Wednesday 17 July 2013

170713 Introduction of OE Rev, 252 Rev and Daily and Weekly S&R




P/L: -2.1%/ -£56.56. CAP £2659.66

Trades
1. HSL -0.3.  Exit TSL. Fault, trigger didn't touch 21EMA, personal error!
2. False entry -0.3. Fault, not waiting for close to enter. I was not adapting my strategy I just wasn't concentrating.
3. HSL -1. Exit ISL. Good trade.
A. Example of 252 Reversal , See below.
B.  Example of OE Reversal, See Below.
3. 252 REV -0.5. Exit TSL, Fault D1 R over head should have either placed a TPO around that price, or waited for a PB.
C. Example of OE Reversal, See Below.

Having viewed my old EUM5Scalping blog although flawed in terms of actual execution (I was cherry picking trades instead of being honest), the 21EMA reversal setup is interesting and I was wondering if I could adapt it to my current strategy. This inspired some research and the following thoughts.
There are basically 2 types of reversals I want to get in on they are...
1. OE Reversal:  when price is above all its MA the ST trend might be exhausting.
Short = If price can close below the extreme low of last PB + 50SMA
Long = If price can close above the extreme high of last RL + 50SMA
NB: IPT around 252 as this is when the LT trend might re-establish itself.
2. 252 Reversal: when price has returned to its 252 (LT mean) the LT trend might take over.
Long = Once Price PB to 252, Buy if price closes above the extreme high of the last RL +50SMA
Short = Once Price has RL and touched 252,  Short if price closes below low of last PB + 50SMA
NB: IPT around D1 / W1 S/R.
These would replace FTMNH/L+50 setup as they give the same setups and are easier to spot.
Also I noticed I was marking the D1 and W1 S&R levels (yesterday's and last weeks extreme Hi's and low's) and it seems crazy not to trade with them as they are such important numbers. So I would like to reintroduce them.

Summary: Been very hot in the UK this week,  had fan on through night,  didn't sleep great and woke up late because couldn't hear the alarm (due to fan),  got in front of the charts 10 mins late. Thought I was ok,  as i managed to do my morning routine (feed the cats, go for a walk) but clearly not entirely with it (trades 1&2?!).  Eventually ended making 3 losing trades in a row which is my quitting point and I obeyed it. Despite not having enough sleep I don't want to fall into the habit of saying "well I don't feel perfect so I'm not going to trade today",  this is job, everyone else has to go to work on not enough sleep, you just have to learn to deal with it.  Let's be honest I've only got 5 trades a day max this is hardly exhausting. When I'm tired I've just got to double check each trade with my guide.
Negatives:  Poor chart ident / following strategy. =  got to check each trade with the guide.
Positives: good money management,  obeyed quit rule. Great bit of homework / research, feeling positive.

TO DO
1.  Add D1 and W1 S&R to charts, add to guide...
2. update guide with new reversal trades, replacing old ones. add to guide...
3. big confirmation bars will have eatten up some of the potential profit, don't push your luck on TPO, go for double candle not double risk. add to guide...

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