Thursday 18 July 2013

180713 Identifying trend weakness, don't trade BO/BD throughS/R/MA's

 example of comparative trend strength on EURJPY


PL: -1.45% / -£45.78 CAP £2613.88

Trades
1. HSL -0.6. Exit ISL. Fault,  could have avoided this trade as trend was showing weakness, see below.
2. OE REV -0.6.  Exit close against 21EMA. Good Trade, Bad luck.
A. Missed a LSH when MA's had aligned!!!
3. HSL -0.25.  Exit TSL, fault,  trading BD through 50SMA,  should have waited for RL. 
B. Example of the Rally I should have traded after the BD of 50SMA
C. Example of another failure to trading a BD through S&R level (this time D1 S)

Thoughts / TO DOS
1. ADD TO GUIDE: Despite not using FTMNH/L as an Entry.  It is really very good at predicting trend weaknesses....
Weakness in down trend: 1 Failure To Make New Low PB + 2 Able To Make New High RL
Weakness in Up trend:  1 Failure to Make New High RL, + 2 Able To Make New Low PB
PB/RL = touch of 21EMA.
2.  ADD TO GUIDE: Trend trading through S&R / MAs can be quite frustrating. There are 2 things I have noticed.
1.  The trades often work for a bit but rarely make 1:2, meaning one could consider an inverted RRR,  but the problem is what is acceptable if at all? 1:1, or just be patient and wait for ...
2. a 1:2 trade only really occurs once price has "detached" itself from the area then RL/PB to the 21EMA.
I've got to say I think waiting for the 1:2 trade is the best option as you have set parameters,  the "1:1" trade is just too vague. So don't trend trade through S&R or 50 / 252EMA,  wait for price to BO/BD then PB/RL for a better trade.
3. DON'T ADD TO GUIDE!  if OE/252 REV fails, you will likely have a good PB/RL trade on the M15 21EMA. Which actually makes logical sesne as a reversal occurs when the ST trend is exhuasting,  A reversal is essentially a medium term PB/RL that will either fail (ST trend REV works) or works (ST rev fails). NO, STICK TO M5! It's what all your work has been on!

Summary: Okay although it is only Thursday this is the end of my week as I'm going to LoveBox tomorrow and I'm bloody knackered. Not going till the PM but just want to go through my guide in AM, I've updated it so much this week I just want to get to know it ( it's like it's had a face lift and I can't recognizie it). I also want to brain storm and think of any thing else it's missing. I know the whole point of this journal is to learn how to trade the strategy but I'd really like to book some profit at some point (not that I'm not grateful for all that I am learning).
Positives:  managed money well, followed Quit rule.
Negatives:  missed a trade,  I was reading emails!. TBH not bothered about trades 1 or 3 because I didn't actually know what I know now when I was trading them so technically I didn't make a mistake. 

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