120913 being too hard on myself, looking at M1 TF

PL: -0.7 (-18.76)   CAP £2383.03

Trades:
A. HSL,  couldn't takes as 252EMA just below so RRR less than 1:1
B. HSL,  couldn't takes as 252EMA just below so RRR less than 1:1
C. HSL,  couldn't takes as 252EMA just below so RRR less than 1:1
D. OBS: feels like there's a reversal trade here.  price trends down , tests 252, then RL to 50SMA where a HSL works out , note that the triggers real body touched the 50SMA.
1. Data Trade (-0.7),  exit 8SMA, fault should have been CAPH.  Felt like I was being the dumb money trading into D1 21EMA (I was).
2. HSL (0), realized my mistake and managed to get out break even (price needed to RL to 252)
E. REV to & thru 252 (+0.9),  missed this I got in such a tisswoss over trades 1&2 I gave up for the day.

Notes:
M1 strategy: 8/21/50 must be in alignment: buy on LSH @ 21/50,  sell on HSL @21/50. ISL conf + 2pips / TSL / exit:   FTMNH - ATMNL. IPT 1:2 / S/R
OR Use 221/50 as direction,  price must PB/RL to at least the 21EMA, but not touch the 50SMA.  use LSH / HSL as entry,  ISL trigger high,  IPT

Summary: price flirting around 252EMA,  plus jobs in the PM made the day quite draining for me, a lot of concentration and no reward. I must note here that because there are so few trades that are trade-able my reaction to losses when they occur is over the top (but at least I'm aware of this). The data trade is pissing me off, I feel like I should be fading these moves (NFP's last friday see 060913 post) instead of going with them but I don't know how to trade them correctly ie stop loss, entry , target. This is something I need to work on (having said that I have been getting a lot of help from JMF3 and without his help I doubt I would have had the thought to fade, so this is progress (thank you)). Trade 2 I was damn lucky with to get out BE but this then ruined my confidence in my ability to follow my guide so I quit early and missed trade E ( I'm being too hard on myself). If I'd had E I'd be slightly up for the day. With the current 30- 40 pip ranges
over the last 2 days I've been drilling down to the M1 to see if I can get setups which won't be as affected by the RRR the M5 setups currently are,  I can't see anything obvious using the close of a session as confirmation yet  but will continue to look ( a scalping method is looking very appealing at the moment!). Ultimately though my strategy performed well,  while I did not because I didn't follow it.

110913 Nasty range stayed out of most of it

PL: -0.2 / £3.80  CAP £2401.79

Trades:
A. HSL, couldn't take because price needed to RL to 252EMA and confirmed thru D1 21 EMA (0)
B. LSH, couldn't take because confirmed thru 252EMA.  (-0.5)
C. LSH,  couldn't take because RRR less than 1:1 before meeting D1 R (-0.3)
D. LSH,  couldn't take because conf didn't cls ab 8 and RRR less than 1:1 before meeting D1 R (-1)
1. LSH (-0.2),  exit CBPL
E. SS, couldn't take because RRR less than 1:1 before meeting 252EMA (+1)
F,  HSL, couldn't take because confirmed thru 252EMA. (-0.4)
G. REV to R, couldn't take because RRR less than 1:1 before meeting D1 R (-0.2)
H. LSH,  couldn't take because RRR less than 1:1 before meeting D1 R  (-1.0)
I. LSH ,  couldn't take because RRR less than 1:1 before meeting D1 R  (+2)

Summary:  Just following the guide and avoiding all the trades that didn't meet my criteria . Frustratingly massive and un-tradeable BO late in the day. I followed the rules!  If had taken all the trades I would have been exhausted and down -0.6.  Strategy performed well because it kept me out of all these trades.  A good day for me and my strategy. 

100913 Better psychology concerning actioning plan

P/L: 0 / -£1.20  CAP: £2405.59

Trades:
1. REV to 252,  exit TSL,  fault, should have taken profit at D1 21EMA add to guide. usually trade thru S&R levels when trading back towards 252EMA.  But obviously the D1 21EMA is stronger than the H1 21EMA.
A.  HSL that I luckily missed because I was out, would have made a 0.4 loss

LT Trades:  placed a long on the D1 chart as it triggered ( close above 21EMA)

Notes:
Much happier today, been working on my psychology in particular the emphasis and energy I need to put into executing my plan. Puttingt in the updates for my records...

1. Take Responsibility (of everything in your life) to take control of your Life.

This is a simple decision

2. Direction and Drive charged with Positive Emotion

Explain what you want, why you want it and spend time linking it to desire,  faith,  love, romance, sex,  enthusiasm, hope. A "Think and Grow Rich" method.

3. Plan of Action

create a plan of action in which every step is easy to understand and easy to achieve

4. Action charged with Positive Emotion

Action requires that you action/execute your plan, this is your sole purpose in (working) life so spend time linking it to ( desire,  faith,  love, romance, sex,  enthusiasm,  hope) . If you are actioning/executing your plan you are successful.

5. Fear and Progress

Fear occurs when your imagination focuses on the potential negative outcomes rather than the action/ execution of the logical plan. this is a breakdown, recommit to the plan.

External problems (plan failure, things you cannot prepare for) are not your fault.

all you need to do is points 1. 2. 3. 4.

6. Psychology (overcoming breakdowns, fear and depression)

1. Have Direction and Drive (everyone needs a purpose in life)

2. Acknowledge your achievements ( to update your perception of reality and self)

3. Be positive ,  say your affirmations

4. Be Grateful, say your gratitudes

7. Physiology (maintaining a health body)

1. Go for a walk in the morning to get some fresh air and work your psyhcology

2. do a little exercise in the morning to get some fresh blood and oxygen to the head

3.  do some vigourous exercise 4 times a week to work the heart and lungs and relase endorphins.

4. watch what you eat and drink and get enough sleep.  these can really effecting your psychology.

8. Communicate (with others)

1. it inspires creative thought because you have to think in the third person to explain things

2. it creates help (because you're telling people what you are doing)

3.  it inspires commitment ( because you’re telling people what you’re doing and don’t want to fail)

9. Persist (with actioning your plan)

If you don’t persit with your plan you will never achieve what you want

Summary: Price got stuck on and around the D1 21EMA, H1 21EMA and W1 and D1 S&R defined a range. This was a bit of a bugger for my trend following method. Happy with my discipline, I traded the plan, on days like this I find it very tempting to reinvent the wheel as there are large moves but usually the the RRR is whack if using the close as your signal (imagine scalpers enjoyed the US open). So the guide performed well because it kept me out of these poor RRR trades on the M5 TF.

090913 question threw me off

PL: -0.5 (-11.81)  CAP £2405.77

Trades:
A.  LSH , avoided due to rules
1. LSH (-0.4),  discretionary shouldn't have taken due to BO of R
B. LSH , correctly avoided.
C. LSH (-0.4)  Should have taken (question threw me off)
D.  LSH (+2)  Should have taken (question threw me off)

Longterm Trade: closed due to hitting TSL

Summary: Short post because blogger crashed and I can't be fucked to right the whole thing again. In short  questioned a part of my guide concerning the 252EMA and requiring PB/RL after a BO/BD of it. Was getting confused about XO/XD of the 252 on the PB/RL. Basically I only need to worry about the initial PB/RL after the BO/BD ( the XO/XD on the PB/RL don't matter). This question upset my thinking resulting in me not taking trades I could have (there was a XO/XD that I was concerned about from laast week and this is why this question and worry was prevalent today). Guide performed well, I didn't (but not that badly either,  considering working through question).

060513 Holy $!?* I booked some profit.

P/L: +1.2% / £27.80  CAP £2417.58

Trades:
1. Data Trade (-0.4) exit CBPL . Not ideal as contradictory data, NFP's down, Unemployment rate down =  stalemate,  went with initial M5 move, not that confident in trade but wanted to follow guide to the letter as a personal exercise because I have struggled to do so this week. This confirms that the result(s) has got to be definitive to trade it.
2. LSH (+1.5) exit TPO @ MN R.

Summary: Boring waiting for NFP's / US jobs. Got to remember (add to guide) only to trade data trades that have clear results.  Today's US jobs trade was shite with NFP's declining but US jobless rate falling,  this is not clear or decisive. Trade 2 was a nice simple setup. See George it's not hard to follow the rules. Got to start next week where I finished this week.

050913 No trades

Trades:  
A.  LSH (+0.6) , exit CBPL, fault missed this.  This is a rare variation of my setup. usually it pulls back  to the 21EMA , in this case it PB to the 252.
B. Data trade (+2),  exit TPO, TBH wasn't sure about this trade because W1 and MN S was just underneath so I didn't take it. Add to guide that I can trade Data through S&R.
C. HSL,  didn't take as guide says not to trend trade through S&R.

Notes: 
working on some stock stuff

Summary:  To be honest not as focused on trading as I should have been today. I shouldn't have missed trade A, I was doing some work on stocks and got distracted. Trade B not so upset about, I think my worry was understandable,  but learnt from it.  Trade C I was correct in not trading as my guide says not to trend trade thru S&R. Guide worked.  To the most part I followed it.

040913 Use the GUIDE! you DINGBAT!

P/L: -1.6% / -£37.94  (should have been -0.2ish) CAP £2389.78

Trades/Analysis:
A. H1 Trending =  respect 252
B. Price needs to RL to 252 after clean BD of it.
C. Trend weakness : Failure To Make New Low - Able to Make New High
D. Rev to 252, didn't trade as poor RRR.
E. LSH,  didn't take as open of confirmation same as W1/MN S
1. REV from 252 (-0.4),  exit 8SMA, should have used close abv prior high  for -0.1 loss.
2. HSL (-1),  exit ISL,  Fault price needed to RL to 252 after clean BD,  this was because I was not using my guide when entering trades. 1. Mark every BO/BD of 252. 2.  use guide for every setup add to guide.
3. REV thru 252 (-0.2), exit CBPL, Entered trade late because feeling edgy about last setup and mistake. Out of room when finally decide to take trade so used MT4 app to place trade (got slipped to fuck, confirmation time took nearly 10 seconds. Won't be using that again)
3 losses in a row  =  stop trading for day!
F. NOT A REV thru 252,  wanted to make a not of this because it initially looks correct but infact the PB to the 21EMA (trigger) was not a PB because price did not close above the low at the 21EMA.
G. REV  thru 252.  Dubious because the 50 and 252 were all out of whack.  Was going to leave this out but thought strictly it is a trade.  exit would have been CBPL. (-0.2)

Notes:
H1: Direction /  Entry : don't know got a basic strategy here but want to firm it up.
Stocks:  can I make stock investing the same in my head as property investing.
Exits:  
Long =  close below prior low (not SS / NRC)
Short = close above prior high (not HM / NRC)
TSL:
Long = close above prior high,  track prior low (not SS / NRC)
Short = close below prior low ,  track prior high  (not HM / NRC)

Summary: Guide worked well,  1st trade was correct, but could have got out slightly earlier for small win, 2nd trade shouldn't have been traded because of prior weakness (personal error, not using guide),  3rd trade was correct and trade-able, unfortunately I didn't enter when i should have and got slipped, so BE trade ended up as small loss ( again my fault).  Personally did not perform well as I did not follow my guide! Positives - money management good, setup identification good. Negatives -  ability to check the setup against guide before entering!

030913 Back to it after August, Notes on exits

P/L: -0.4% / £8.88 CAP £2427.72

Trades:
A. HSL ,  don't trade because confirmation BD W1+MN S.
1. REV to (and thru) 252 (-0.4),  exit CBPL (close below prior low)
B.  HSL,  was out from 1130-1330 so luckily missed this trade that didn't workout.
C. HSL,  didn't take this trade because 8/21 was too tight on trigger.
D. REV to 252 ,  didn't take because RRR less than 1:1 before meeting 252EMA.
E. Gap down on News

Notes:
Watched a couple of videos today on trading. Ari Kiev, I basically got from it stuff I already knew from his books but a good reminder to , set a goal, take responsibility for it by doing whatever work is needed to achieve it and a note on actually timing with a stop watch your discomfort as it occurs in an effort to over come it.
Some exits / TSL I spotted. Using closes above / below prior sessions high /  low (see guide).

Summary:  Great to see price moving but TBH I had a feeling it was going to bang straight into W1 and MN S and do naf all, which it did until news. At least price seems to be making a home beneath W1 and MN S so hopefully the downside should be free to trend.  No bias just an observation, I don't care where price goes as long it moves.  Happy with personal performance as I did everything I should have.  Happy with strategy as it kept me out of most of the poor action. Good day.

300813 No trading (as planned) Psychology issues

Trades:
A. LOLPB (+2) exit TPO
B. REV @ 252 (-0.2),  exit 8 SMA
C.  HSL (-0.4),  exit TSL
D.  HSL , don't trade because D1 R just beneath =  poor RRR
E.  HSL (+2),  exit TSL, hope I would have taken this trade as price had broken D1 R and RL so a short made sense.

LT Trade
1. I have a very basic setup on the D1 chart, which is buy when price closes above the 21EMA and sell when it closes below it.  Today price closed below the D1 21EMA so triggered a LT short for me...

Notes:
So today is the fourth day I haven't traded. This was intentional as I struggled adapting to the lower liquidity in August. However it took until late last week  for me to realize this,  so figured I may as well wait for September to start seeing that I only had 4 working days to wait (the UK, we had a bank holiday on Monday).
Despite knowing that I had a week's "holiday" I have  not enjoyed my time at all because I have had no direction. I have withered in my act not to trade. Not having to get up on time, not having to do my prep,  not having to wait for trades, not having to place trades, not having to manage trades have resulted in me having no purpose.  This week I have been a trader who doesn't trade. I have been nothing.
To me this boils down to something I've worked quite hard on in my psychology blog. Everyone needs a purpose. When I am direction-less I have no reason to be, so generally find myself feeling low. Ultimately this week I have denied myself a purpose (albeit for the right reason) and although I have not quite fallen in to the "low" feeling, I have certainly felt antsy, anxious and unhappy.
As I write this one question and one observation spring to mind.
Q1. Did I really need to take a break for the rest of the week?  I had in fact done quite a bit to overcome my problems and reorganize my guide over  the weekend.
A1. YES I did need to take a break. Sure I had done some work on my guide over the weekend but on commencing trading on the Tuesday morning some glaring holes came to light. These "holes" were not actually problems with setups or analysis  but guide order. It simply wasn't clear or concise enough to work and trade from easily. It needed deciphering (this was due to recent updates). So yes it has been frustrating watching the markets move without me and of course my ego has assumed that I would have placed every trade perfectly, but in reality without a clear guide this would have been impossible.
OB: My Direction and Drive are focused solely on trading so clearly when I'm not trading, I'm going to have no direction and fell low. It stands to reason a simple fix for this would be to add to my Direction and Drive an additional purpose (and a reason for it)  unrelated to trading, so when I am not trading I still have purpose and my subconscious will remain happy. (I'll get onto this!)

Summary:  So another day not trading. Again just recording the chart action for my records. Significant work on psychology today, and feeling much better.

290813 No trades - re writing guide

Trades
A. HSL (-0.2) ,  exit 8 SMA
B. HSL (-0.4),  exit 8SMA
C. HSL (+2),  exit TPO
D.  LOLPB (-0.2),  exit 8SMA
E.  HSL (+2), exit TPO

Summary:  again just recording the trades that I hope I would have taken.  All pretty clear and easy spots so don't see why I wouldn't have,  obvious trend down. Bit frustrating leaving 3.2% on the table, but you can't trade without a plan so did the right thing.  

280813 No trading (house keeping)

Trades:
A.  HSL , Hope I wouldn't have traded because 8/21 were super tight and nasty
B. HSL , Hope I wouldn't have traded because 8/21 were super tight and nasty
C. HSL (+2),  Hope I would have traded cos 8/21 were nice and clear on trigger, and despite a XO before confirm.
D.  REV to (thru) 252 (-0.3),  hope I would have traded , Hope I would have exited because another trade triggered
E.  REV at 252 (+2),  Hope I would have traded close below shooting star that hit both 252 and H1 R

Summary:  no trades, day spent doing boring shit (tax return etc) that needed to be done.  Volume is definitely coming back in and strategy is performing better. Not much else to say just wanted to record the chart so I can reference it in the future.

270813 Trades, but didn't take any!

P/L: 0% / £0.00  CAP: £2438.04

Trades:
A.  H1 ranging = can trade thru 252EMA
B.  Interesting REV to Trend but on 252,  feel like there's something in this?
C. REV thru 252 (0)
D. REV thru 252 (+2)
E.  HSL (-0.6)
F.  HSL (+0.4)
G.  REV to 252 (+2)

Summary: Just not with it today, doubting my strategy and setups despite having gone over them this weekend and proving that they work.  This is the remains of last weeks break down,  having realised that it was me who was fucking up I'm doubting whether I can trust myself. Good news is I can recognize this so I am definitely coming out the other side. Of course the day I decide I can't trust myself is the day with the easiest trades in a fortnight arrive! Went over guide tidying it up but need to type it up.  Doubt I'll trade tomorrow been dodging my tax return for a months so going to do that and type up the guide.

Summary of Weeks 5&6 Personal Breakdown

Summary: The guide kept me out of poor trading days in the 5th week but in the 6th week I started to doubt it's guidance due to feelings of frustration and greed. I then decided to overrule it and made discretionary trades which lost. The frustration was caused by lack of setups despite there being large moves.  I have noticed this before in times of low volatility and must admit I found it equally frustrating. I use the close of a session as confirmation and in times of low volatility the confirmation can be so explosive (large) the RRR is completely out of whack when the trade finally confirms. This breakdown was entirely emotionally driven,  starting with recency bias (valuing recent results over past results) which lead to outcome bias (valuing the result more highly than the quality of the decision at the time it was made). The fact is the guide was working but I was adapting badly to a period of low volatility and a ranging market and tried to reinvent the wheel! As a side note I have noticed others struggling to find trades too which only compounds the belief that I should not have been questioning my guide. Ultimately this is the first time my strategy has gone through a slow ranging market and it performed well. The next time this happens I know I can trust it.

Most losing days were caused by
1. Ranging market (everyone is struggling in)
2. personal failure:  not trading,  discretionary trades,  not following guide (resulting in discretionary trade)
2. learning days: following guide but noticing where it needed updates which had not yet been added.

I plan to add the following additions to my guide and tidy it up too!

• add 3 consecutive wins /losses =  quitting point 
• added Data trade back in, only profitable trade 
• count consecutive sessions =  use as exit
• check h1 chart on PB to 252 EMA too 
• don't trade if both the trigger and conf suck (trigger body nearer 21EMA,  conf clearly above 8SMA)
• Trade REV trdes thru (ignore) S&R 
• REV to LT trend might be easier as HOLRL (RL = price closes below low of most recent high) (+2) 
• Don't use 8SMA exit on REV setups

Here is a break down of the last 2 weeks

Green = Positives
Red =  Negatives
Orange =  Updates

WEEK 5  -1.2 (could have been 8.4 with new rules)
12th -1.6 (could have been 3.4) trending
Strategy perfromed well i just wasn't around to trade
add 3 consecutive wins /losses =  quitting point
I didn;t trade AM
13th  +2 ranging
lots of XO/XD but patience allowed one 2% trade
14th -0.4 ranging
choppy day, guide kept me out of. 
scalper struggled too
? don't REV to S (rev from 252) if Price has just BO/BD 252 wait for RL/PB? (personal error!)
15th -0.3 (could have been +1) ranging
 choppy day ,  guide kept me out of most
added Data trade back in, only profitable trade
NB:  scalpers struggling to find trades
16th -0.9 (maybe +1.8) large range 
count consective sessions =  use as exit
check h1 chart on PB to 252 EMA too 
??don't use 8SMA exit on REV to 252 trades until in profit??
discretionary trade

WEEK6 -1.4 (could have been 7.8)
19th -0.6 (could have been +1.4) Range + 1 move
possible HOLRL (high of last RL) as BO trade (+1.4)
don't trade if both the trigger and conf suck (trigger body nearer 21EMA,  conf clearly above 8SMA)
range in morning - big move - range in PM
scalpers struggling or not trading
20th +1.4 (could have been 5.4) trend
can I REV trade thru S&R even if less than 1:1? missed big move (+2)
REV to LT trend might be easier as HOLRL (RL = price closes below low of most recent high) (+2)
21st -2.4 (could have been -1) Range
FOMC
scalpers struggling or not trading
big move down,  range AM, Range PM
faults because I traded 2 strategies that i shouldnt have (personal error!)
?REV thru 252 failed exit at 8 would have been less painful?
22nd -1 (could have been +2) Range
scalper struggling again
shouldn't have traded trend trade thru S/R (personal error!)
REV from 252 (rev to S) could have made +2 if i had ignored S&R RRR factors

220813 need to stop and look into the last couple of weeks

P/L: -1% / £24.44  CAP: £2438.04

Trades:
A.  H1 ranging
B.  trade with trend freely as price has PB to 252EMA
C. LSH  (buy on PB on close above lowest session's high), untradeable because MN R over heard so RRR less than 1:1
D. Setup resembling a REV to S, however missing the PB to 252.
1.  LSH (-1), traded confirmation through MN R with an aim of trading into 252EMA.  Exit ISL (initial stop loss).
E. LSH couldn't trade because it BO 252EMA
F. REV to S I didn't trade because MN S just below.  thinking of revising this.
G. HSL, missed exit close ag 8SMA
H. REV to 252 variation ( close against prior RL high + H1 S/R.

Summary:
God I'm stuck at the moment.  I think this might have something to do with adding more and more S&R levels and fearing trading through them.  Taking tmrw off trading strategy to view the past weeks trading and delve deeper. Strategy not really working, neither am I.  Don't know if this is because of additions to my guide or because August is slow, work tomorrow will shed some light on it.  It might be as easy as reverting to an older version of my guide or as simple as the strategy is going through a draw down.  But at the moment I'm unsure which it is so feel it's best to stop momentarily and look into it. Also fits nicely into UK bank holiday this coming Monday.  So I can have tmrw off and although working it will be at a slower pace so will have a 4 day weekend which is probably a good thing as I've wound myself up tighter than a ducks arse and a little R&R and perspective will probably be a good thing.