120813 Probabilities for wins losses and trend

PL: -1.6% -£34.63 . CAP £2479.22

Trades
A.  HSL (+0.8),  exit close against 8SMA.
B. HSL (+2),  exit TPO
C. HSL (+0.6),  exit close against 8SMA
1.  HSL (-0.6),  exit close agaisnt 8SMA
2. HSL (-1), exit ISL hit

Notes
Trades 1 had particularly narrow 8/21 on confirmation.  Although still technically a trade clearly showing weakness.
Trade 2 had managed to reorder it's MA's however the thought occurred to me that there were 3 winners in a row early in the day and why shouldn't I have quit there?! After all my quitting point for losing trades is 3 in a row as it shows my edge isn't working.  While 3 winners in a row show that my strategy is working but I'm running low in terms of probability favour. It's all thoroughly interesting and perplexing at the same time. This is because even if my edge is working I only have a 12.5% (one in eight) chance of winning a 4th consecutive trade in a row. Also as an interesting and maybe more profitable after thought this should also true with long and short trades.  IE 3 long trades  =  probability of a short trade increases to 88% which may in fact be a more profitable way of managing ones trades. Something for me to digest tonight!

Long/Short (Win/Loss) Ratio
	1 Trade	2 Trades	3 Trades	4 Trades	5 Trades	6 Trades	7 Trades
L = Long (win)	L	LL	LLL	LLLL
S = Short (loss)	S	SS	LLS	LLLS
		LS	LSL	LLSL
		SL	SLL	LSLL
			LSS	SLLL
			SLS	LLSS
			SSL	LSSL
			SSS	SSLL
				LSLS
				SLSL
				SLLS
				LSSS
				SLSS
				SSLS
				SSSL
RESULTS	2	4	8	15	30	60	120
100					approx	approx	approx
chance of consecutive Long / Short / Win / Loss %	50.00	25.00	12.50	6.67	3.34	1.67	0.83

Summary:

Great day for strategy and for me as I followed my guide exactly, Plus I've learnt (remembered) basic probability theory. Unfortunately had problems at home which required plumber and being on hold for 45 minutes which kept from trading in the morning.