
Personally I made one mistake which correctly traded would have netted a 1% gain but resulted in a 1% loss. However the rest of the day was free from mistakes and I followed the strategy well as well as managing risk correctly. But again the strategy disappoints...
The fact is the strategy works on paper but in reality when trading in a moving market that experiences slippage the win/loss ratio is massively reduced from backtesting results of around 50%, to probably below 25% during forward testing.  At the start I felt a few adaptations to the strategy could re-establish the potential profitability.  However after just 3 days I am seeing that the "ifs and buts" needed are relentless and are now even starting to contradict each other. Which of course is completely unacceptable, as a trading strategy must be easy to understand and follow. My backtesting showed that in a month I never had more than 1 losing day and the average daily P/L was 4.88%. In just 3 days I have not been able to achieve anywhere near that return without bending my strategy and losing one of its strongest features...
The beauty of the strategy in backtesting is that although it experienced many losses it kept you in during large moves. This meant unlike a lot strategies it didn't leave large profits on the table (ie 090713 trade 11). So I am keen to keep this. However the problem with this is that in reality its win loss ratio is not as it seems on paper which ultimately means it overtrades. So I need to reduce the trades that meet its critrea and reduce the ISL so my percentage gains are bigger. I understand that this will magnify my losses but the losses aren't the problem as I am managing them well (always under 1%) the problem is the winners aren't paying for the losers.

As you can see my current trade strategy is getting quite complicated...
So I am going to dramatically simplify it to...

Days: M-F
Times: 0700-1000, 1130-1150, 1330-1530
Trend: 21/50
Setups:
Buy on PB using LSH, lowest low (trigger) must touch a MA,  
Buy on a PB using a strong HM (needn't touch MA),
Sell on a RL using a HSL, highest high(trigger) must touch a MA,  
Sell on a RL using a SS (needn't touch MA),

ISL: Confirmation + 4pips
TSL: low of each new high + 4pips (never anything resembling a SS)/ high of each new low (never a HM)
Exit:  ISL, TSL,  when new trade triggers.


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