Practice Read

Routine a little off this week.  Been going to bed later than I should (GF's away) and that effected my trading yesterday and today.  So much so today that on waking I knew I was overtired so slept in. 

EU Obs: Easy trend on Lows and Highs, made easier to see with bar charts

EJ Obs: Again a HH followed by a LL =  confusion (just like yesterday)

R+0: A little Rust from long weekend

Few of things

1. Long weekend and tired meant I was a little tentative, nothing to worry about just the facts.
2. So rusty wrote this post first before realizing I hadn't done last weeks summary! ha
3. Ticks (rather than closes) do confirm Highs and Lows
4. Hi Wave bars despite (IMO) being bad triggers are good at displaying S&R. 

EU Obs:  Would have had B had I used ticks to confirm Highs and Lows rather than closes.

EJ Obs:  Not too bothered about this,  it was hard to read.  I couldn't get a handle on it so trading it would have been idiotic.

29th Sep - 2Oct 2014 Summary: R-1.7

Fairly massive week for me and my trading: A far more proactive method...

• Searching for the sweet spot (where bulls and bears are going the same way). 
• Trend Indicator changed to: Start labelling Highs and Lows (HH/LH and LL/HL)
• Start labelling potentially sketchy PA (SS/HM/Hi Waves/ Tests)
• pairing a SAR candle reversal with western TA to strengthen it.
• removed GU chart as it rips me up and I feel overstretched. 
• Stopping trading doji triggers
• Accepting trades don't need to be at 20EMA

Monday Issue: Bought into a High wave Shooting Star.  (Certainly not a sweet spot!)

Tuesday Issues: not being aware of new trend, not being aware of PA, not trading off S/R

Wednesday Issues: trying to pick tops and bottoms (counter trend)

Thursday Issues:  trading a doji trigger

Friday: OFF

For my records...

This post on micro ranges is frankly brilliant...  http://scalppipping.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/september-30.html

This mass email paragragh was interesting...“ Whether you’re a Greed Based Trader (GBT) or a Fear Based trader (FBT) you need your discipline to consistently follow either your Risk Management principles (in the case of a GBT) or the discipline to consistently follow your trading plan (in the case of an FBT). Overall if you’re not managing risk you’ll end up as road-kill. Finally you need to know yourself and your own strengths and weakness to determine what type of trader you are and where you’re most likely to achieve success as a trader or investor.” http://www.fxtraderpaul.com/

R-0.1: Reads Getting Better With Highs and Lows

Stuff I took away from session...

1. I'm missing stuff(setups). which suggests I'm over-stretched. 
2. GU (remove) is known as being more volatile and TBH it just rips my reads up. So for that reason and the above (1) I'm going to remove it so I have more time on of EU, EJ,UJ.
3. Doji triggers (don't trade). Honestly I think they're crap.  A doji = indecision, neither the bulls or bear know what is going on, so a tick abv/blw it  is hardly decisive as neither side is that committed/ shown it's hand. Therefore In my eyes a tick abv/blw a trend bar is far more decisive.
4. Reads improving due to marking highs and lows. Massive improvement in clarity. 
5. Only Reversing after PA makes a LH/HL plus Reversal pattern. IS strong and clear.
6. With trend PB/RL setups don't need to be at 20EMA!

EJ Obs: Good read (marking Highs and Lows are definitely helping!) too caught up in UJ and GU to captialize.

EU Obs: Good read,  again UJ and GU took attention.

GU Obs: PA choppy even when marking Highs and Lows

UJ Trades: Good read,  doji trigger messed me up on first trade.

R-0.7: Trying to Pick Counter Trend Tops and Bottoms!

I know why this happened... because this is kind of the essence of S&R trading, trying to get in at the start of the move. BUT I was completely disregarding the trend... This is where I get messed up by the Al Brooks Method and the JMF3/Sam Seiden Method. TBH there are times when I look at some of JMF3's trades completely bemused and in awe, with no idea how he got in at the high or low. Anyway going to stick with trend (of highs and lows) until it fails for the time being. 

Issues: trying to pick tops and bottoms / counter-trend trading x3

Positive: pairing a SAR candle reversal with western TA to strengthen it.

EU Obs: Started day off wrong wishing I had been around for "A" counter trend SS short. Rest in the chart... 

Fault: trying to pick top reversal. 

Positive: pairing western reversal (H&S) with SAR  to strengthen it.

EJ Trade: Again was trying to pick the reversal rather than get with trend! Rest in the chart.
Fault trying to pick the bottom.

UJ Obs: Again trying to pick the top!

Fault: trying to pick top reversal. 

Positive: pairing western reversal (M) with SAR  to strengthen it.

GU Obs: Better was trying to get with trend.

Positive: pairing western reversal (W) with SAR  to strengthen it.

R-1.0: some Guide issues to address

UPDATE: Sam Seiden just published this article which is quite appropriate to this post, 

http://lessons.tradingacademy.com/article/candles-or-white-space-where-is-your-focus/?elq=0b658b8a3dce444e85c189409588f25c&elqCampaignId=1848

........

Issues

1. Fault not being aware of new trend / highs and lows x 3
2. Fault not being aware of PA (SS, Y Hi test) x 2
3. fault not trading off S/R

Fixes...

1. Start labelling Highs and Lows (HH/LH and LL/HL)
2. Start labelling potentially stectchy PA (SS/HM/Hi Waves/ Tests)
3. Only take trades off S/R!

EJ Obs: was right to initially look for Range trades, despite the trend being up with so much R "A" would have made a good short.  However when price made a LL-LH,  should have been waiting for a RL to get short (B). Fault not being aware of highs and lows.

EU Obs: initially planning to trade range was correct as there was no trend. However trade "A" was not going to be great as it was straight into a SS tail. However when Price made a LL-LH I should have been looking to short on a RL "B". Fault not being aware of SS or Highs and Lows.

GU Trade: Trend was clearly up so looking to get long was the right idea. However buying before price reached S and just after a test of Yesterday's High "1" was not a well planned trade. Taking trade "A" a few bars later long into Y Hi was had a much better chance. Fault Price not at S and having just tested Y Hi meant I was buying with weak hands: a bull trap.

UJ Obs: Trend was initially hard to identify flirting with shorting "A" was not a bad idea as it was at Y Mp and arguably some usable R. However once price made a HH-HL I should have been looking to get long on a PB "B". Fault not aware of Highs and Lows.

R+0.05: The Sweet Spot, When Bulls and Bears Are Doing The Same Thing

Today was great fun. I practised, I learnt and made a minuscule success.

The chart that really taught me the most or perhaps magnified what I am actually trying to do with my trading was the UJ. These lessons and observations were then mirrored and repeated throughout the session in the other pairs. The GU trade I took was slightly unlucky as every other trade I saw worked out, however I got out when it was getting choppy for a small profit.

Here are the major things from this session

1. I want to get Long when Bulls are buying at the same time as Bears are covering ...
2. I want to get Short when Bears are selling at the same time as Bulls are taking profit.
3. But you should only buy a lo (sell hi) if it is far enough away from the last hi (lo) to be profitable. Unless in a clear strong trend "start looking for price reversal setups back into the strong trend. When in a strong trend you do not need to wait for price to touch the BB(or S/R)"(thanks for this James)
4. More importantly than marking all S&R, is to mark the S&R where Bulls and Bears are both going to be doing the same (see UJ Chart correct and incorrect S&R example)
5. Doing the above is fun. I don't care what anyone says about trading. If you don't like doing something in any walk of life (ie following a system) you're unlikely to make it profitable! For the first time in a very long time (perhaps years) I found the work process engaging, entertaining and enjoyable.

UJ Obs: S/R level "Y" was not worth labelling because it was not worth trading. Any trade initiaed off it were only going to screwed by S level "X" and R level "Z".

EU Obs:

EJ Obs:

GU Trade:

22nd-26th Sep 14: R+0 Miriad of Issues

Monday: Physiological issues. Head Sludge... really struggled to concentrate, missed 2 easy plays. Introduced warm up for body and mind.  Body = Callisthenics, Mind = hard sum before starting day, certainly helped rest of week.

Tuesday: Plan issues. Actually failure to plan. During my session I realised that I don't actually know what I'm doing! My guide had taken me all the way up to prepping charts but no further. I have now added planning trades off the levels and am writing them( the plans) on the charts. Which means I am not constantly flicking through the charts and exhausted when a trade finally appears.

Wednesday: Trigger Issue: I have only been trading off inside bars for about 6 months which is not an excuse for missing a trade , it is a lesson and have added to the plan/guide to visibly mark IB triggers on my chart so I don't miss them!

Thursday: Session Issue. missed 2 really easy trades because they occurred 15 minutes before my session starts. I have got more lax of late and need to start by 0800 rather than 0830 like recently.

Friday: No Setups off 20EMA. PA was just stuck in ranges and BW all session.

20EMA Thoughts: As for the 20EMA I am just going to let the removal happen naturally, like I did with  the 8SMA. At the mo it is more of a hindrance not having the 20EMA so that is a clear sign that for the time being it needs to stay and as there are clearly trades to be had I shouldn't sweat it. This is not to say that I am not striving to get my charts naked long-term but the more pressing issue is to get some trades going and see if I can with the above changes start to get in the black.

Summary: It's been an enormous week really. I have gone from thinking most of my problems have been psychological (which in part they were), to realising they can't be entirely if I am getting up and doing the work! So thinking they were then physiological (which in part they were) to finally seeing that there was also plan failure in terms of it not guiding me throughout my session. Ultimately in all three there were issues, these 3 things I am going to call the "3P's" (Psychology, Physiology,Plan Failure) as identifying each of them as potential areas problems can begin this week has been most useful.

1. Get up work and warm up Mind and Body
2. Prep charts and write trade plan for each pair on charts
3. Start watching by 0800GMT
4. Chillout until one the plans begins to setup
5. Mark potential triggers on charts particularly IB's
6. Take all setups they are high prob!
7. Should they fail SAR as this is high prob!
8. Issues? check the 3 P's (Psyc, Phys, Plan)

Thoughts on Replacing 20EMA

Couple of things...

Thinking on the 20EMA and how I use it, I really think of it as a guide to ensure that PB/RL is deep enough, my reason being to avoid buying too close to a top or selling too close to a bottom. Not saying I can't get rid of it, just that maybe if I understand/define why I like it so much I will be able to replace it easier...

Read this old article by Sam Seiden. He's talking about supply and demand, ensuring you're buying low and selling high by marking out prior S&R before your session starts. Then planning a trade around these levels and using OCO orders to "set and forget" to ensure he doesn't mess with it when the anxiety creeps in. I actually don't think I'm that far off this. I basically do all of that except the orders. Maybe doing a few set and forgets will help me trust my analysis, when I see it work? 

John put me on to Sam Seiden a while back with one his PDFs i think on ForexFactory...

here's some other stuff I want to read on tradingacademy.com...

https://www.tradingacademy.com/about-us/news/sam_seiden_back_to_the_laws_of_supply_and_demand.pdf

http://lessons.tradingacademy.com/article/trading-with-the-trend-4/

Here's today's EU chart and an update...

R+0: Failing to Plan

It's all very well saying you're going to remove the 20EMA, but if it's the basis of all you setups (like it is mine) you're kind of fucked if you haven't prepared some new ones. ;-)

Now this might come across quite serious but while writing this I am actually quite amused and grateful that I spotted this pretty much immediately.

Q. how much probability do I need to enter long or short? In my 20ema setups I was getting price to touch a S/R area + the 20EMA (in my eyes 2 bits of evidence) for a valid setup. If I remove the 20EMA what am I going to use instead to strengthen the trade (or maybe more importantly) my resolve?

None of my 20ema setups occurred in this session SO I'm not giving myself too hard a time. I did spot some other trades BUT these (at least in my head) required the 240EMA/H1 20EMA and surely in essence this is the same a trading with the 20EMA as it's just another EMA. 

Part of me is thinking: 1. trade off 20EMA+S&R in trend. 2. Trade 240EMA+S&R in sludge (like today).

EJ Obs:

EU Obs

GU Obs

UJ Obs

R+0: Again No Setups

As I mentioned yesterday I'm starting to seriously consider removing the 20EMA from my chart (thanks for the comment John). My anxiety is that this is in a way where my melt down started last time. But I've got to remember I am a very different trader now and over the last nine months my understanding of trading levels has greatly increased. 

So as an intermediary step I am going to keep the 20EMA but reduce it's tone down to practically the same colour as my background (see below)... 

Note to self probably need to start earlier, been going for 0830GMT, think 0800 might be better.

EU Obs: Missed trade as before my session started, but trade just as trade-able without the 20EMA!

EJ Obs: Missed trade as before my session started, but again trade just as trade-able without the 20EMA!

GU Obs: Not favouring the 20EMA would have made this easy to trade!

R+0: Great Routine, No Setups

Bingo! Much better day, Got up did some callisthenics,  a little math to wakeup the head,  worked the LOA, did prep and then wrote game plan for each pair on chart (and by chance C had all the windows open in the flat so lots of fresh air). Worked a treat.

Screen looked like this...

EU Obs: Mark and Update trigger line to avoid missing the eventual setup. Add to guide!

BUT was this even easier to trade with no 20EMA?!

GU Obs: Got a little confused and was still looking to short rather than the SAR...

 BUT would this have been easier to see had I not had the 20EMA on the chart?!

R+0: Still Missing Plays (Lack of Order)

As opposed to yesterday I felt good this morning (no fuzzy head) despite having a heavy night. Again got up on time and did prep so I clearly wanted to trade, but again I missed setups. 

I'm starting to think that I'm actually lacking direction/clarity during the session. After I've done my prep there's honestly not much order in my trading day. I keep my "game plan" for each pair in my head, but as I'm looking at 4 pairs this can get confusing and I probably end up skipping through the pairs, analysing PA for trades far more than is needed(ie when PA is in a range!). I often feel by the time a setup occurs my eyes and objectivity are exhausted and end up passing on/missing the setup. 

So it seems clear and completely obvious that I need to add to my prep a short written game plan (on chart or blog) for each pair. This way I will be able to spend less time analysing the charts and more time glancing at them, so that when PA meets my setup criteria I will be fresh and able to exploit my edge.

Technical NB: Noticed that inside bars create nice S&R!

EU Obs: Hi wave triggers can be traded! AND Inside bars make S/R levels

EJ Obs: