Summary of Weeks 5&6 Personal Breakdown

Summary: The guide kept me out of poor trading days in the 5th week but in the 6th week I started to doubt it's guidance due to feelings of frustration and greed. I then decided to overrule it and made discretionary trades which lost. The frustration was caused by lack of setups despite there being large moves.  I have noticed this before in times of low volatility and must admit I found it equally frustrating. I use the close of a session as confirmation and in times of low volatility the confirmation can be so explosive (large) the RRR is completely out of whack when the trade finally confirms. This breakdown was entirely emotionally driven,  starting with recency bias (valuing recent results over past results) which lead to outcome bias (valuing the result more highly than the quality of the decision at the time it was made). The fact is the guide was working but I was adapting badly to a period of low volatility and a ranging market and tried to reinvent the wheel! As a side note I have noticed others struggling to find trades too which only compounds the belief that I should not have been questioning my guide. Ultimately this is the first time my strategy has gone through a slow ranging market and it performed well. The next time this happens I know I can trust it.

Most losing days were caused by
1. Ranging market (everyone is struggling in)
2. personal failure:  not trading,  discretionary trades,  not following guide (resulting in discretionary trade)
2. learning days: following guide but noticing where it needed updates which had not yet been added.

I plan to add the following additions to my guide and tidy it up too!

• add 3 consecutive wins /losses =  quitting point 
• added Data trade back in, only profitable trade 
• count consecutive sessions =  use as exit
• check h1 chart on PB to 252 EMA too 
• don't trade if both the trigger and conf suck (trigger body nearer 21EMA,  conf clearly above 8SMA)
• Trade REV trdes thru (ignore) S&R 
• REV to LT trend might be easier as HOLRL (RL = price closes below low of most recent high) (+2) 
• Don't use 8SMA exit on REV setups

Here is a break down of the last 2 weeks

Green = Positives
Red =  Negatives
Orange =  Updates

WEEK 5  -1.2 (could have been 8.4 with new rules)
12th -1.6 (could have been 3.4) trending
Strategy perfromed well i just wasn't around to trade
add 3 consecutive wins /losses =  quitting point
I didn;t trade AM
13th  +2 ranging
lots of XO/XD but patience allowed one 2% trade
14th -0.4 ranging
choppy day, guide kept me out of. 
scalper struggled too
? don't REV to S (rev from 252) if Price has just BO/BD 252 wait for RL/PB? (personal error!)
15th -0.3 (could have been +1) ranging
 choppy day ,  guide kept me out of most
added Data trade back in, only profitable trade
NB:  scalpers struggling to find trades
16th -0.9 (maybe +1.8) large range 
count consective sessions =  use as exit
check h1 chart on PB to 252 EMA too 
??don't use 8SMA exit on REV to 252 trades until in profit??
discretionary trade

WEEK6 -1.4 (could have been 7.8)
19th -0.6 (could have been +1.4) Range + 1 move
possible HOLRL (high of last RL) as BO trade (+1.4)
don't trade if both the trigger and conf suck (trigger body nearer 21EMA,  conf clearly above 8SMA)
range in morning - big move - range in PM
scalpers struggling or not trading
20th +1.4 (could have been 5.4) trend
can I REV trade thru S&R even if less than 1:1? missed big move (+2)
REV to LT trend might be easier as HOLRL (RL = price closes below low of most recent high) (+2)
21st -2.4 (could have been -1) Range
FOMC
scalpers struggling or not trading
big move down,  range AM, Range PM
faults because I traded 2 strategies that i shouldnt have (personal error!)
?REV thru 252 failed exit at 8 would have been less painful?
22nd -1 (could have been +2) Range
scalper struggling again
shouldn't have traded trend trade thru S/R (personal error!)
REV from 252 (rev to S) could have made +2 if i had ignored S&R RRR factors