Thursday 15 August 2013

150813 Data trade, Trusting guide, Communication



PL:  -0.3%/ -£7.83   CAP £2497.36

Trades:
A.  Price needed to PB to 252 ( expect slow start/range as ITA anf FRE bank holiday)
B.  HSL,  avoided due to very tight direction MAs and weak confirmation
1.  HSL (-0.3),  exit close against 8SMA,  Fault1. didn't check guide RRR was less than 1:1 =  no trade. 2.  treated like a normal trade and exited on. Exit early as soon as you spot a fault Add to Guide
C. HSL, avoided because RRR less than 1:1
D. Price still needing to return to 252EMA before tradeable
E.  Data Trade.  this is an oldie but a goodie that I have not yet added to my current guide. You stop trading 30 mins beofre a major result.  If data comes out as expected  wait 10 mins for volatility to die down, then resume trading normally.  IF a Major change happens (better/worse than expected), wait for the first 5 mintue bar to close then trade with it's direction, exits all as usual NB can trade through 252 on data trades Add to Guide
F. Price needs to RL to 252 after BD.
G. Price BD D1 252EMA and RL, does this override the need for a 252 RL? A: reviewed past action = NO
H. Potential HSL valid? A: NO should wait until a RL to 252 (0),  exit TSL.

Notes:
In recent weeks my communication with other traders has increased massively and I'm very grateful for it. It is interesting to see what others are doing and how they trade the market to suit their personality. It only strengthens my resolve that no one method is right, wrong or better than someone else's. IMHO it's all about finding a method that matches your logic (the way you reason/think), as this way you're far less likely to have psychological problems with it. After chatting with a trader who wrote an interesting post on using a top down approach ( one can see it here) I realised that although starting that way I have actually become more of a bottom up trader without realizing it. This is because the top down approach didn't match my logic, so my psychology got very upset as it felt it was too slow and I was missing out on lots of moves.
As a side note: My logic says that the forex market is ruled my emotions (not supply and demand) as the only thing that can change the supply of a currency is its central bank (and they only change the supply once a month, if that), so if the market's moving it must be due to emotions because there's been no change in valuation. To me there is only optimism (up), pessimism (down) and  indecision (choppy). I want to trade with the trend of the smallest time frame I can manage because emotions change quickly, not slowly. But before placing a trade I (try to) always judge it in regards to it's proximity to LT S&R to avoid any silly losses.  I am also happy to drill out to a higher time frame if I can't get the direction. But essentially I want the fast moves, in fact I actually find them easier to trade as I get information quickly about how they're doing,  so don't micro manage them. My method is no more right or wrong than anyone else's it just suits my logic and psychology better than another strategy would.

Summary:  Strategy performed well. keeping me out of poor chart action.  I was particularly pleased that some of the blogs I respect the most (successful scalpers) are also struggling to find any trades at the moment, which has helped me not question my strategy keeping me out for long periods. I could have performed better by avoiding a silly loss (from not checking for underlying resistance), but I did manage my money well  and kept it small. The only trade that could have made me money was an old strategy of mine based on data but it would have worked, so pleased with that and will put it in to trade big data results.



3 comments:

  1. Is there a guide where I can decipher your abbreviations? xDDD

    PB: Pullback
    HSL: ???

    Thanks for the shoutout :D!!
    Interesting how you consider the market from a down up xD I assume that means you counter-trend trade a lot?

    How long have you been trading exactly by the way? :) Just curious.

    As far as lack of movement, I am also burning out because of the low movement in August. It'd be great if I were a range-bound trader, but trying to test a trend-following system is proving pretty difficult. Not gonna take test results to heart, knowing that August is characteristic of low volatility. X_X All my markets seem to be chillin at the club wtih a beer. T_T

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  2. Yeah I've got my own language!(drives a friend of mine mad).

    Of course I'll put a page up with the abbreviations (I basically started in mid 09 with stocks, but only really started on a FX day trading basis approx 12-18 months ago).

    When did you start?

    Ha, yeah I guess I do counter trend trade a lot. But as you can see from my abbreviations I'm completely insane ;) as such don't really view them as counter trend trades. When day trading to me the market is either overly optimistic or overly pessimistic and so it "should" eventually return to mean (H1 21EMA). I do trend trade most of the time (provided there's a bloody trend!) but have a small set of strong reversal setups that I trade if they occur. The aim being to trade them back into the LT mean (h1 21EMA), which I sort of see as trend trading as they are returning to mean.

    You're so right August can be a nightmare for trends! Think I might go and join the markets in the club for a beer this evening ;)

    have a great weekend sKratch.

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  3. I started forex in january 2012 but have been studying economics at uni for about 4 years, (IDK if that really helps though xD)

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