Wednesday 27 November 2013

Missed the Major TC

UPDATE: this post was written over emotionalized. I placed too much emphasis on the LTTC in this post. Actually the PBs and RLs would have guided me here perfectly well with the aid of short term TLs (10 bars). Trade 1 was a good trade, you just didn't change directions fast enough because you were not concentrating on the PBs and RLs.

P/L:  R -0.2  £-4.84

Initially there were a series of LH =  so was looking for shorts.
1. EMA RL Short, exit tick above a HM good trade. R -0.2
I missed the LT UWTC that trade 1 reversed at. I should have got long off the HM  I used as my exit but at that time there were no obvious DWTL breaks so this would have been a low prob trade. It was only later that I drew the more acute DWTL intersecting price action. 
Trend change:  at 2 after price BO DWTL and made a HH and HL =  long.  this was actually a late trend change. The first happened at the HM I used as my exit for trade 1. But I missed it because I didn't have the LTTC in place or the intersecting (but accurate) DWTL. Ironically this was probably the best trade of the session.
2. There were a HH and HL after a DWTL so this could have been a long entry but price was still in a large Triangle and I did not feel confident with an entry still inside the triangle. . Actually this was a HL after a reversal to long so should have been traded.


Summary: Despite missing the LT UWTL and later drawing in the intersecting DWTL that reversed trade 1 I still managed to stay with the trend mentally but my life was made significantly harder because of  missing the LTTC and the DWTL that intersected price as they lead to me having a general lack of conviction / feeling of uncertainty/fear in the move up.
The moral of the story is don't go to work unprepared. 
If I had got the LT UWTC on first thing I would have had strong conviction in the trend change (to long) and would likely have got in on the move. This should be the first thing I do: place the LTTC on the chart.
Also had I placed the DWTL defining the move down to the UWTC through price action, but along the clearest route I would have likely have taken the HM reversal that was my exit  in trade one.

ToDo.
Add to Method : Place LTTC on chart first thing.
Add to Guide:  draw TL along clearest route , even if it intersects price.

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