Friday, 8 November 2013

Ws / Ms and general weaknesses

Downward TCOS + "W" bottom =  bias Long
1. was an H1 , but was low probability so hope I would have avoided.
2.  was an H2 at 21EMA =  high prob,  would have traded into R/prior high (1 : 1.5)
3. is a TC OS
4. was an M2S (21EMA PB) =  high prob scalp into prior highs (1 : 1)
between bars 4 and 5 bars really started overlapping making any setup unlikely to work...
5. was a failed L1 / messy "M" top that couldn't even take out the low's of the 1st leg down and more importantly the  UWTL, making...
6.  H3 (failed L1) a high probability long scalp at least into 252EMA (1 : 1)


Summary: I know this stuff but sometimes it's good to hammer this stuff home...
1. overlapping bars are not good to trade around or in.
2. When overlapping bars occur I am better off waiting for a higher probability trade, have a bit of patience!
3. A W 2nd leg up should take out the high of the 1st leg,  if not this shows considerable weakness. The W bottom before my session started is an example of a strong W bottom,as the 2nd leg surpassed the 1st leg's high).
4.  a M top 2nd leg should take out the low of the 1st leg, if not this shows considerable weakness. The M top during my session is an example of a weak M top, as the 2nd leg could not surpass the low of the 1st leg.
5. Ultimately it's all about trendlines and high lows/ lower highs.  In a confirmed uptrend , if price continues to make higher lows, I've got no excuse not to get long at every opportunity (higher low).  The reverse is true for a downtrend.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.